Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELED 6 COUNTIES FROM THE WESTERN EDGE OF SEVERE WATCH
BOX 283. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE HOUR AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THOSE COUNTIES NEXT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRACK
AND TRENDS OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE MAKING A
FINAL DECISION. ALSO DID UPDATE HOURLY TRENDS AND INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION SOME
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FORTUNATELY THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS
EXITED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX AREA TERMINALS WHERE A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF -TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED IN TAFS FOR LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIP. FURTHER SOUTH IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
OVERALL LINE MAY IMPACT THE WACO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR. TEMPO
+TSRA WILL BE MENTIONED AT ACT THROUGH 01Z WITH PREVAILING -TSRA
THROUGH 03Z.

ONCE SQUALL LINE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AREAWIDE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR A GOOD BET AT ACT BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE
TOMORROW AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN EXTENDED
PORTION OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/
FINDING ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS SURGED
FAR EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SEVERE WINDS ALONG LEADING EDGE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NEW SVR WATCH
THROUGH 03Z (10 PM CDT) REPLACES PREVIOUS WATCH.

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FINALLY VEER AND PUSH DRYLINE
INTO NW ZONES THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN.

FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL COOL
AIR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  86  61  80  55 / 100  20  20   5   5
WACO, TX              70  86  63  80  56 / 100  30  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             67  84  61  75  52 / 100  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            63  86  59  76  52 /  70  20  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          63  85  59  75  51 / 100  20  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  87  62  77  55 / 100  20  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           69  84  62  77  54 / 100  20  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  84  64  78  56 / 100  30  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  84  64  80  55 / 100  30  30   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  87  55  77  50 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

30/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS EAST OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...
GOLDTHWAITE LINE WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF
A SHERMAN...DALLAS...GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

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