River Flood Warning 15, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.AVIATION...
AFTER STORMS PUSH THROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ALL THE EXCITEMENT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT VFR THROUGH PERIOD. TWO DAYS OF RAIN AND
LIGHT WINDS NEAR SUNRISE MAY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG...BUT
RIGHT NOW MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT IT. WILL BRIEF OVERNIGHT
SHIFT TO KEEP AND EYE ON VISIBILITIES. LOOKS LIKE BEST FOCUS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE DOWN WACO OR FARTHER SOUTH.  84

&&

.UPDATE...
THE NAM...RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011/
IMPRESSIVE LATE JUNE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FROM THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS AS IT TREKS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE RED
RIVER SOUTH OF ARDMORE OK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR BIG SPRING AND
MIDLAND. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED FROM MCKINNEY TO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TO NEAR
COMANCHE. AND FINALLY THE REMNANTS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESTS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM CARTHAGE IN SHV CWA TO
PALESTINE...BECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE FURTHER WEST.

THE PRESENCE OF GOOD INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE RECOVERY FOLLOWING
MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
WEAKER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE COVERAGE
OR INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WITH FORECAST ML CAPES IN THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND HELICITY MORE THAN RESPECTABLE STILL
EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE MOST UNSTABLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ONCE AGAIN. MODELS THEN DIFFER SOME FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GFS SHIFTS THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WHILE NAM HINTS STRONGLY AT DEVELOPMENT FURTHER N ALONG THE
FRONT. FOR NOW WILL SHOW 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS PAINTED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH FOCUS MORE OVER NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...POPS ARE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST RANGE.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  96  77  98  76 /  40  20  20  20  10
WACO, TX              70  96  75  98  75 /  60  30  20  20   0
PARIS, TX             70  94  73  94  72 /  40  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX            67  96  74  97  75 /  40  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  94  74  97  73 /  40  20  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            69  95  77  98  77 /  40  20  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           72  94  74  98  74 /  50  20  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  93  75  99  74 /  50  30  20  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  96  73  97  73 /  60  40  30  20   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  95  75  98  72 /  40  20  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1025 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             2 S CORSICANA           32.07N  96.47W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT MILE MARKER 229 ON
            INTERSTATE 45

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWARK                  33.00N  97.48W
06/21/2011                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            TREES WERE DOWN IN NEWARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1040 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RHOME                   33.05N  97.48W
06/21/2011                   WISE               TX   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOFS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAGINAW                 32.87N  97.37W
06/21/2011                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN IN SAGINAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1047 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HAIL             5 WNW RICHLAND          31.95N  96.51W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     TSTM WND GST     ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
06/21/2011  M58 MPH          TARRANT            TX   ASOS

            KGKY