River Flood Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

027 
WGUS82 KGSP 281329
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
829 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-291329-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0012.111128T2316Z-111130T0740Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.111128T2316Z.111129T0600Z.111129T1940Z.NO/
829 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 7:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 18.0 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED 
  TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING STARTS. FLOODING AT THIS 
  LEVEL WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLOODING THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY TWENTY 
  SIXTH 2010.

$$

132 
WGUS42 KGSP 281931
FLWGSP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

IN NORTH CAROLINA...
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...
  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA
  COUNTIES


.RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE THE RIVER TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD 
STAGE. NOTE....DUE TO A LOG JAM UPSTREAM OF THIS GAGE TIMING OF THE CREST MAY BE 
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IS FORECASTED.
 
REMEMBER...RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND FORECASTED RAINFALL. 
IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY
ACCORDINGLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...NIGHTIME MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO RECOGNIZE FLOODED AREAS.

THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR RIVERS CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB 
PAGE AT HTTP://NEWWEB.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=GSP

&&

NCC089-175-291931-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0012.111129T0118Z-111130T1800Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.111129T0118Z.111129T1200Z.111130T0600Z.NO/
231 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  1:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING STARTS. FLOODING AT THIS 
  LEVEL WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLOODING THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY TWENTY 
  SIXTH 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257
$$

920 
WGUS82 KGSP 290053
FLSGSP
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
753 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

  PIGEON RIVER IN NC AT CANTON AFFECTING HAYWOOD COUNTY.

.RUNOFF FROM THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVERS  
APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-300053-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0012.111129T0214Z-111201T0040Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.111129T0214Z.111129T1200Z.111130T1240Z.NO/
753 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING ON PARTS OF HIGHWAY 64 UP
  AND DOWN STREAM OF THE GAGE SITE WILL BE LIKELY.  A FEW BUILDINGS 
  BETWEEN THE RIVER AND HIGHWAY 64 WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. 

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257
 
$$

NCC087-291800-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0013.111129T0600Z-111129T1800Z/
/CTPN7.1.ER.111129T0600Z.111129T0600Z.111129T0600Z.NO/
753 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PIGEON RIVER IN NC AT CANTON.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE RIVER WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS AND START
  TO FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS IN CLYDE.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8286 3553 8284 3552 8284 3551 8285

$$

646 
WGUS82 KGSP 290630
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  PIGEON RIVER IN NC AT CANTON AFFECTING HAYWOOD COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS WORKED ITS WAY FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-300630-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111201T0040Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.111129T0450Z.111129T1200Z.111130T1240Z.NO/
130 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT 12:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL PARTS 
  OF THE GROVE BRIDGE AND PLEASANT GROVE ROADS WILL FLOOD. BUILDINGS 
  BETWEEN THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AND HIGHWAY 64 WILL BEGIN TO SEE WATER 
  APPROACH THEM.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257

$$

NCC087-290700-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-111129T1832Z/
/CTPN7.1.ER.111129T0009Z.111129T0130Z.111129T0223Z.NO/
130 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PIGEON RIVER IN NC AT CANTON.
* AT  1:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9:23 PM MONDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 1.2 FEET BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8286 3553 8284 3552 8284 3551 8285

$$

895 
WGUS82 KGSP 291524
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

 .RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER REMAINING 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  ALSO...THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR THE TRANSYVANIA AIRPORT
COUNTIES TO OVERFLOW THE BANKS IN FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

&&

NCC089-175-301524-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111201T0212Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.111129T0450Z.111130T0000Z.111130T1412Z.NO/
1024 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW LATE 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING STARTS. FLOODING AT THIS 
  LEVEL WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLOODING THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY TWENTY 
  SIXTH 2010.
&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257


$$

216 
WGUS82 KGSP 300048
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
748 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER REMAINING 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

