Severe Thunderstorm Warning 625, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER TROF AND SFC
FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30 KTS OF
SHEAR...SVR STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THEREFORE...A WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THE CWFA. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE STILL THE MAIN THREAT
BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STORM MOVEMENT...FLOODING
IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...ANY TRAINING CELLS OR HEAVY RAIN IN AREAS
THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS...COULD CREATE ISOLATED
FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFT/EARLY EVE
AS THE SHORT WAVE/FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
COULD LINGER OVER THE NC MTNS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THERE. A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SO LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER...ESP ACROSS NC. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES THRU
THE UPPER TROF. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE OUT OF THE MTNS
AND ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE LEAST...
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THAT AREA. NLY FLOW OVER THE UPSTATE AND
NE GA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION AND KEEP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
WITH LOWER THICKNESSES...HIGHS WILL BE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE MTNS AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH THE AXIS OF THE H5 TROF JUST TO OUR NE AND AN UPPER RIDGE
PUSHING FARTHER EAST AND INTO THE SE CONUS. WE CAN EXPECT HEIGHTS TO
RISE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON TUES AND THEN LEVEL OFF TO SOME
DEGREE ON WED AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS.

ON TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE
DEPARTING LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COOLER AND
DRIER NWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWFA INTO WED BRINGING
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DEWPTS AND A LACK OF SH AND TS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OVER THE NC/TN BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING LOW
LVL MOISTURE COULD RING OUT A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S FOR THE MTS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SFC
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE
BERMUDA HIGH LATER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY CREATING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER MODEL PROFILES LOOK
PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT AND THERE IS NOT ANY APPRECIABLE UPPER SUPPORT
TO GENERATE LIFT...SO I KEPT THE FCST DRY THRU 00Z THURS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR 2
WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN ANOMALOUS MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AND UPPER
LOW REACHES EASTERN CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS TO THE EASTERN USA.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS AIR
MASS WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...BUT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM NE TO
SE AND THEN TO S...ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CREEP WEST AND NORTH TO
THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR INCREASING POPS. IN
ADDITION...THE REMAINS OF A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH MORE
MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY OR SO
BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE NEAR TERM. CB SHOULD FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS TIMING. W TO SW WINDS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO NW THIS EVENING WHEN CONVECTION DIMINISHES.
WIND BECOMES LIGHT N OVERNIGHT WITH KAVL/KHKY THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS. CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE. ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE MON MORN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AND NLY FLOW INCREASES. LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC SITES
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FORM OVER THE MTNS AND SPREAD EWD.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER TUE-WED. CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
338 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 779 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SUCCESSION...OR IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WILL EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

SCZ003-006-142015-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRAVELERS REST...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FURMAN UNIVERSITY...
  CHERRYDALE POINT...
  TAYLORS...
  GREER...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3489 8250 3490 8251 3504 8248 3505 8222
      3503 8222 3483 8223

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

NCZ048-142030-
MADISON-
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF DEL RIO...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
NEWPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  MARSHALL...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3604 8259 3597 8260 3596 8256 3598 8251
      3578 8256 3574 8265 3583 8294 3588 8291
      3593 8292 3595 8289 3595 8285 3593 8281
      3601 8277 3607 8263

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             5 SSW FOUNTAIN INN      34.63N 82.23W
08/14/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE INMAN             35.03N 82.03W
08/14/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED MAJOR DAMAGE TO 2 MOBILE
            HOMESSOME OUTBUILDINGS AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ESE OF
            INMAN SC.

&&
DAMAGE WAS ON SADDLE RIDGE DR AND JERSEY RD.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE INMAN             35.03N 82.03W
08/14/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED MAJOR DAMAGE TO 2 MOBILE
            HOMES...SOME OUTBUILDINGS AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ESE OF
            INMAN SC.

&&

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
532 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

NCZ509-510-SCZ003-142215-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
532 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALUDA...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRYON...
  TRYON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3522 8216 3520 8219 3519 8221 3517 8221
      3506 8230 3520 8242 3521 8239 3518 8237
      3521 8235 3524 8236 3525 8235 3528 8229

KRENTZ