Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Fort Worth, TX

124 
WWUS54 KFWD 121317
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
817 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXC093-193-333-121400-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-110512T1400Z/
HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-COMANCHE TX-
817 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE...MILLS AND WEST CENTRAL HAMILTON
COUNTIES...

AT 817 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MULLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GUSTINE AROUND 855 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 9878 3165 9878 3170 9872 3170 9869
      3174 9869 3195 9847 3167 9822 3135 9870
      3136 9871 3140 9870 3141 9875 3156 9887
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 226DEG 33KT 3159 9867

$$

233 
WWUS54 KFWD 121340
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXC093-193-333-121400-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-110512T1400Z/
HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-COMANCHE TX-
840 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE...NORTH CENTRAL MILLS AND WEST CENTRAL
HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AT 841 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF GUSTINE TO 17
MILES EAST OF MULLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GUSTINE AROUND 855 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 9858 3154 9867 3159 9872 3162 9874
      3167 9875 3170 9872 3170 9869 3174 9869
      3195 9847 3167 9822 3145 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 226DEG 33KT 3182 9857 3160 9837

$$

901 
WWUS54 KFWD 121357
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXC093-193-333-121405-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0288.000000T0000Z-110512T1400Z/
HAMILTON TX-MILLS TX-COMANCHE TX-
857 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE...NORTH
CENTRAL MILLS AND WEST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 900 AM
CDT...

AT 855 AM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING 
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND WAS JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. WIND GUSTS TO 45 
MPH AND SMALL HAIL REMAIN LIKELY OVER COMANCHE AND HAMILTON COUNTIES 
THROUGH 10 AM...AND THESE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR 
REINTENSIFICATION.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3147 9858 3154 9867 3159 9872 3162 9874
      3167 9875 3170 9872 3170 9869 3174 9869
      3195 9847 3167 9822 3145 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 226DEG 33KT 3191 9846 3169 9826

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASE NEAR AN ADVANCING DRY
LINE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WEDNESDAY...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE.

06Z MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER DURNING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AFTER SUNSET
BUT REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT FROPA BETWEEN 7S AND 9Z
AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AND IN WACO AROUND 11Z.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
06Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMING IN SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS
SLIGHTLY.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/
MODELS YESTERDAY DID A POOR JOB OF FORECASTING THE DRY LINE/COLD
FRONT...BRINGING THE DRY LINE TOO FAR EAST AND THE FRONT DOWN TOO
FAST. WITH THE WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE...ROUND TWO OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. ONCE AGAIN...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE UNCAPPED BEFORE NOON
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF CAPE. GFS HAS OVER
4000 JOULES AT DFW BY 1 PM WITH NAM SHOWING 2300. HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERE WORDING AFTER 10 AM THINKING THAT STORMS WILL START FAIRLY
EARLY AGAIN. TONIGHT FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ONCE FRONT GETS ON THROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FAIRLY COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FOR MAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL
KEEP ANY WARM UP FROM OCCURRING TOO QUICKLY. BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AND
GULF MOISTURE STARTS WORKING BACK NORTH. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME
PRECIP DEVELOPING NEXT THURSDAY AND HAVE ADDED SOME 20 POPS TO
COVER IT. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  78  58  75 /  20  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              86  64  80  58  77 /  40  40  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             82  60  74  51  69 /  30  40  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  56  77  53  73 /  20  20   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  58  77  54  71 /  30  30   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            86  64  77  58  75 /  30  30   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           84  63  77  55  73 /  30  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  65  79  58  73 /  40  40  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            86  66  81  57  78 /  40  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  54  78  53  75 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

79/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
304 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL
WELLS...COMANCHE LINE. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10 AM...GENERALLY EAST OF A
BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...COMANCHE LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
759 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXZ141-142-121330-
MILLS TX-COMANCHE TX-
759 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 759 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND MULLIN.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3160 9881 3162 9878 3166 9877 3170 9872
      3170 9869 3173 9869 3191 9847 3171 9842
      3169 9846 3167 9846 3154 9837 3138 9867
      3152 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 226DEG 33KT 3147 9880