Severe Thunderstorm Warning 511, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

597 
WWUS52 KGSP 042026
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCC027-042036-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0511.000000T0000Z-110704T2045Z/
CALDWELL NC-
426 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8146 3608 8144 3608 8142
      3602 8133 3594 8134 3591 8156 3600 8161
      3606 8163 3612 8163 3613 8160 3613 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 245DEG 9KT 3604 8144

$$

BSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND ADD HEADLINES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 1515Z...SHALLOW CU EXISTED ACROSS THE MTN PEAKS LATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IN
ADDITION...A THIN LINE OF CU EXISTED OVER EAST TN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION INITIATION
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
COVERAGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD AND DEVELOP WITHIN A LEE TROF
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LIKELY TO CATE
POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KFFC AND KGSO OBSERVED THE FZL BETWEEN 14.5 TO
15 KFT...PLACING THE 55 DBZ CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26.5 KFT. PW VALUES
RANGED FROM 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WITH K-INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES 3500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE MTNS WITH
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. DCAPE VALUES
RANGE AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE HIGH FZL AND MOISTURE CONTENT IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND
NC FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...HPC PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY MORE OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION TO THE SLOWER MORE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH ON
THE NAM FOR TUE. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF
AND IT/S WHAT I/VE GONE WITH FOR THIS FORECAST AS WELL. LLVL
THICKNESSES IMPLY ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE L-M90S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
CAPPING DURING THE AFTN AND CONVECTION MAY GET A LITTLE BIT OF A
LATE START. HOWEVER...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MTNS
DURING THE LATE AFTN...CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE GFS HAS IT/S
BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND THIS LOOKS
LIKE AN EVENT THAT COULD GO WELL PAST SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT STEEP...BUT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT A LITTLE ON THE GFS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MICROBURST PRODUCING PULSE SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS CONSIDERING HOW HOT THE BNDRY LAYER WILL
BE.

THE WEAK LLVL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE ON WED...BUT WE WILL
BE UNDER AND H5 SHEAR AXIS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. WITH HIGH LAYER RH/S AND MODEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN IN THE AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NEIGHBORS. LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY
BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO WED. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN
WED EVENING. WITH A MODEST SWLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW...SOME STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. OVERALL THE THINKING IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROF LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT REGARDING THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE EAST WITH
THE EC HANGING ONTO THE TROF THE LONGEST. A SEMI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG LEVEL OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NUMEROUS THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7
FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...1000-500
MB FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THE THREAT
OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A PRIMARY CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LIMITING MAX HEATING JUST A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CERTAINLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TAFS WILL
CONTAIN A CB IN THE SKY FIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TEMPOS AT
KAVL/KHKY/KCLT FOR TSRA. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE PRIME AREAS FOR FOG TONIGHT. I WILL FORECAST AT
LEAST MVFR FOG DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS FOR THE TSRA TEMPO SITES.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL APPEARS JUST AS HIGH TOMORROW...BUT NOT BEFORE
18Z.

OUTLOOK...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK AS ONE
FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE VICINITY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORNING MVFR FOG IS LIKELY...AT LEAST IN
THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTN/EVENING TSTMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ001>014-019-051700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED AREAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER. STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AS YOU CARRY OUT YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-501>510-051700-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ049-505-506-041930-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-YANCEY-
256 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF BUSICK...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
MARION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JAMES...

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BUSICK...LAKE JAMES AND MARION...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3582 8195 3582 8196 3582 8197 3581 8199
      3576 8192 3564 8191 3563 8222 3580 8227
      3584 8195

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ033-501-041930-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
305 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLOBE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3612 8181 3613 8173 3613 8155 3610 8151
      3610 8148 3607 8148 3602 8180 3614 8185
      3615 8182

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ064-065-041945-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
317 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HENDERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ETOWAH...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3524 8243 3525 8280 3534 8282 3538 8279
      3544 8255 3542 8254 3543 8253 3544 8253
      3545 8251 3545 8247

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ029-SCZ011-042000-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-
328 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF CALHOUN FALLS...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ELBERTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CALHOUN FALLS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3397 8260 3397 8264 3398 8266 3398 8272
      3409 8274 3416 8241 3405 8239 3406 8246
      3407 8248 3407 8253 3401 8259 3396 8256

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ028-029-042000-
ELBERT-HART-
332 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHERN
HART COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOWMAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NUBERG...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3414 8306 3417 8311 3420 8310 3423 8308
      3427 8312 3429 8310 3435 8281 3433 8279
      3413 8275 3411 8304

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

SCZ006-012-042000-
GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-
334 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF FORK SHOALS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SIMPSONVILLE...
  FOUNTAIN INN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3474 8241 3479 8216 3477 8213 3475 8211
      3474 8208 3471 8206 3471 8207 3468 8203
      3459 8201 3456 8237

RB