Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Fort Worth, TX

082 
WWUS54 KFWD 192115
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

TXC181-192145-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110419T2145Z/
GRAYSON TX-
415 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR GRAYSON COUNTY...

AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
SHERMAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  THERE IS ANOTHER SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF DENTON COUNTY...THIS STORM WILL 
MOVE INTO TIOGA BY 425 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LUELLA...DENISON...TOM BEAN...WHITEWRIGHT...BELLS AND HENDRIX

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3378 9648 3379 9642 3374 9636 3341 9638
      3340 9683 3342 9683 3343 9693 3360 9694
      3368 9668 3383 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 255DEG 27KT 3362 9658

$$


CAVANAUGH

257 
WWUS54 KFWD 192137
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
437 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

TXC181-192145-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110419T2145Z/
GRAYSON TX-
437 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY...

AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOWE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHERMAN...HENDRIX...WHITEWRIGHT...TOM BEAN...BELLS AND LUELLA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 9636 3341 9638 3340 9683 3352 9675
      3357 9669 3365 9657 3379 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 257DEG 22KT 3354 9660

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO BRECKENRIDGE AND THE DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE
AT THE POINT WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MEET...WHICH SHOULD
BE NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP IS WEAKENING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD INDICATE INITIATION IS CLOSE TO OCCURRING IN THE FWD CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED TO OUR NORTH...WHERE THE BEST
LIFT IS OCCURRING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND ARE
SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
INFLOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT. A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF A SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO CANTON LINE THROUGH 10 PM. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AND THEN TRANSITION EAST
AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH BOX MAY BE NEEDED. THIS
BOX WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WATCH...AS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH
TEXAS BEHIND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT /COLD FRONT/. THIS WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY HELP THE ONGOING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE...WHICH IS
GOOD NEWS. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL VERY LOW NONETHELESS AND
WE'LL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH AMPLE CAPE...SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BOUNDARY WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE CAP IN
PLACE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT 30 POPS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DRY LINE WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 20/30 POPS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
GUIDANCE MEMBERS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED...AND
THESE POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE. HOPEFULLY THESE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK COME TO FRUITION AS DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  76  66  87  71 /  20  20  30  10  10
WACO, TX              72  84  68  88  73 /  20  20  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  74  62  82  68 /  50  20  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            59  72  63  86  71 /  20  20  30  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          61  72  63  84  70 /  30  20  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            65  77  66  87  71 /  30  20  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           67  77  65  87  69 /  40  20  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  81  67  88  70 /  20  20  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  86  67  89  71 /  20  20  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  75  61  85  68 /   5  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157.

&&

05/85

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
323 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE...DALLAS-FORT WORTH...CORSICANA...CANTON LINE THROUGH
MID TO LATE EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TO WACO. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MOST PROMINENT THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH ANY DISCRETE...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET...STORM MODE WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES THAT WILL CONTINUE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AND INSTABILITY ALOFT.

OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS IN
THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR EACH
DAY...BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON FEATURES...TIMING AND
INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/