Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS LLVL JET
WEAKENS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD TREND TO THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT...THEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD START
UP AGAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...BUT MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. WILL LEAVE THE CB IN THE METROPLEX TAFS
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT A BREAK UNTIL NOCTURNAL STORMS
START UP AGAIN.

AT WACO...EXPECT THUNDER TO THREATEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
OCCURS...THEN WHEN WACO IS NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT.    84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A PARIS...TERRELL...CLEBURNE...
BROWNWOOD LINE AS OF 3 AM. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE
SUNSET. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE ELEVATED
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OF NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL SEE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AFTER BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WE WILL START TO SEE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  47  54  44  70 /  90  80  80  40   5
WACO, TX              79  45  56  41  72 /  70  80  70  40   5
PARIS, TX             66  48  53  45  68 / 100  80  80  50   5
DENTON, TX            62  45  53  39  70 /  90  70  70  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  44  53  39  69 / 100  80  80  40   5
DALLAS, TX            68  47  54  45  70 / 100  80  80  40   5
TERRELL, TX           74  46  54  43  68 / 100  80  80  50   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  50  56  46  68 /  80  80  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  46  56  42  71 /  60  80  60  40   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  44  51  37  71 /  80  80  70  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
525 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TORNADO RISK IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS SHOULD MULTIPLE STORMS
PASS THROUGH A GIVEN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LESS...BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ094-095-011245-
LAMAR TX-FANNIN TX-
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 708 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DODD CITY AND HONEY GROVE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3389 9550 3387 9538 3359 9571 3345 9603
      3372 9631 3378 9628 3377 9618 3382 9619
      3384 9616 3385 9602 3388 9600 3386 9597
      3389 9595 3385 9583 3386 9578 3391 9575
      3390 9568 3395 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 227DEG 40KT 3370 9592

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SHERMAN            33.65N  96.59W
05/01/2011                   GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOFS BLOWN OFF OF 2 BUILDINGS AT NORTH TEXAS REGIONAL
            AIRPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
717 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DENISON                 33.75N  96.55W
05/01/2011                   GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STEEPLE BLOWN OFF OF PARKSIDE BAPTIST CHURCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 AM     HAIL             1.5 S COLLINSVILLE      33.55N  96.92W
05/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ094-105-011345-
FANNIN TX-HUNT TX-
810 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FANNIN COUNTY
  NORTHERN HUNT COUNTY

AT 809 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF
DENISON TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...
CELESTE...DODD CITY...ECTOR...HONEY GROVE...LEONARD...SAVOY...WOLFE
CITY AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3388 9590 3328 9586 3323 9628 3335 9628
      3335 9629 3335 9633 3362 9638 3373 9637
      3371 9631 3378 9628 3377 9618 3382 9619
      3384 9617 3385 9602 3388 9600 3386 9597
      3389 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 253DEG 35KT 3378 9638 3330 9631

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HAIL             LONE CAMP               32.70N  98.27W
05/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       PALO PINTO         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN LONE CAMP