Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

696 
WWUS52 KGSP 281952
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

NCC115-121-199-282015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110228T2015Z/
MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-MITCHELL NC-
252 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EST
FOR WEST CENTRAL MITCHELL...WESTERN YANCEY AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF FAUST...OR
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SWISS...RAMSEYTOWN...POPLAR AND BURNSVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OTHER STURDY STRUCTURE IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 8225 3579 8228 3582 8237 3581 8244
      3589 8268 3605 8264 3603 8259 3597 8260
      3597 8255 3600 8248 3608 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 268DEG 39KT 3604 8253

$$

BSH

164 
WWUS52 KGSP 282014
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

NCC115-121-199-282024-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110228T2015Z/
MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-MITCHELL NC-
314 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MITCHELL...
WESTERN YANCEY AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315
PM EST...

LAT...LON 3607 8225 3579 8228 3582 8237 3581 8244
      3589 8268 3605 8264 3603 8259 3597 8260
      3597 8255 3600 8248 3608 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 268DEG 39KT 3604 8223

$$

BSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM...MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS WAS TO TRY AND FINE TUNE
POPS/TIMING OF QLCS BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. THIS RESULTED
IN A MORE DETAILED POP GRID/WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE SCALING BACK
POPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERASTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS/WESTERN UPSTATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EAST
CENTRAL TN WILL REACH THE TN/NC BORDER BETWEEN 20-21Z AND THEN
SWEEP EASTWARD AND MOVE THROUGH AREAS E OF THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY
IN THE 23Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS STILL DEPICTING STRONG SHEAR/HIGH
HELICITY WITH CAPES PEAKING IN THE 500-600 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MODEL COMP REFL OFF THE WRF/HRR/SPC 4KM INDICATES THAT A
QLCS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED/DISCREET
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT IS LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS/BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. ADJUSTED TEMPS
BASED ON LATEST LAV AND USED DEWPOINTS FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH
SHOULD DO BETTER THAN THE MOS WITH THE ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 04Z AND EXPECT RAPID CLEARING
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY/POST FRONTAL WINDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION REGIME THAT FOLLOWS. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND LAKE WIND ADVSRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES RETREATS TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AND WE COME UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. HAVE FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN
THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE MOS BEING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE.
AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT COULD
BE A PROBLEM IF WE FAIL TO GET SOME DECENT RAINFALL TODAY...ALTHO
WINDS WILL NOT BE ABOVE ABOUT 10 KT. BY THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TRANSITORY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG AND WILL WEDGE DOWN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING NE FLOW SHOULD DROP OUR HIGH TEMPS A
CATEGORY OR TWO FOR THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM MONDAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE COULD HAVE TO DEAL
WITH A BRIEF COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
IT WILL GET LOCKED IN AND SHOULD KEEP DRIFTING OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TELLTALE
SIGNS OF A WEDGE DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD FORCE UPSLOPE DRIZZLE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH SHOULD CREATE A COOL POOL IN THE USUAL SPOT. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE FINE TUNED THE LOW END POP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXPANDING FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY...BUT
WHAT WE HAVE MIGHT PROVE TO BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC IF THE UPSLOPE
CREATES MORE LIGHT RAIN THAN DRIZZLE.

THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IS LOW
CONFIDENCE OWING TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FASTER GFS SHOWS THIS MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY WHICH MIGHT ALLOW US TO SALVAGE SUNDAY...BUT THE SLOWER
ECMWF IS KEYING ON SUNDAY FOR ITS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEEP MIXED LAYER PROMOTING STIFF SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
AIRFIELD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
THUNDER/LOW MVFR CONDTIONS FROM ABOUT 23Z-01Z WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PERHAPS A PEAK NW GUST IN EXCESS OF 40KT. EXPECT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT (TO VFR) BY 05Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND THEN
TO THE NE AROUND 12Z TUE.

ELSEWHERE...NEARLY THE SAME STORY WITH STRONG SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. SOME WIND SHEAR INDICATED
ACROSS UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A PEAK NW GUST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN EXCESS OF 40KT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
05Z (VFR) WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND THEN NE ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMIANTE THRU THU. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC DEVELOPS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-011130-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
627 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME TIME IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT ALL OR PART OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH AT SOME
POINT LATER TODAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-011130-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
627 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT ALL OR PART OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY PART OF
THE EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

NCZ033-049-050-281900-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
125 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN
AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EST...

AT 120 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BANNER HILL...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BULADEAN...
  NEWLAND...

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BULADEAN AND NEWLAND...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3604 8186 3600 8247 3610 8239 3613 8230
      3613 8227 3615 8222 3615 8217 3611 8212
      3611 8207 3613 8205 3613 8203 3626 8195
      3626 8191

BSH