Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
510 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
243 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHEN TO END THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW MUCH TO
COOL OF TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW IN THE PACIFIC THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN FROM NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FIRST PART OF
MAJOR UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH. THE SECOND...SOUTHERN PART OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS DIGGING/DEEPENING/SLIGHTLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. FRONT THAT WAS A PART OF THUNDERSTORM EVENT FROM LAST
NIGHT IS NEAR THE EASTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT.

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE JET SEGMENT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INCOMING TROUGH
TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE THE WORST WITH THE GFS
DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS HAVING A
LITTLE DIFFICULTY WITH OUR COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH. IN GENERAL THEY
WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE IN THEIR INITIALIZATION. OVERALL THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF. ON THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE NAM/ECMWF. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THE MODELS WERE CLOSE
WITH THE CANADIAN DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER.

BASED ON HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS...STRONG EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE...
AND MODEL BIAS OF A COMPLICATED TROUGH OF THIS NATURE...WILL TEND
TO BELIEVE A SLOWER/DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT...PROVIDING FURTHER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY
SHEARED...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

024

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN REMAINS NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...DURING THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FOCUS
ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MODELS WANT TO DRY THINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT LEARY OF THAT CONSIDERING THE JET IN THE AREA. SREF POPS REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST IN THE SOUTH. SO DID
TREND DOWN POPS A LITTLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TRIED TO MAKE MAXES AS COOL AS
POSSIBLE BUT STILL MAY BE WARM.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BEING SLOWER WITH SYSTEM PLUS ACTUALLY
GIVING THE TROUGH MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND IT. SREF POPS REMAIN PRETTY
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SO TRENDED POPS IN THAT WAY.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SLOWER TREND WITH SYSTEM CONTINUES THIS PERIOD
WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OR CUTOFF DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. CANADIAN IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS. AGAIN SREF POPS ARE
RATHER HIGH THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. SO AGAIN INCREASED POPS
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST HALF. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SLOWLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AROUND ON
SUNDAY TRENDED THE MAXES DOWN. BUT AGAIN AM AFRAID THAT AM TOO WARM.

MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SURFACE WILL
MAKE FOR DRY DAY AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RATHER BENIGN PERIOD. MAY BE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DRY
PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
RIDGING BY THE END WILL MAKE FOR A DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

THANKS TO ALL WHO COLLABORATED.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
510 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE
AREA...WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG IT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TRANSITION TO MAINLY SHRA. TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS CIG/VIS...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN HEAVIER TSRA EARLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIG/VIS IN RAINSHOWERS. EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER MIDDAY TOMORROW.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081445-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011 /1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO OCCUR. STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM NEAR MCCOOK NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE KANSAS.
STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ON SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

KSZ004-072115-
NORTON-
402 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALVERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 9963 3977 9984 4001 9971 4001 9963
      4000 9962 3971 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 206DEG 39KT 3982 9968

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

KSZ004-072245-
NORTON-
525 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALVERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 9973 3981 9995 4001 9984 4001 9980
      4001 9963 4000 9962 3991 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 205DEG 37KT 3985 9979

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

KSZ004-072330-
NORTON-
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9996 3978 10018 3989 10018 4001 10014
      4001 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 206DEG 35KT 3988 9996

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT FRI OCT 7 2011

KSZ004-080000-
NORTON-
641 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF BEAVER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 9989 3988 10013 3989 10018 4001 10014
      4001 9976 4000 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 206DEG 35KT 4006 9985

JRM