Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

808 
WWUS53 KGRR 111311
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
911 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC005-015-111345-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110711T1345Z/
BARRY MI-ALLEGAN MI-
911 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALLEGAN AND
BARRY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

AT 908 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED...
PRODUCING  LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALLEGAN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HASTINGS...           SAUGATUCK...          ALLEGAN...
  MIDDLEVILLE...        NASHVILLE...          FENNVILLE...
  PLAINWELL...          WAYLAND...            MORGAN...
  ASSYRIA...            BANFIELD...           HICKORY CORNERS...
  IRVING...             LACEY...              DOWLING...
  DELTON...             FREEPORT...           ORANGEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GRAND RAPIDS AT 1 800 647 3836.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4276 8621 4277 8509 4242 8507 4242 8581
      4256 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 1310Z 294DEG 37KT 4270 8512 4258 8591
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

93

235 
WWUS53 KGRR 111332
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIC005-015-111343-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110711T1345Z/
BARRY MI-ALLEGAN MI-
932 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND BARRY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4276 8621 4277 8509 4242 8507 4242 8581
      4256 8624
TIME...MOT...LOC 1333Z 294DEG 37KT 4260 8483 4248 8562

$$

93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
730 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK BRINGING FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO EVALUATE CONVECTIVE AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WITH SB CAPES REACHING AROUND
2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE REACHING AROUND 35-40 KTS.

SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OFF TO OUR WNW ACROSS WI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOST LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS NOTION
IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z 4KM WRF NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE. THE OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IN TURN LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS TO CONVECTIVE/SVR WX
POTENTIAL INCLUDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND AN UNFAVORABLE
LLJ. A CONSENSUS OF 00Z GFS/NAM GUIDANCE POPS/QPF ARE STILL QUITE
LOW AND IT IS NOTED THAT THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE OFF
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IL/IN/OH.

SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT THE BETTER
CHC FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THAT HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE RISING HEIGHTS AND
CORRESPONDINGLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S...WARMING TO AROUND 90 INTO THE
WEEKEND.

AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT. IN FACT...YOU COULD MAKE THE
CASE TO GO DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM.

MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE RIDGE. THE GFS IS LESS BULLISH ON THIS WAVE
AND IN TURN THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD IT WITH
SUCCESSIVE RUNS. SO...A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.
WARMER AND DRIER IS MY INTUITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID
MAINTAINED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GOOD PUSH OF 850MB DEW POINTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED. AT
THIS POINT SEE NO HARM IN KEEPING THE POPS...BUT CAN SEE US TRENDING
THEM OUT WITH TIME. THE ACTUAL GRIDDED POPS ARE 25 PERCENT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(730 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
ROUGH MORNING EXPECTED AT MKG AND GRR. COULD SEE DAMAGING TO
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS AT BOTH SITES...PARTICULARLY AT MKG...WITH
IMPRESSIVE AND MATURE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE LAKE. DECIDED TO GO
ABOUT AS AGGRESSIVE AS I FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT THE MKG TAF. THIS
LINE OF STORMS MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE EASTERN TAFS.
NEVERTHELESS SOME PERIODS OF IFR VISBYS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TAFS BUT TOUGH
TO NAIL DOWN WHERE THOSE MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
FAIRLY MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY BUT STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY WHEN THE WAVES MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(430 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011)
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY GIVEN THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF
REMAINS QUITE LOW.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    LAURENS
SHORT TERM:  LAURENS
LONG TERM:   DUKE
AVIATION:    HOVING
MARINE:      LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:   LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
521 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-120930-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
521 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 800 AM AND 1000 PM. THE FIRST
THREAT WILL COME FROM A LINE OF STORMS MOVING EAST OUT OF
WISCONSIN AT DAYBREAK. THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
800 AM WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE MORNING STORMS MAY ACT TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO ST. JOHNS LINE. STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH IN DIAMETER...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH
TODAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY MAY PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
CLOUDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE ALONG
INTERSTATE 94 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LMZ844>849-120930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
521 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT ON LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY. TWO TIME FRAMES OF CONCERN EXIST...THE FIRST BEING
THIS MORNING AS A LINE ROLLS EAST OUT OF WISCONSIN. STORMS
POTENTIALLY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 800 AM AND
NOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON. DAMAGING WINDS...CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 800 AM THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 WSW WHITEHALL         43.37N 86.42W
07/11/2011  M66 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED WIND GUST AT THE WHITE RIVER LIGHTHOUSE. REPORT
            COURTESY OF WOODTV.

&&

HOVING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

MIZ072-111245-
KALAMAZOO-
748 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 743 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MATTAWAN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS KALAMAZOO COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM
EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

LAT...LON 4206 8576 4242 8576 4242 8530 4231 8529
      4207 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1147Z 280DEG 33KT 4226 8576

DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE MUSKEGON          43.17N 86.22W
07/11/2011  M53 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST AT MUSKEGON ASOS.

&&

HOVING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
819 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N MUSKEGON            43.27N 86.25W
07/11/2011                   MUSKEGON           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            12 INCH TREE BRANCH DOWN ON WHITEHALL ROAD.

0806 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NNE DALTON              43.32N 86.26W
07/11/2011                   MUSKEGON           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS WHITEHALL ROAD.

0806 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE MUSKEGON          43.24N 86.20W
07/11/2011                   MUSKEGON           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 TO 8 INCH TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT APPLE AVENUE AND GORDON
            ST.

0810 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE MUSKEGON          43.24N 86.21W
07/11/2011                   MUSKEGON           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AT APPLE AVE AND US 31

&&

KHOOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
845 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW GRAND RAPIDS       42.99N 85.71W
07/11/2011  E60 MPH          KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W FULTON              42.12N 85.37W
07/11/2011  M0.69 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN RATE OF 5.19 INCHES PER
            HOUR.

&&

KHOOG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
847 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     HAIL             2 W FULTON              42.12N 85.40W
07/11/2011  M0.50 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KHOOG