&&

NCC089-175-010048-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111203T0249Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.111129T0450Z.111201T0000Z.111202T1449Z.NO/
748 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 6:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE FRIDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING STARTS. FLOODING AT THIS 
  LEVEL WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLOODING THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY TWENTY 
  SIXTH 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257
 

$$

JPT

663 
WGUS82 KGSP 301435
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

A LOG JAM MAY CREATE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE RIVER STAGE.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER  REMAINING 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-011435-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111202T0106Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.111129T0450Z.111130T1800Z.111201T1306Z.NO/
935 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING NEAR 18.8 FEET AND WILL REMAIN 
  NEAR THIS STAGE INTO THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE ON THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING ON PARTS OF HIGHWAY 64 UP
  AND DOWN STREAM OF THE GAGE SITE WILL BE LIKELY.  A FEW BUILDINGS 
  BETWEEN THE RIVER AND HIGHWAY 64 WILL ALSO BE FLOODED.  

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257

$$

171 
WGUS82 KGSP 301734
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1234 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

A LOG JAM CONTINUES TO AFFECT RIVER LEVELS...BUT THE RIVER IS 
BEGINNING TO FALL AFTER CRESTING.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE RIVER  REMAINING 
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-011734-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111202T0106Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.111129T0450Z.111130T1800Z.111201T1306Z.NO/
1234 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AT 18.7 FEET 6:30 AM 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE RIVER WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE TODAY 
  THEN FALL MORE RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY WHILE GOING BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE OF 16 FEET THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING STARTS. FLOODING AT THIS 
  LEVEL WILL BE SIMILAR TO FLOODING THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY TWENTY 
  SIXTH 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257

$$

381 
WGUS82 KGSP 011527
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS WORKED ITS WAY FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-011557-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111202T0925Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.111129T0450Z.111130T1030Z.111201T1122Z.NO/
1027 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT 9:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 6:22 AM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 14.7 FEET BY FRIDAY
  MORNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
723 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD APPEARS TO BE
MOVING INTO THE SW MTNS ON RADAR THIS EVENING. ALL 18Z MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE SRN AND SE ESCARPMENT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT WELL IN HAND AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS...AND BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON QPF FOR
THE EVENING HOURS...WERE NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...MDLS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND QPF. DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL HELP STRENGTHEN A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING ON
THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...PUMPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
WRN CWFA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST OVER
THE ERN CWFA. STILL EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
ALONG THE NE GA/UPSTATE/NC BORDER. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NC MTNS FROM THE FRENCH BROAD WEST AND
THE NE GA/UPSTATE COUNTIES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THE SMOKIES AND
BALSAMS. HOWEVER...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT GIVEN
THE WEAK MIXING AND WWA FLOW. LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY...KEEPING US IN THE
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO ERN TN AS THE COLD FRONT PIVOTS EASTWARD INTO THE WRN
CWFA. ALL THIS SHOULD COMBINE TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS PW
VALUES ARE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AND STRONG FORCING CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE WATCH
AREA IN PLACE THRU THE DAY. HPC PUTS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA THRU THE END OF THE DAY...CONCENTRATED
IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE GA/NC/SC BORDERS. SHOULD THIS
RAINFALL DEVELOP...THEN FLOODING WOULD BE LIKELY...EVEN ON SOME MAIN
STEM RIVERS. AN ISOLATED QLCS TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVE THE
VERY STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...BUT
EVEN THE GFS BRINGS CAPES TO AROUND 100 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HAVE KEPT TSRA MENTION TO ISOLATED FOR NOW. HIGHS 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL PUSH NORTHWARD...ACROSS MOST OF THE FA MONDAY
NIGHT...AS AN UPPER EJECTS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. A TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR AND A 50-60KT LLVL JET JUST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT SAID...THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A DAMAGING WIND
GUST OF A WEAK QLCS TORNADO ALONG THE BAND...BUT IT/S NOT MUCH
HIGHER THAN ZERO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. THE
STRONG LLVL WINDS SHOULD RIDE ABOVE MOST OF THE MTNS. A MTN WAVE IS
LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WINDS DOWN INTO THE GREAT VALLEY OF TN...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THIS WIND SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF THE FA. DEPENDING
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON MONDAY...THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE
SOME FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. IF AN MCS
DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT...SAY OVER SRN AND
CENTRAL GA...THIS WOULD DISRUPT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT...LIMITING THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING UNDER THE STACKED UPPER
LOW...A QUICK INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE BAND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS
IF LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE CATEGORICAL 0.25 INCH OR GREATER 3HRLY
QPF PROBS ON THE SREF ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE DURING
THIS TIME ALSO FAVOR THIS IDEA.

