Severe Thunderstorm Warning 457, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
804 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.AVIATION...
STORMS IN PARKER COUNTY RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
QUESTION IS WILL THEY HOLD TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET...AND ARE THEY
ENTERING MORE STABLE AIR. CELLS THAT TRIED TO POP IN DENTON COUNTY
DIED DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY THAN FARTHER SOUTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATION
PLACES STORMS IN NORTHWEST METROPLEX AFTER 03Z...AND WILL ADD VCTS
FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
METROPLEX
MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTER SEEMS TO BE PROGRESSING WEST-EAST ABOUT 25
MPH. BEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE SOUTH OF METROPLEX...BUT IF
STORMS CONTINUE TO GROW NORTHEAST BEST TIMING FOR ARRIVAL WOULD
BE ABOUT 0330Z/1030PM. WILL LEAVE TSRA OUT FOR NOW AND WATCH
PROGRESSION OF STORMS. HRRR...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...FAVORS THE AREAS BETWEEN DFW
& ACT.

WACO
WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF TAF THIS EVENING AS WACO SEEMS SOUTH OF THE
BEST AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
STORM EVOLUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011/
IMPRESSIVE LATE JUNE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FROM THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AS IT TREKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE RED
RIVER SOUTH OF ARDMORE OK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR BIG SPRING AND
MIDLAND. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED FROM MCKINNEY TO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TO NEAR
COMANCHE. AND FINALLY THE REMNANTS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESTS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM CARTHAGE IN SHV CWA TO
PALESTINE...BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE FURTHER WEST.

THE PRESENCE OF GOOD INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE RECOVERY FOLLOWING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
WEAKER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH FORECAST ML CAPES IN THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HELICITY MORE THAN RESPECTABLE STILL
EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE MOST UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ONCE AGAIN. MODELS THEN DIFFER SOME FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GFS SHIFTS THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WHILE NAM HINTS STRONGLY AT DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL SHOW 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS PAINTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH FOCUS MORE OVER NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...POPS ARE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGE.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  96  77  98  76 /  40  20  20  20  10
WACO, TX              73  96  75  98  75 /  50  30  20  20   0
PARIS, TX             70  94  73  94  72 /  40  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX            72  96  74  97  75 /  40  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  94  74  97  73 /  40  20  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            74  95  77  98  77 /  40  20  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           72  94  74  98  74 /  50  20  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  75  99  74 /  50  30  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  73  97  73 /  50  40  30  20   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  95  75  98  72 /  50  20  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
835 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             MILLSAP                 32.75N  98.02W
06/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       PARKER             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL MILLSAP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             SEVEN POINTS            32.33N  96.21W
06/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   PUBLIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ102-117-118-220245-
TARRANT TX-WISE TX-PARKER TX-
915 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN PARKER COUNTY
  WESTERN TARRANT COUNTY
  SOUTHERN WISE COUNTY

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRIDGEPORT TO 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRIAR TO 8 MILES EAST OF WEATHERFORD...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ALEDO...ANNETTA...
AURORA...AZLE...BENBROOK...BOYD...BRIAR...BRIDGEPORT...DECATUR...
EAGLE MOUNTAIN...HUDSON OAKS...LAKE WORTH...LAKESIDE...PECAN ACRES...
PELICAN BAY...RENO...RIVER OAKS...SANSOM PARK...SPRINGTOWN...
WEATHERFORD...WESTWORTH...WHITE SETTLEMENT...WILLOW PARK AND
COTTONDALE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3327 9739 3265 9741 3265 9778 3298 9776
      3328 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 260DEG 22KT 3317 9769 3295 9761
          3272 9762

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
921 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAMILTON                31.70N  98.12W
06/21/2011  M71 MPH          HAMILTON           TX   AWOS

            KMNZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             5 NE PERRIN             33.08N  98.01W
06/21/2011  E0.75 INCH       JACK               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN JOPLIN