Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011

Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 28, 2011Henderson County, Transylvania County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Nov 28, 2011, 10:45 AM EST for Henderson County, Transylvania County, North Carolina. It was in force for 6 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 28, 2011, 10:45 AM EST (15:45 UTC)
Expired
Nov 28, 2011, 4:30 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Henderson County, NC, Transylvania County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 28, 12:45 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD2 Se Rosman, NCTHE EAST FORK RIVER ROAD WAS PARTIALLY FLOODED NEAR THE EAST FORK BAPTIST CHURCH.
Nov 28, 12:45 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 E Brevard, NCCASCADE LAKE ROAD WAS FLOODED BY THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR MERRILL LANE.
Nov 28, 1:47 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD4 Sw Brevard, NCHANNA FORD ROAD WAS FLOODED.
Nov 28, 2:30 PM ESTFLASH FLOOD5 E Brevard, NCAUTOMATED RIVER GAUGE ON THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR PENROSE REPORTED A STAGE OF 9.2 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
Nov 28, 3:30 PM ESTFLASH FLOODRosman, NCAUTOMATED RIVER GAUGE ON THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT ROSMAN REPORTED A STAGE OF 9 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 120 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 250 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2011-11-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 64 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2011-11-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 178 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
64 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
700 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

851 
WGUS52 KGSP 281545
FFWGSP
NCC089-175-282130-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0026.111128T1545Z-111128T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EST

* AT 1043 AM EST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT A 
LOG JAM ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER WAS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT 
BACKUP ALONG THE RIVER...NEAR THE TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY AIRPORT. THE 
LOG JAM IS ABOUT 800 FEET UPSTREAM OF THE FRENCH BROADS CONFLUENCE 
WITH THE LITTLE RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT A QUARTER MILE UPSTREAM OF 
CRAB TREE ROAD. THE RIVER IS FLOODING A TREE FARM AND CORN FIELDS IN 
THIS AREA.

* THE LOG JAM COULD GIVE WAY AT ANY TIME AS THE RIVER CONTINUES TO 
RISE AS A RESULT HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN TODAY. IF THIS 
HAPPENS...RAPID RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER FROM PENROSE TO 
BLANTYRE AND INTO WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY. IT/S NOT KNOWN EXACTLY 
HOW LARGE AN AREA AROUND THE RIVER WILL BE AFFECTED IF THE LOG JAM 
BREAKS. ROADS NEAR THE FRENCH BROAD...HOWEVER...COULD CERTAINLY BE 
FLOODED IF THIS HAPPENS. 

IN ADDITION TO THE LOG JAM ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD...WIDESPREAD HEAVY 
RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ALONG STREAMS...CREEKS AND URBAN 
AREAS TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THIS 
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT OTHER ROADS IN THE WARNED COUNTIES...WHERE SOME 
MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. REMEMBER TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8228 3528 8235 3521 8235 3504 8302
      3529 8292 3532 8283 3538 8279 3544 8270
      3543 8257 3545 8255 3542 8254 3544 8253
      3545 8247 3547 8241 3546 8237 3548 8237
      3549 8231

$$

MCAVOY
2 follow-up statements
107 
WGUS72 KGSP 281811
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

NCC089-175-282130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-111128T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-
111 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRANSYLVANIA AND
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EST...

AT 1245 PM...AN OFFICIAL FROM THE TRANSYLVANIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
AGENCY REPORTED THAT CASCADE LAKE ROAD WAS FLOODED BY THE LITTLE 
RIVER NEAR MERRILL LANE...WHICH IS NORTH OF CASCADE LAKE. THE 
FLOODING IS LIKELY A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND BACK FLOW FROM A 
LOG JAM ON THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER. THE LOG JAM IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 
FEET UPSTREAM OF THE FRENCH BROADS CONFLUENCE WITH THE LITTLE 
RIVER...NEAR THE TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY AIRPORT. THE LOG JAM IS ALSO 
FLOODING A TREE FARM AND CORN FIELDS IN THIS AREA.

AT 1245 PM...THE TRANSYLVANIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY REPORTED 
THAT EAST FORK RIVER ROAD NEAR ROSMAN WAS PARTIALLY FLOOD NEAR THE 
EAST FORK BAPTIST CHURCH. AT 1 PM EST...AN AUTOMATED RIVER GAUGE 
ON THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT ROSMAN REPORTED A STAGE OF 7.4 FEET. 
FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL 
LIKELY CAUSE THE RIVER TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8228 3528 8235 3521 8235 3504 8302
      3529 8292 3532 8283 3538 8279 3544 8270
      3543 8257 3545 8255 3542 8254 3544 8253
      3545 8247 3547 8241 3546 8237 3548 8237
      3549 8231

$$

NED
986 
WGUS72 KGSP 281951
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

NCC089-175-282130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-111128T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-
251 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRANSYLVANIA AND
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EST...

AT 250 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA 
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS TRANSYLVANIA AND HENDERSON 
COUNTIES. BY 4 PM...AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THE ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STREAM AND RIVER 
LEVELS...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

AT 230 PM...AN AUTOMATED RIVER GAUGE ON THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR 
PENROSE REPORTED A STAGE OF 9.2 FEET...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD 
STAGE. AT 9 FEET...THE LITTLE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FLOOD CASCADE 
LAKE ROAD AT MERRILL LANE WITH A FOOT OF WATER. THE FLOODING IS 
LIKELY A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND BACK WATER FROM A LOG JAM ON 
THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER. THE LOG JAM IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 FEET 
UPSTREAM OF THE FRENCH BROADS CONFLUENCE WITH THE LITTLE 
RIVER...NEAR THE TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY AIRPORT. THE LOG JAM IS ALSO 
FLOODING A TREE FARM AND CORN FIELDS IN THIS AREA.

