Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM EST...TORNADO WATCH EXTENDED INTO PIEDMONT PER
COORDINATION WITH SPC. WIND PRODUCTS EXTENDED IN TIME TO MATCH TIM
OF TORNADO WATCH.

AS OF 130 PM...MAIN ACTION WILL BE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO AS A
QLCS PRECEDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENTLY A BROKEN LINE IS STILL OVER EASTERN TN...BUT MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY AND ENTER
GSP'S WESTERN NC COUNTIES BY 4PM...AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT
A STRONG VEERING WIND FIELD ALOFT PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT AND
RESULTANT HIGH HELICITY. 50+KT JET EXTENDS BELOW 5KFT...SO MAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
OCCUR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BREAKING
LINE SEGMENTS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT WITH RAPID CLEARING OCCURRING BEHIND COLD FRONT...ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY POST FRONTAL NW WINDS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN ALMOST 100% INSOLATION AND TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE. USED A MOS BLEND
FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...SHORT WAVES TO OUR NORTH DIG A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TUE NITE AND WED. THE TROF MOVES OFF SHORE
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES IN ON THU. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUE NITE GIVES WAY TO A DRY BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES THRU THE AREA WED NITE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
RIDGED INTO THE AREA THU. THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WX WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL LOWS TUE
NITE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND BE
BREEZY AT TIMES WED NITE AND THU AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. EXPECT A
SMALL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW BRINGS IN SOME
MOISTURE...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER. THE WINDS
WILL KEEP THE ATMOS SOMEWHAT MIXED AND THE SCT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
RADIATION WED NITE WITH LOWS ENDING UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
THU SHOULD BE NEAR TO ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLER AIR
MASS MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z FRIDAY
WITH NEARLY FLAT/ZONAL H5 FLOW OVER THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT AND THEN TRANSLATE THE FEATURE EASTWARD. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED
OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS STILL CONSIDERABLY FASTER
AND LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE THE OLDER 00Z ECMWF LAGS BY NEARLY 24HRS
AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED H5 LOW BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER TROF
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A BRIEF COLD AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SFC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REMAINS UNCLEAR WITH OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE FCST. THE FASTER GFS DEVELOPS A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SFC LOW AND MOVES A COLD FRONT OVER THE FCST AREA
LATE SAT/EARLY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW FARTHER SE AND
DOES NOT PUSH A FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE SUN. THE EC ALSO HAS SOME
HEALTHY LOOKING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTREME NE
GA EARLY MON. ONCE THE LOW FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...THINGS SHOULD
DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MORE AND KEEPS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA THRU EARLY MONDAY. IF THE EC SOLUTION DOES WORK OUT...WE CAN
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ON SUN WITH THE FROPA. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO ON FRI WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE AND WARM TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WEDGE ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEEP MIXED LAYER PROMOTING STIFF SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
AIRFIELD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARL;Y THIS EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF THUNDER/LOW
MVFR CONDTIONS FROM ABOUT 23Z-01Z WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERHAPS A PEAK NW GUST IN EXCESS OF 40KT. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT
(TO VFR) BY 05Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND THEN TO THE NE
AROUND 12Z TUE.

ELSEWHERE...NEARLY THE SAME STORY WITH STRONG SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. SOME WIND SHEAR INDICATED
ACROSS UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A PEAK NW GUST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN EXCESS OF 40KT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
05Z (VFR) WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND THEN NE ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMIANTE THRU THU. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-012230-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
521 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 33 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-012230-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
521 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 33 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             2 NNW TURNERSBURG       35.93N  80.82W
02/28/2011  M0.88 INCH       IREDELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             STATESVILLE             35.79N  80.89W
02/28/2011  E0.75 INCH       IREDELL            NC   PUBLIC

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             STATESVILLE             35.79N  80.89W
02/28/2011  E0.75 INCH       IREDELL            NC   PUBLIC

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATESVILLE             35.79N  80.89W
02/28/2011                   IREDELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENWOOD                35.61N  81.98W
02/28/2011                   MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1.5 TO 2 MILE WIDE SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE IN GLENWOOD.
            TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND CARS.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>006-010-282300-
ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER
PICKENS-HART-STEPHENS-
521 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ANDERSON...FRANKLIN...HART...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN
OCONEE...SOUTHERN PICKENS AND SOUTHERN STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 600
PM EST...

AT 518 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO 5 MILES
NORTH OF PINEFIELD CROSSROADS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BROADWAY
  LAKE...LAKE HARTWELL...WHITWORTH...VANNA...ROYSTON...REED CREEK...
  NUBERG...MARTIN...LAVONIA...HARTWELL...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...
  EASTANOLEE...CARNESVILLE...CANON...BOYDVILLE...BOWMAN...
  BOWERSVILLE...AVALON...WILLIAMSTON...TOWNVILLE...STARR...SANDY
  SPRINGS...SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK...PIEDMONT...PENDLETON...
  PELZER...OAKWAY...FOUNTAIN INN...FORK SHOALS...FAIR PLAY...
  CLEMSON...CENTRAL...BELTON AND ANDERSON.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3422 8309 3426 8312 3425 8314 3437 8339
      3446 8340 3448 8347 3451 8345 3461 8318
      3460 8316 3462 8314 3476 8276 3471 8217
      3462 8221 3416 8298

KRENTZ