Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
442 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED
A POTENT MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN PRODUCING
IMPACTS FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. -FOLTZ

TODAY-TONIGHT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS HAS SET UP A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CU FIELD IS IN AREA OF
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AT THE
SAME TIME. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHERE TO PUT THE QPF AND
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED LIFT. LOWEST POPS WILL BE NEAR THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AND INCREASE FURTHER WEST.

WIND FORECAST/HIGHLIGHT IS WORKING OUT. IT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REALLY DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT.
THAT COMBINED WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY MIN
FORECAST AND BIG GRADIENT FROM WARMEST EAST TO COOLEST WEST. TRIED
MY BEST TO CAPTURE THAT GRADIENT. -BULLER

FRIDAY-NEXT THURSDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PARENT TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. NAM/EC SOLUTION REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS STILL REMAINING THE FAST OUTLIER. GIVEN STRENGTH
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH FEEL THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS THE
WAY TO GO.

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM IN THE EAST DURING THE MORNING BUT
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE AUGUST
4TH. PER NAM/EC 305-310K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...STRONG UPGLIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO IN THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULT WILL BE A DEEPLY SATURATED
COLUMN WITH STRONG DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. SURFACE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WILL ACT AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN TRAINING OF CELLS. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT
LIKELY LOOKING AT THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE FOR MOST
EVERYONE. SOME LOCATIONS COULD END UP WITH IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN ANTICIPATED PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BY 5-7 DEGREES GENERALLY. MAY STILL BE
TOO WARM ON MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY IF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
VERIFIES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST BUT STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. -FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
442 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 05-07Z...AT WHICH TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND BECOME GUSTY
TOMORROW LATE MORNING UP TO 20KTS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCTS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE TERMINALS...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1047 AM MDT THU OCT 6 2011 /1147 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM INDIANOLA TO HOXIE TO GOVE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DRY FUELS WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 MPH AND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
DECREASED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA THROUGH
GOODLAND KANSAS AND CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS LIFTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REPORT
NY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE REPORTED TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BULLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
655 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

KSZ027-041-070115-
GREELEY-WALLACE-
655 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 650 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HORACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 55
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 10205 3853 10205 3897 10181 3887 10149
      3871 10156 3840 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 204DEG 60KT 3862 10186

050

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             SHARON SPRINGS          38.89N 101.75W
10/06/2011  E1.25 INCH       WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BSCHOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 PM MDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             4 W OAKLEY              39.13N 100.93W
10/06/2011  E0.88 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FSTASSER