Severe Thunderstorm Warning 507, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

016 
WWUS52 KGSP 041848
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCC115-199-041858-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0507.000000T0000Z-110704T1915Z/
MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-
248 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN YANCEY AND
EASTERN MADISON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3607 8238 3590 8228 3578 8274 3601 8278
      3607 8263 3604 8259 3597 8260 3596 8256
      3602 8246 3608 8242 3607 8240 3608 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 260DEG 14KT 3598 8247

$$

RB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND ADD HEADLINES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 1515Z...SHALLOW CU EXISTED ACROSS THE MTN PEAKS LATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IN
ADDITION...A THIN LINE OF CU EXISTED OVER EAST TN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION INITIATION
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
COVERAGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE MTNS BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND WITH THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD AND DEVELOP WITHIN A LEE TROF
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LIKELY TO CATE
POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH HIGH CHC ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KFFC AND KGSO OBSERVED THE FZL BETWEEN 14.5 TO
15 KFT...PLACING THE 55 DBZ CORE HEIGHT AROUND 26.5 KFT. PW VALUES
RANGED FROM 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WITH K-INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES 3500 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE MTNS WITH
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. DCAPE VALUES
RANGE AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE HIGH FZL AND MOISTURE CONTENT IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND
NC FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...HPC PREFERS THE SLIGHTLY MORE OPEN AND
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION TO THE SLOWER MORE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH ON
THE NAM FOR TUE. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OLD RUN OF THE ECMWF
AND IT/S WHAT I/VE GONE WITH FOR THIS FORECAST AS WELL. LLVL
THICKNESSES IMPLY ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE L-M90S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
CAPPING DURING THE AFTN AND CONVECTION MAY GET A LITTLE BIT OF A
LATE START. HOWEVER...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MTNS
DURING THE LATE AFTN...CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE GFS HAS IT/S
BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND THIS LOOKS
LIKE AN EVENT THAT COULD GO WELL PAST SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT STEEP...BUT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT A LITTLE ON THE GFS...AND
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MICROBURST PRODUCING PULSE SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS CONSIDERING HOW HOT THE BNDRY LAYER WILL
BE.

THE WEAK LLVL BNDRY WILL BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE ON WED...BUT WE WILL
BE UNDER AND H5 SHEAR AXIS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. WITH HIGH LAYER RH/S AND MODEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AGAIN IN THE AFTN. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NEIGHBORS. LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY
BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO WED. CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN
WED EVENING. WITH A MODEST SWLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW...SOME STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. OVERALL THE THINKING IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROF LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT REGARDING THE RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE EAST WITH
THE EC HANGING ONTO THE TROF THE LONGEST. A SEMI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG LEVEL OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NUMEROUS THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 7
FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT. FURTHERMORE...1000-500
MB FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THE THREAT
OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A PRIMARY CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY LIMITING MAX HEATING JUST A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BASED ON THE LATEST RUC HRRR AND WRF RESPONSE...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN TSTMS EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON THE TERMINAL FROM
MID-AFTERNOON ONWARD AND HAVE MAINTAINED CB MENTION TO COVER THREAT.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT SW WINDS TO CONTINUE AND DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CU
FIELD. MODEL OUTPUT REALLY WANES DEEP CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING
JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF 5-6SM BR BY
SUNRISE. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO ANY WIND SHIFT
OVERNIGHT AS BNDRY SAGS THROUGH THE FA. WILL LEAVE LIGHT SW WINDS
FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME UNRESTRICTED BY 14 UTC.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS THRU MIDDAY AND
EXPAND INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE ON TAP FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD BE A BIT
WORSE THAN PERSISTENCE.

OUTLOOK...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ALL WEEK AS ONE
FRONT DISSIPATES IN THE VICINITY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM
THE NW LATE IN THE WEEK. MORNING MVFR FOG IS LIKELY...AT LEAST IN
THE MTN VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTN/EVENING TSTMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ001>014-019-051700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AFFECTED AREAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER. STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AS YOU CARRY OUT YOUR HOLIDAY PLANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>070-501>510-051700-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1253 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1229 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODRUFF                34.74N 82.03W
07/03/2011                   SPARTANBURG        SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A SMALL TREE WAS DOWN NEAR THE FIRE DEPARTMENT. NO OTHER
            DAMAGE WAS KNOWN AND NO HAIL KNOWN IN WOODRUFF EVEN FROM
            OTHER CALLS IN TOWN.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 34.72N 81.68W
07/03/2011                   UNION              SC   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTED A TREE DOWN AND HAD A PUBLIC REPORT OF
            OTHER TREE LIMBS DOWN ON MILL STREET.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ048-049-041800-
MADISON-YANCEY-
127 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MADISON AND WESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF FAUST...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MADISON AND WESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3602 8239 3586 8236 3584 8265 3600 8263
      3600 8260 3599 8260 3597 8260 3596 8256
      3598 8254 3598 8251 3602 8246

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ048-053-041800-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-
132 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MADISON AND WESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF CANTO...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LEICESTER...

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

LEICESTER...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3581 8261 3559 8261 3563 8285 3564 8287
      3565 8288 3576 8289

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

NCZ063-064-SCZ001-002-041830-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
204 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAPPHIRE...OR 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE TOXAWAY...

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATION...

LAKE TOXAWAY...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3523 8281 3501 8274 3499 8307 3513 8309

BSH