Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

497 
WWUS52 KGSP 282044
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

NCC075-173-282115-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110228T2115Z/
GRAHAM NC-SWAIN NC-
344 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EST
FOR SWAIN AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALMOND...OR 6 MILES
WEST OF BRYSON CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LUADA...ALARKA...CHEROKEE AND SMOKEMONT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OTHER STURDY STRUCTURE IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8351 3558 8348 3559 8318 3556 8316
      3551 8318 3551 8324 3545 8336 3541 8337
      3540 8335 3534 8333 3529 8365 3526 8369
      3523 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 272DEG 36KT 3541 8354

$$

BSH

887 
WWUS52 KGSP 282111
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

NCC075-173-282121-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110228T2115Z/
GRAHAM NC-SWAIN NC-
411 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SWAIN AND EASTERN
GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM EST...

LAT...LON 3557 8351 3558 8348 3559 8318 3556 8316
      3551 8318 3551 8324 3545 8336 3541 8337
      3540 8335 3534 8333 3529 8365 3526 8369
      3523 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 272DEG 36KT 3539 8321

$$

BSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...MAIN ACTION WILL BE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO AS A
QLCS PRECEDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENTLY A BROKEN LINE IS STILL OVER EASTERN TN...BUT MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY AND ENTER
GSP'S WESTERN NC COUNTIES BY 4PM...AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT
A STRONG VEERING WIND FIELD ALOFT PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT AND
RESULTANT HIGH HELICITY. 50+KT JET EXTENDS BELOW 5KFT...SO MAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
OCCUR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BREAKING
LINE SEGMENTS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT WITH RAPID CLEARING OCCURRING BEHIND COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY POST FRONTAL NW WINDS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY RESULTING
IN ALMOST 100% INSOLATION AND TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE. USED A MOS BLEND
FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...SHORT WAVES TO OUR NORTH DIG A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TUE NITE AND WED. THE TROF MOVES OFF SHORE
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES IN ON THU. AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUE NITE GIVES WAY TO A DRY BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES THRU THE AREA WED NITE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
RIDGED INTO THE AREA THU. THE RESULTING SENSIBLE WX WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL LOWS TUE
NITE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND BE
BREEZY AT TIMES WED NITE AND THU AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. EXPECT A
SMALL INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW BRINGS IN SOME
MOISTURE...BUT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN LATER. THE WINDS
WILL KEEP THE ATMOS SOMEWHAT MIXED AND THE SCT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
RADIATION WED NITE WITH LOWS ENDING UP A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
THU SHOULD BE NEAR TO ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLER AIR
MASS MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z FRIDAY
WITH NEARLY FLAT/ZONAL H5 FLOW OVER THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT AND THEN TRANSLATE THE FEATURE EASTWARD. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WRT THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED
OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS STILL CONSIDERABLY FASTER
AND LESS AMPLIFIED WHILE THE OLDER 00Z ECMWF LAGS BY NEARLY 24HRS
AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED H5 LOW BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE DEEPER TROF
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN MISS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A BRIEF COLD AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SFC PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REMAINS UNCLEAR WITH OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SENSIBLE FCST. THE FASTER GFS DEVELOPS A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SFC LOW AND MOVES A COLD FRONT OVER THE FCST AREA
LATE SAT/EARLY SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW FARTHER SE AND
DOES NOT PUSH A FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE SUN. THE EC ALSO HAS SOME
HEALTHY LOOKING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NC AND EXTREME NE
GA EARLY MON. ONCE THE LOW FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...THINGS SHOULD
DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MORE AND KEEPS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWFA THRU EARLY MONDAY. IF THE EC SOLUTION DOES WORK OUT...WE CAN
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ON SUN WITH THE FROPA. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO ON FRI WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE AND WARM TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WEDGE ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...DEEP MIXED LAYER PROMOTING STIFF SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
AIRFIELD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EARL;Y THIS EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF THUNDER/LOW
MVFR CONDTIONS FROM ABOUT 23Z-01Z WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERHAPS A PEAK NW GUST IN EXCESS OF 40KT. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT
(TO VFR) BY 05Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND THEN TO THE NE
AROUND 12Z TUE.

ELSEWHERE...NEARLY THE SAME STORY WITH STRONG SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME. SOME WIND SHEAR INDICATED
ACROSS UPSTATE SC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A PEAK NW GUST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN EXCESS OF 40KT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY
05Z (VFR) WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AND THEN NE ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...A DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMIANTE THRU THU. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC DEVELOPS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-011130-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
627 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOME TIME IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN OUT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT ALL OR PART OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH AT SOME
POINT LATER TODAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-011130-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
627 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT ALL OR PART OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE INCLUDED IN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY PART OF
THE EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

NCZ033-049-050-281900-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
125 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN
AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EST...

AT 120 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BANNER HILL...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BULADEAN...
  NEWLAND...

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BULADEAN AND NEWLAND...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3604 8186 3600 8247 3610 8239 3613 8230
      3613 8227 3615 8222 3615 8217 3611 8212
      3611 8207 3613 8205 3613 8203 3626 8195
      3626 8191

BSH