Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

507 
WWUS52 KGSP 052003
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

NCC149-161-052030-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-110605T2030Z/
POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
403 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES...

AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOSTIC...SPINDALE...HARRIS...FOREST CITY...ELLENBORO AND ALEXANDER 
MILLS.

LAT...LON 3544 8192 3534 8173 3519 8184 3519 8203
      3539 8221 3546 8214 3548 8210 3548 8204
      3547 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 317DEG 12KT 3538 8206

$$

HG

421 
WWUS52 KGSP 052028
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

NCC149-161-052038-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-110605T2030Z/
POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
428 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN RUTHERFORD AND
EASTERN POLK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...

AT 428 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THE PREVIOUSLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS 
NEAR THE STATE LINE. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER.

LAT...LON 3544 8192 3534 8173 3519 8184 3519 8203
      3539 8221 3546 8214 3548 8210 3548 8204
      3547 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 342DEG 17KT 3521 8203

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL UNCERTAIN EVEN AT THIS HOUR. GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING A WAVE DROPS ACROSS OUR CWFA IN THE NLY FLOW PROVIDING
SCT COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST...AND ISOLATED AT BEST SW. HOWEVER...
MCS NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER HAS TAKEN A SOUTHWARD TURN. THE MCS COULD
TAKE A SOUTH OR SE TRACK. A SE TRACK WOULD BRING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CWFA WHILE A S TRACK WOULD TAKE IT TO OUR
WEST. TAKING A LOOK AT CURRENT SYSTEM MOVEMENT...CORFIDI VECTORS AND
MEAN H85-H3 WIND...SHOWS THE WRN CWFA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FROM THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL ADD SCT POP TO THE WESTERN CWFA. LATER
SHIFT HAS A COUPLE OF HOURS TO REFINE THE FCST AND GO WITH HIGHER
POP SHOULD THE SITUATION WARRANT. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY IF THE MCS MOVES IN TO HELP ORGANIZE THE STORMS.
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 40 KT RANGE. THE CONVECTION MAY LINGER THRU THE
EVENING AND FINALLY DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT NEAR MIDNIGHT. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUD MUCH OF THE NITE...WITH LOWS AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ATMOS BECOMES UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN PLACE...ATMOS APPEARS TO BE CAPPED ACROSS THE NRN CWFA.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE NE GA...UPSTATE AND THE
WRN MTNS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THESE AREAS. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS
THE SE CONUS DURING THE SHORT RANGE. MODELS AGREE WELL WITH
MAINTAINING A CLOSED 588 DM HIGH ACROSS MIDDLE TN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EAST TO THE TN/NC BORDER BEGINNING MID DAY TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THERE IS TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE OP MODELS WRT TO A SE/WARD
DIVING S/W ON THE FRONT END OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO WARRANT MUCH
CONCERN....BUT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVEC IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATER TUE WITH COLD POOL ORGANIZATION PUSHING
TSTMS INTO THE PIEDMONT INTO THE LATE EVENING. SOUNDINGS REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN OUTSIDE THE NC MTNS WITH THE MLVLS REMAINING TOO
WARM...HOWEVER HIGH AMOUNTS OF ELCAPE COULD BE REALIZED IF AN
ORGANIZED MCS GETS GOING ACROSS THE NC MTNS. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
THE ISOL RANGE FOR TUE EVENING...BUT THIS COULD BE SITUATION TO
WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. ON WED...THE UPPER HIGH AND
STRONG NVA WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE CWFA AND IT WILL BE
LESS LIKELY FOR ANYTHING BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OR MOUNTAIN TOP
CONVECTION FIRING UP. POPS WERE MAINTAINED RIGHT AROUND CLIMO
FOR WED AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WILL REACH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ABOUT 10 ABOVE FOR TUE AND EVEN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
HOTTER ON WED. MINS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR
AREA. A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE AS
HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND. SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS STILL UNCERTAIN ATTM. MCS
NEAR KY/TN BORDER TAKING A SRN JOG AND MAY MISS THE CWFA ENTIRELY.
STILL EXPECTING SOME WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION. ATMOS ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE...SO ANY FORCING SHOULD
SET OFF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE NC SITES STILL THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE ANY TSRA...SO HAVE KEPT CB THERE. LESS CHC OVER SC
SO NO CB. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING SLIGHTLY TO LATEST THINKING. N TO NW
WIND OVER NC WITH W TO NW OVER SC THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMES LIGHT NLY
TO NELY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT OR SO...
THEN MAINLY HIGH VFR CIGS EXPECTED. MTN VALLEY FOG EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN. LIGHT NE WIND WITH DEVELOPING CU EXPECTED THRU THE MORNING
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO AN ISOLATED DIURNAL TSTM THREAT MON AFT THRU
THU WITH RIDGING ALOFT. MTN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
554 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

NCZ507-508-510-052015-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
333 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN POLK AND WESTERN
RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF LAKE LURE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUTHERFORDTON...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3537 8185 3519 8206 3519 8208 3539 8221
      3540 8219 3540 8222 3547 8227 3546 8225
      3550 8223 3553 8217 3552 8214 3554 8205

HG