Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

846 
WWUS53 KGRR 111537
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1137 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC037-065-075-111630-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-110711T1630Z/
CLINTON MI-INGHAM MI-JACKSON MI-
1137 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON...
INGHAM AND CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1133 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUBBARDSTON TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MASON TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF ALBION...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JACKSON...            LANSING...            ST. JOHNS...
  SPRINGPORT...         GRASS LAKE...         CONCORD...
  BROOKLYN...           WEBBERVILLE...        WILLIAMSTON...
  STOCKBRIDGE...        LESLIE...             MASON...
  ELSIE...              DEWITT...             CLARK LAKE...
  WATERLOO TWP...       LIBERTY TWP...        MICHIGAN CENTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
KENT COUNTY. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS AT 1 800 647 3836.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4207 8414 4207 8471 4242 8472 4242 8460
      4277 8460 4277 8484 4312 8484 4312 8436
      4278 8436 4278 8416 4276 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 258DEG 57KT 4304 8466 4262 8448
          4216 8473
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

93

271 
WWUS53 KGRR 111558
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC037-111608-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-110711T1630Z/
CLINTON MI-
1158 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLINTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4207 8414 4207 8471 4233 8456 4241 8449
      4259 8439 4274 8432 4278 8416 4276 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 258DEG 57KT 4311 8419 4269 8402
          4223 8427

$$

MIC065-075-111630-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-110711T1630Z/
INGHAM MI-JACKSON MI-
1158 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON AND
EASTERN INGHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF ELSIE TO FOWLERVILLE TO JACKSON...
MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JACKSON...            GRASS LAKE...         CONCORD...
  BROOKLYN...           WEBBERVILLE...        WILLIAMSTON...
  STOCKBRIDGE...        LESLIE...             CLARK LAKE...
  WATERLOO TWP...       LIBERTY TWP...        MICHIGAN CENTER...
  VANDERCOOK LAKE...    HORTON...             SANDSTONE...
  NAPOLEON...           LEONI...              MUNITH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
KENT COUNTY. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS AT 1 800 647 3836.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4207 8414 4207 8471 4233 8456 4241 8449
      4259 8439 4274 8432 4278 8416 4276 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 258DEG 57KT 4311 8419 4269 8402
          4223 8427
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

93

280 
WWUS53 KGRR 111610
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC065-075-111620-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-110711T1630Z/
INGHAM MI-JACKSON MI-
1210 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON AND EASTERN INGHAM
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4207 8414 4207 8471 4233 8456 4241 8449
      4259 8439 4274 8432 4278 8416 4276 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 258DEG 57KT 4315 8393 4273 8377
          4227 8402

$$

93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO EVALUATE CONVECTIVE AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WITH SB CAPES REACHING AROUND
2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE REACHING AROUND 35-40 KTS.

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OFF TO OUR WNW ACROSS WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOST LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS NOTION
IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z 4KM WRF NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE. THE OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IN TURN LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS TO CONVECTIVE/SVR WX
POTENTIAL INCLUDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LLJ. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE POPS/QPF ARE STILL QUITE
LOW AND IT IS NOTED THAT THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IL/IN/OH.

SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT THE BETTER
CHC FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THAT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE RISING HEIGHTS AND
CORRESPONDINGLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S...WARMING TO AROUND 90 INTO THE
WEEKEND.

AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT. IN FACT...YOU COULD MAKE THE
CASE TO GO DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE RIDGE. THE GFS IS LESS BULLISH ON THIS WAVE
AND IN TURN THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD IT WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS. SO...A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.
WARMER AND DRIER IS MY INTUITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID
MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GOOD PUSH OF 850MB DEW POINTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED. AT
THIS POINT SEE NO HARM IN KEEPING THE POPS...BUT CAN SEE US TRENDING
THEM OUT WITH TIME. THE ACTUAL GRIDDED POPS ARE 25 PERCENT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(730 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
ROUGH MORNING EXPECTED AT MKG AND GRR. COULD SEE DAMAGING TO
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS AT BOTH SITES...PARTICULARLY AT MKG...WITH
IMPRESSIVE AND MATURE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE LAKE. DECIDED TO GO
ABOUT AS AGGRESSIVE AS I FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT THE MKG TAF. THIS
LINE OF STORMS MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE EASTERN TAFS.
NEVERTHELESS SOME PERIODS OF IFR VISBYS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAFS BUT TOUGH
TO NAIL DOWN WHERE THOSE MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
FAIRLY MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BUT STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVES MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY GIVEN THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF
REMAINS QUITE LOW.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    LAURENS
SHORT TERM:  LAURENS
LONG TERM:   DUKE
AVIATION:    HOVING
MARINE:      LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:   LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-120930-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 800 AM AND 1000 PM. SEVERE STORMS WERE
CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS OF 1030 AM.

THE MORNING STORMS MAY ACT TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO ST. JOHNS LINE. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH TODAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY MAY PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
CLOUDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE ALONG
INTERSTATE 94 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LMZ844>849-120930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ON LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY. TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN EXIST...THE FIRST BEING
THIS MORNING AS A LINE ROLLS EAST OUT OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL NOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
MUSKEGON. DAMAGING WINDS...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

A PHENOMENA KNOWN AS A SEICHE AS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS COULD CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS OF LAKE
LEVELS.  THIS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE SWIMMING IN THE LAKE ALL
DAY TODAY AS THE RISING WATERS PERIODICALLY MOVE IN AND OUT.  THIS
THREAT COULD OVERCOME EVEN THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DUKE JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1106 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 W HOLLAND             42.78N 86.20W
07/11/2011  E65 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 0.41 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1109 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CUTLERVILLE         42.85N 85.66W
07/11/2011                   KENT               MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1117 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW HOLLAND           42.79N 86.12W
07/11/2011  E70 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 4 TO 5 TREES DOWN, 16-18 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE HOLLAND           42.81N 86.09W
07/11/2011  E80 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   STORM CHASER

            ALSO 8 POWER POLES DOWN. ONE SNAPPED IN HALF. DOWNTOWN
            HOLLAND WITHOUT POWER.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1122 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE COLOMA            42.19N 86.29W
07/11/2011                   BERRIEN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 INCH LIMBS DOWN. MOST OF THE STREETS IN PAW PAW ARE
            FLOODED.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW DUTTON             42.87N 85.62W
07/11/2011                   KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PINE TREES ON POWER LINES, POWER OUT TO THE AREA.

&&

LHART