AT 245 PM EST...AN AUTOMATED RIVER GAUGE ON THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER 
AT ROSMAN REPORTED A STAGE OF 8.8 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN 
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A HALF INCH TO INCH OF ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE 
RIVER TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. EARLIER REPORTS INDICATE THAT HANNA 
FORD AND EAST FORK RIVER ROADS WERE IMPACTED BY FLOOD WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8228 3528 8235 3521 8235 3504 8302
      3529 8292 3532 8283 3538 8279 3544 8270
      3543 8257 3545 8255 3542 8254 3544 8253
      3545 8247 3547 8241 3546 8237 3548 8237
      3549 8231

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 28, 9:33 AM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 28, 9:33 AM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 930 AM EST... SURFACE LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF NC.
THIS PLACES THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE CONFLUENT PREFRONTAL
REGION UNDER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION ALSO
RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AXIS OF HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM
EAST TN SOUTHWARD THRU GA TO NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE AXIS IS ROUGHLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW TRAVELS FROM EAST TN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/RUC 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS DISPLAY ONLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES DURING THE REST OF TODAY... SO ALL MODELS CONTINUE
STRONG SOUTHEAST... UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EMPHASIS IS STILL
ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY VICINITY BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FROM N GA ALONG NC/SC
BORDER. THE 06Z NAM FIRE WEATHER HIGH RESOLUTION RUN PLACES HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOC COLD FRONT AND SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHO LATEST QPF FCST
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER...AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE N OVER THE
REGION...QPF OVER THE W MTNS REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED FOR NOW. AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TODAY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE LAKE WIND ADVSRY OVER THE MTNS
ALSO LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT BE EXPANDED ATTM. WIND SHEAR INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT CAPE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW NAM CAPE IS HIGHER THAN THE CAPPED
GFS SO USED A BLEND AND KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS THIS
AFTN-EVE. THE NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES AS WELL. STRONG S
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVG TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT HIGHER MTN PEAKS AND
RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER TN
TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE GFS
HAS THE LOW REACHING THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE THE
NAM LAGS BEHIND IN EASTERN KY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THIS FEATURE IS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...AS SUPPORTED BY BLENDED MODEL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS...AND
A TOP DOWN APPROACH USING BLENDED MODEL WET BULBS. AN EXAMINATION
OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT IF SURFACE WET BULBS WERE JUST A
BIT COOLER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THEY WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR
AREA...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER.

SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
JUST AS POPS AND QPF DECREASE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...
LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS TO AT MOST TWO INCHES ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE
TOPS. A WARM NOSE ALOFT IS NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SLEET BECOMES POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. EARLY
WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE TN BORDER...BUT MOISTURE
RAPIDLY DECREASES...AND THE EVENT ENDS QUIETLY AS DAYTIME WARMING
ALLOWS A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW WINTERTIME NORMALS ON TUESDAY UNDER
THE UPPER LOW...INCREASING TO JUST ABOVE MID WINTER VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE MID WINTER VALUES
BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING 12Z THU AS S/W RIDGE BEGINS WORKING INTO THE REGION.
THESE GENERAL SYNOPTICS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FCST...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXT PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A
LARGE THETA/E TROF TO ENCOMPASS THE SE REGION THU TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND VERY GOOD INSOLATION MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS PRODUCING AROUND NORMAL MAXES BY FRI. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
LOOSELY AGREED UPON BY THE OP MODELS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH FRI...SO DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOME LOW END
-RASNSH ACROSS THE NRN MTN SPINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. A FAIRLY
STRONG...1032 MB...POLAR HIGH WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY BEHIND THE S/W PASSAGE SAT AND GENERATE SOME MEASURE OF A
LOWER AIR MASS MIX WHILE THE SFC FLOW VEERS E/LY TO S/LY THROUGH
SUN. MODERATE MLVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE ATMOS DRY THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SCT/BKN CI/ACU MOVES IN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
SYSTEM WEST OF THE CWFA. SO...THINK CLOUD COVER AND AIR MASS MIX
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A CAT OR SO BELOW NORMAL EVEN WITH
DEEP SW/LY FLOW SETTING UP SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CIG AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE W TODAY. EXPECT SCT SHWRS WITH VFR OCNL MVFR CIG...LOWERING TO
IFR LATE THIS AFTN IN MDT RAIN. CHC TSTMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT THIS
AFTN-EVE. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT CIG/VSBY WILL STAY IFR OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT BUT CONDITIONS LOWERING EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA TUE AND SHOWERS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THRU
THE DAY. A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS PSBL AT KAVL TUE WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WED ON.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-018.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-
     062>065.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>006.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LGL
NEAR TERM...LGL/RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...LGL/RB
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 28, 6:25 AM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ007>014-019-291130-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-018-SCZ001>006-291130-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-291130-
RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-507-509-291130-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 27, 7:46 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningGSPHenderson, Transylvania4 days
Nov 27, 10:23 PM ESTLake Wind AdvisoryGSPAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood and 11 more24 hr
Nov 28, 10:55 AM ESTFlood WatchGSPAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood and 11 more16 hr
Nov 28, 12:28 PM ESTFlash Flood WarningGSPJackson, Macon6 hr
Nov 28, 4:30 PM ESTFlash Flood WarningGSPHenderson, Transylvania6 hr
Nov 28, 4:43 PM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPHaywood16 hr
Nov 28, 5:22 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementGSPPolk38 min
Nov 28, 5:32 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningGSPHaywood19 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2011Every flash flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.