Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

432 
WWUS53 KGRR 111516
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1116 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC045-067-117-111615-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-110711T1615Z/
EATON MI-IONIA MI-MONTCALM MI-
1116 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTCALM...
IONIA AND EATON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1110 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF BELDING TO 9 MILES NORTH
OF NASHVILLE TO BELLEVUE...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...         IONIA...              CHARLOTTE...
  STANTON...            SARANAC...            LAKE ODESSA...
  BELDING...            PORTLAND...           EATON RAPIDS...
  GRAND LEDGE...        BELLEVUE...           FERRIS TWP...
  LANGSTON...           VICKERYVILLE...       BUTTERNUT...
  FENWICK...            TURK LAKE...          SIDNEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS
HOLLAND AND KENTWOOD. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS AT 1 800 647 3836.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4277 8507 4277 8531 4329 8531 4330 8556
      4342 8485 4277 8484 4277 8460 4243 8460
      4242 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1515Z 257DEG 66KT 4310 8522 4276 8492
          4245 8494
WIND...HAIL 75MPH <1.00IN

$$

93

295 
WWUS53 KGRR 111523
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC117-111533-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-110711T1615Z/
MONTCALM MI-
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONTCALM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4242 8507 4277 8507 4277 8531 4311 8529
      4311 8486 4277 8484 4277 8460 4243 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 257DEG 66KT 4312 8503 4278 8473
          4247 8476

$$

MIC045-067-111615-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-110711T1615Z/
EATON MI-IONIA MI-
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR IONIA AND
EATON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1119 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF BELDING TO GRAND LEDGE TO
8 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  IONIA...              CHARLOTTE...          SARANAC...
  LAKE ODESSA...        BELDING...            PORTLAND...
  EATON RAPIDS...       GRAND LEDGE...        BELLEVUE...
  BERLIN CENTER...      MUIR...               ORLEANS...
  SMYRNA...             LYONS...              PALO...
  CLARKSVILLE...        KALAMO...             BROOKFIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND 
DAMAGE ACROSS OTTAWA AND KENT COUNTIES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY 
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND 
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS AT 1 800 647 3836.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4242 8507 4277 8507 4277 8531 4311 8529
      4311 8486 4277 8484 4277 8460 4243 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 257DEG 66KT 4312 8503 4278 8473
          4247 8476
WIND...HAIL 75MPH <1.00IN

$$

93

562 
WWUS53 KGRR 111542
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1142 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC045-067-111552-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-110711T1615Z/
EATON MI-IONIA MI-
1142 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR IONIA AND EATON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4242 8507 4277 8507 4277 8531 4311 8529
      4311 8486 4277 8484 4277 8460 4243 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 257DEG 66KT 4320 8456 4286 8427
          4255 8430

$$

93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO EVALUATE CONVECTIVE AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WITH SB CAPES REACHING AROUND
2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE REACHING AROUND 35-40 KTS.

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OFF TO OUR WNW ACROSS WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOST LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS NOTION
IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z 4KM WRF NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE. THE OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IN TURN LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS TO CONVECTIVE/SVR WX
POTENTIAL INCLUDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LLJ. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE POPS/QPF ARE STILL QUITE
LOW AND IT IS NOTED THAT THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IL/IN/OH.

SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT THE BETTER
CHC FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THAT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE RISING HEIGHTS AND
CORRESPONDINGLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S...WARMING TO AROUND 90 INTO THE
WEEKEND.

AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT. IN FACT...YOU COULD MAKE THE
CASE TO GO DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE RIDGE. THE GFS IS LESS BULLISH ON THIS WAVE
AND IN TURN THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD IT WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS. SO...A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.
WARMER AND DRIER IS MY INTUITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID
MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GOOD PUSH OF 850MB DEW POINTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED. AT
THIS POINT SEE NO HARM IN KEEPING THE POPS...BUT CAN SEE US TRENDING
THEM OUT WITH TIME. THE ACTUAL GRIDDED POPS ARE 25 PERCENT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(730 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
ROUGH MORNING EXPECTED AT MKG AND GRR. COULD SEE DAMAGING TO
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS AT BOTH SITES...PARTICULARLY AT MKG...WITH
IMPRESSIVE AND MATURE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE LAKE. DECIDED TO GO
ABOUT AS AGGRESSIVE AS I FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT THE MKG TAF. THIS
LINE OF STORMS MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE EASTERN TAFS.
NEVERTHELESS SOME PERIODS OF IFR VISBYS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAFS BUT TOUGH
TO NAIL DOWN WHERE THOSE MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
FAIRLY MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BUT STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVES MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY GIVEN THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF
REMAINS QUITE LOW.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    LAURENS
SHORT TERM:  LAURENS
LONG TERM:   DUKE
AVIATION:    HOVING
MARINE:      LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:   LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-120930-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 800 AM AND 1000 PM. SEVERE STORMS WERE
CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS OF 1030 AM.

THE MORNING STORMS MAY ACT TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO ST. JOHNS LINE. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH TODAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY MAY PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
CLOUDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE ALONG
INTERSTATE 94 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LMZ844>849-120930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1049 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ON LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY. TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN EXIST...THE FIRST BEING
THIS MORNING AS A LINE ROLLS EAST OUT OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL NOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
MUSKEGON. DAMAGING WINDS...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

A PHENOMENA KNOWN AS A SEICHE AS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS COULD CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS OF LAKE
LEVELS.  THIS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE SWIMMING IN THE LAKE ALL
DAY TODAY AS THE RISING WATERS PERIODICALLY MOVE IN AND OUT.  THIS
THREAT COULD OVERCOME EVEN THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DUKE JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1032 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BALDWIN                 43.90N 85.85W
07/11/2011                   LAKE               MI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON 48TH ST NEAR OSCEOLA COUNTY LINE

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1033 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWAYGO                 43.42N 85.81W
07/11/2011                   NEWAYGO            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN GRANT,
            CROTON, AND EAST OF WHITE CLOUD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1035 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLAND                 42.78N 86.11W
07/11/2011                   OTTAWA             MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.67W
07/11/2011                   KENT               MI   911 CALL CENTER

            ROADWAY FLOODING AT PLAINFIELD AND JUST SOUTH OF 4 MILE
            ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1044 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KENT CITY               43.22N 85.75W
07/11/2011                   KENT               MI   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES FELL ON TRAILER AT 14000 BLOCK OF SPARTA AVE. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

LHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1057 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HASTINGS                42.65N 85.29W
07/11/2011                   BARRY              MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREE DOWN ON CENTERLAKE ROAD, EST 2 FEET IN DIAMETER.

&&

LHART