Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Fort Worth, TX

030 
WWUS54 KFWD 200015
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

TXC251-200045-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110420T0045Z/
JOHNSON TX-
715 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR JOHNSON COUNTY...

AT 714 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR CLEBURNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  THIS IS A DANGEROUS 
STORM...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ALVARADO...VENUS...RIO VISTA AND GRANDVIEW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 9761 3251 9733 3255 9709 3227 9709
      3219 9746 3217 9750 3214 9751 3215 9755
      3218 9757 3219 9759 3220 9758 3221 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 320DEG 9KT 3233 9739

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS. STORMS MOVING OUT OF METROPLEX...AND THAT SHOULD BE THE
END OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AND VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KACT...GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING TSRA MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH
FROM IT/S CURRENT LOCATION IN THE METROPLEX. HRRR IS ONLY MODEL
THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON COLD FRONT LOCATION. IT KEEPS FLOW
SOUTH AT KACT SO HAVE REMOVED THE NORTH WINDS. STRATUS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BUILD TOWARDS KACT THIS EVENING...AMENDMENTS WILL BE
REQUIRED. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO FORM ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
AND INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #156.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/
...SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO BRECKENRIDGE AND THE DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE
AT THE POINT WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MEET...WHICH SHOULD
BE NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP IS WEAKENING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD INDICATE INITIATION IS CLOSE TO OCCURRING IN THE FWD CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED TO OUR NORTH...WHERE THE BEST
LIFT IS OCCURRING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND ARE
SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
INFLOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT. A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF A SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO CANTON LINE THROUGH 10 PM. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AND THEN TRANSITION EAST
AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH BOX MAY BE NEEDED. THIS
BOX WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WATCH...AS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH
TEXAS BEHIND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT /COLD FRONT/. THIS WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY HELP THE ONGOING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE...WHICH IS
GOOD NEWS. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL VERY LOW NONETHELESS AND
WE'LL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH AMPLE CAPE...SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BOUNDARY WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE CAP IN
PLACE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT 30 POPS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DRY LINE WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 20/30 POPS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
GUIDANCE MEMBERS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED...AND
THESE POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE. HOPEFULLY THESE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK COME TO FRUITION AS DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  76  66  87  71 /  30  20  30  10  10
WACO, TX              72  84  68  88  73 /  30  20  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  74  62  82  68 /  40  20  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            59  72  63  86  71 /  10  20  30  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          61  72  63  84  70 /  30  20  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            65  77  66  87  71 /  40  20  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           67  77  65  87  69 /  40  20  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  81  67  88  70 /  40  20  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  86  67  89  71 /  30  20  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  75  61  85  68 /   5  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
323 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE...DALLAS-FORT WORTH...CORSICANA...CANTON LINE THROUGH
MID TO LATE EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TO WACO. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST PROMINENT THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH ANY DISCRETE...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET...STORM MODE WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES THAT WILL CONTINUE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT.

OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS IN
THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR EACH
DAY...BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON FEATURES...TIMING AND
INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             BURLESON                32.53N  97.32W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BURLESON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             POWDERLY                33.80N  95.52W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN POWDERLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             GODLEY                  32.45N  97.53W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY THE MID NORTH FD IN
            GODLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             2 N HINCKLEY            33.76N  95.55W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             JOSHUA                  32.47N  97.38W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN JOSHUA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             CROWLEY                 32.58N  97.32W
04/19/2011  E1.50 INCH       TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY TELEVISION METEOROLOGIST.