Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASE NEAR AN ADVANCING DRY
LINE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WEDNESDAY...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE.

06Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER DURNING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AFTER SUNSET
BUT REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT FROPA BETWEEN 7S AND 9Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AND IN WACO AROUND 11Z.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
06Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMING IN SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS
SLIGHTLY.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/
MODELS YESTERDAY DID A POOR JOB OF FORECASTING THE DRY LINE/COLD
FRONT...BRINGING THE DRY LINE TOO FAR EAST AND THE FRONT DOWN TOO
FAST. WITH THE WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...ROUND TWO OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. ONCE AGAIN...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE UNCAPPED BEFORE NOON
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF CAPE. GFS HAS OVER
4000 JOULES AT DFW BY 1 PM WITH NAM SHOWING 2300. HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERE WORDING AFTER 10 AM THINKING THAT STORMS WILL START FAIRLY
EARLY AGAIN. TONIGHT FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ONCE FRONT GETS ON THROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FAIRLY COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FOR MAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL
KEEP ANY WARM UP FROM OCCURRING TOO QUICKLY. BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AND
GULF MOISTURE STARTS WORKING BACK NORTH. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING NEXT THURSDAY AND HAVE ADDED SOME 20 POPS TO
COVER IT. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  78  58  75 /  20  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              86  64  80  58  77 /  40  40  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             82  60  74  51  69 /  30  40  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  56  77  53  73 /  20  20   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  58  77  54  71 /  30  30   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            86  64  77  58  75 /  30  30   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           84  63  77  55  73 /  30  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  65  79  58  73 /  40  40  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            86  66  81  57  78 /  40  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  54  78  53  75 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

79/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
304 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL
WELLS...COMANCHE LINE. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10 AM...GENERALLY EAST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...COMANCHE LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
759 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ141-142-121330-
MILLS TX-COMANCHE TX-
759 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 759 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND MULLIN.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3160 9881 3162 9878 3166 9877 3170 9872
      3170 9869 3173 9869 3191 9847 3171 9842
      3169 9846 3167 9846 3154 9837 3138 9867
      3152 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 226DEG 33KT 3147 9880

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
901 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ130-141-143-121430-
ERATH TX-HAMILTON TX-COMANCHE TX-
901 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ERATH COUNTY
  HAMILTON COUNTY

AT 902 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
DUBLIN TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DUBLIN...HAMILTON AND
HICO.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3230 9805 3206 9793 3202 9800 3167 9777
      3142 9826 3205 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 234DEG 27KT 3202 9834 3153 9819

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ156-121445-
LAMPASAS TX-
909 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 909 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LAMPASAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAMPASAS.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3126 9804 3113 9794 3108 9791 3103 9801
      3103 9826 3109 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 245DEG 34KT 3107 9815