ON TUE THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FA...OR JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE A SHOT OF DPVA WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
MODEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THE 850-700 MB THICKNESS FALL WELL INTO THE
SNOW RANGE ACROSS THE FA AS A POOL OF -4 TO -6 DEG H8 TEMPS MOVES IN
UNDER THE LOW. HOWEVER...BELOW 850 MB THE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET. THIS
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 0900 UTC SREF. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE SNOW
IN ANY OF THE PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR KAVL AND NONE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
THEREFORE...THE OPERATIONAL 12 UTC NAM LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER ON THE COOL SIDE. ALSO...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GENERATE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THEIR RAW OUTPUT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
MORE SOPHISTICATED SREF PCPN OUTPUT DON/T SUPPORT THIS. THEREFORE
I/M CONFINING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC
MTNS. 1 TO 2 INCHES IS A GOOD BET AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT
ONLY A TRACE IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. THAT SAID...A LITTLE MORE
SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
OF NE GA..SC AND NC THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TMRW MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...ON THURSDAY...A POSITIVE TILTED TROF WILL SLOWLY
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LARGE APPALACHIAN STORM...EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CANADA BY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVER...BUT DRY WX. MIN AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO RANGE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
VALUES.

S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
A REDUCTION OF SKY COVER. CLEAR...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE U20S ACROSS THE MTNS AND AROUND 30 EAST. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A CLIPPER WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO CROSS THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT A FEW
-SHRASN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. ACCUMULATION SHOULD
REMAIN VERY LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE L50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 60 EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER AND
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS SFC WINDS HAVE
BACKED TO SE. EXPECT SE FLOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A STEADILY INCREASING PRES GRADIENT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN IN THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH A
TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...THEN IFR AROUND 12Z WITH THE
ONSET OF SOME STEADIER RAIN. WILL ADD A CB CLOUD GROUP WITH BRIEF
RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY IMPROVES. WILL NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE SW PART OF THE TERMINAL
AREA THROUGH 09Z...WITH FLOW CONTINUING TO BACK TO SE OR ESE. AS THE
RAIN/SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM DAYBREAK ONWARD CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR AND REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
END THUNDER CHANCES ARE INDICATED AT THE SC TAF SITES IN THE
AFTN/EVENING...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. LOW END SE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARRIVE.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE SW AND THEN W. SHOWERS DIMINISH
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE. A
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KAVL TUE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE WED
ONWARD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR SCZ001>006.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ007>014-019-282345-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
633 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT...THEN
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH A BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER STABLE...STRONG WIND SHEAR
WILL EXIST...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A DAMAGING STRAIGHT-
LINE WIND GUST OR A WEAK TORNADO.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE THE RAIN BRIEFLY MIX WITH
SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>006-282345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
633 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT...THEN
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG WIND FIELD
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE GROUND...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCATIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE LINE MAY SEE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO
KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER
THE LOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...WHILE
THE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-501>510-282345-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
633 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT...THEN
LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. A BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE RAIN FALLS QUICKLY ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE A FEW FLOODING PROBLEMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS MONDAY.

A STRONG WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST OF
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE GROUND...HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE LINE MAY SEE WINDS
STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREES.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER
THE LOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...WHILE
THE VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.