Severe Thunderstorm Warning 615, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

663 
WWUS52 KGSP 141825
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

NCC089-141835-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0615.000000T0000Z-110814T1900Z/
HENDERSON NC-
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVED EAST AND OUT OF HENDERSON COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3525 8196 3501 8199 3509 8244 3521 8239
      3518 8237 3519 8236 3523 8235 3524 8236
      3525 8235 3528 8235 3529 8234 3529 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 276DEG 13KT 3517 8230

$$

NCC149-SCC045-083-141900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0615.000000T0000Z-110814T1900Z/
SPARTANBURG SC-POLK NC-GREENVILLE SC-
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHERN POLK AND NORTHWESTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TRYON...
  GOWENSVILLE AND COLUMBUS...
  LANDRUM...
  CAMPOBELLO...LAKE BOWEN...INMAN AND FINGERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8196 3501 8199 3509 8244 3521 8239
      3518 8237 3519 8236 3523 8235 3524 8236
      3525 8235 3528 8235 3529 8234 3529 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 276DEG 13KT 3517 8230

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS
ON THE WAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY AS MOIST SLY
FLOW CONTINUES. HEATING MAY BE SLOWED BY MORNING CLOUDS...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENUF BREAKS DEVELOPING TO HELP REACH CURRENT FCST. DEEP
LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING CREATING MORE SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL DRYING
COULD INCREASE DCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD. WITH
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...PW WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WET PAST
FEW DAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER VORT MAX...WILL BRING SHWRS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MRNG. SHEAR WILL INCREASE BUT INSTABILITY STILL
APPEARS MINIMAL. A DAMAGING WIND GUST REMAINS PSBL THOUGH...ALONG
WITH SOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF CELLS TRAIN. EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF AND
ASSOC COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
HEATING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE E CWA THIS AFTN. SPC HAS THE AREA E OF THE MTNS IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG THIS
AFTN. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE W THIS EVE AFTER FROPA BUT
LINGER OVER THE MTNS. WITH DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE SYSTEM
EXPECT MRNG LOWS A COUPLE DEG BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM IS IN STORE AS AN EAST
COAST TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT (FOR AUGUST)...AS
MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO...IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE MTNS AND NORTHERN
TIER MON AFTERNOON...AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS...AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO YIELD SOME POSITIVE CAPE. HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM SHOULD BE FREE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS VERY EARLY
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS WILL GENERALLY ALLOW A MEAN TROUGH TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FALLING HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE (TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE) ON A
DIURNAL BASIS ON THURSDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF
THE AREA FRI/SAT. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE NEAR TERM. CB SHOULD FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE GONE WITH THIS TIMING. W TO SW WINDS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO NW THIS EVENING WHEN CONVECTION DIMINISHES.
WIND BECOMES LIGHT N OVERNIGHT WITH KAVL/KHKY THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS. CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE. ANY
FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE MON MORN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AND NLY FLOW INCREASES. LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC SITES
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS FORM OVER THE MTNS AND SPREAD EWD.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER TUE-WED. CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RB/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151445-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1033 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND PERHAPS SOME
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN SUCCESSION...OR IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER THE PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1238 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND DMG     14 SE YORK              34.85N 81.06W
08/13/2011                   YORK               SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE LARGE PERSIMMON TREE DOWN.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E WARE SHOALS         34.39N 82.21W
08/13/2011                   LAURENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

SCZ001-002-004-005-141815-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
134 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OCONEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SALEM...
  LAKE KEOWEE...
  NORRIS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3492 8313 3488 8265 3472 8269 3466 8280
      3474 8317

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

NCZ064-065-509-510-SCZ003-141830-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-POLK
MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHERN
GREENVILLE...SOUTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF LITTLE RIVER...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HENDERSONVILLE...
  FLAT ROCK...
  NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...
  TRYON...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3530 8215 3519 8218 3519 8221 3507 8222
      3506 8223 3516 8267 3534 8263

07