Severe Thunderstorm Warning 454, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.AVIATION...
METROPLEX
MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTER SEEMS TO BE PROGRESSING WEST-EAST ABOUT 25
MPH. BEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE SOUTH OF METROPLEX...BUT IF
STORMS CONTINUE TO GROW NORTHEAST BEST TIMING FOR ARRIVAL WOULD
BE ABOUT 0330Z/1030PM. WILL LEAVE TSRA OUT FOR NOW AND WATCH
PROGRESSION OF STORMS. HRRR...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...FAVORS THE AREAS BETWEEN DFW
& ACT.

WACO
WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF TAF THIS EVENING AS WACO SEEMS SOUTH OF THE
BEST AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
STORM EVOLUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011/
IMPRESSIVE LATE JUNE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FROM THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AS IT TREKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE RED
RIVER SOUTH OF ARDMORE OK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR BIG SPRING AND
MIDLAND. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED FROM MCKINNEY TO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TO NEAR
COMANCHE. AND FINALLY THE REMNANTS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESTS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM CARTHAGE IN SHV CWA TO
PALESTINE...BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE FURTHER WEST.

THE PRESENCE OF GOOD INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE RECOVERY FOLLOWING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
WEAKER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH FORECAST ML CAPES IN THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HELICITY MORE THAN RESPECTABLE STILL
EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE MOST UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ONCE AGAIN. MODELS THEN DIFFER SOME FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GFS SHIFTS THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WHILE NAM HINTS STRONGLY AT DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL SHOW 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS PAINTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH FOCUS MORE OVER NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...POPS ARE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGE.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  96  77  98  76 /  40  20  20  20  10
WACO, TX              73  96  75  98  75 /  60  30  20  20   0
PARIS, TX             70  94  73  94  72 /  40  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX            72  96  74  97  75 /  40  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          72  94  74  97  73 /  40  20  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            74  95  77  98  77 /  50  20  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           72  94  74  98  74 /  50  20  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  75  99  74 /  50  30  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  96  73  97  73 /  50  40  30  20   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  95  75  98  72 /  40  20  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ129-212245-
EASTLAND TX-
515 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF CISCO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GORMAN.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3240 9878 3220 9866 3218 9870 3209 9896
      3225 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 257DEG 8KT 3221 9892

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             2 S EASTLAND            32.37N  98.82W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF EASTLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ130-220030-
ERATH TX-
653 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ERATH COUNTY

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RANGER...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HUCKABAY AND MORGAN MILL.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3251 9815 3229 9816 3232 9847 3250 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 260DEG 17KT 3241 9851

92