Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.AVIATION...
FRONT NOW FROM A LAMPASAS...HILLSBORO...TERRELL...SULHPUR SPRINGS
LINE MOVING ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LLJ AND WAA EXPECTED
TO CRANK UP BY 09Z AND AFTER BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MAINLY THE
DFW TERMINALS...AS FIRST LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW. VFR CONDS WILL GO QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 07Z-09Z OR
2-4 AM CDT IN THE MORNING WITH DFW SITES INDICATING SOME SHRA/CB
MENTION AS ELEVATED/EMBEDDED CONVECTION OCCURS ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. SOME IFR MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z...BUT WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH.

WILL ONLY INTRODUCE IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS...BUT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE
MAY NEED TO EXTEND IFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z OR LATER DEPENDING
ON HOW THINGS SET UP. OTHERWISE...HAVE CIGS ONLY SLOWLY RISING
INTO HIGH MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SUNDAY...IMPROVING LATE IN THE PERIOD OR 00Z MON/7 PM SUN
EVENING AS WE GET IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES WITH SUBSIDENCE.

WITH THIS BEING SO PROLONGED OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED THUNDER WITH
ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT/RAIN AND UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CURRENT
FRONT MOVES TOO...CONFIDENCE BEYOND 12Z OR FIRST 6 HOURS IS NOT
HIGH AND WOULD EXPECT MANY AMENDMENTS/CHANGES NEXT 24-30 HRS.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
WE ARE CANCELING THE TORNADO WATCH WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO RE-INITIATE LATER TONIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENCOUNTERS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HAVE CUT POPS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 1AM.

TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND STORMY AS A HEALTHY MOIST FEED
CONTINUES AND RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXTENDED OUTLOOKS FOR VERY HEAVY 5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR FROM FORT WORTH TO LITTLE ROCK AND INTO
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI REMAINS VALID. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011/
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HELPS TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE CAP WILL COMPLETELY BREAK AND SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN
DEVELOP. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT WHICH WAS NEAR
A GAINESVILLE...FORT WORTH...TO COMANCHE LINE AT 3 PM. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY WEAK DUE TO VIGOROUS MIXING ON
THE LEADING EDGE. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SINCE
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BE WEAK...STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

STORMS COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT AS WELL AS LIFT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INCREASES.
STORMS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND WILL POSE A BIT
LESS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT STILL MAY CONTAIN SOME HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF IT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE. WE EXPECT
AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS OF A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT BUT
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL DEFICIT...THE EXPECTED QPF AND DURATION
OF THE EVENT...WE DO NOT FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD COME TO AN END TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION
AND MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUIET OVERALL WITH DRY
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY RETURNING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST SO WILL
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF POPS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  68  47  55  43 /  60  90  50  70  50
WACO, TX              71  76  48  57  42 /  30  70  60  60  50
PARIS, TX             61  66  48  54  43 /  60  90  60  70  50
DENTON, TX            58  61  46  57  39 /  60  90  50  70  40
MCKINNEY, TX          61  66  45  56  38 /  60  90  60  70  50
DALLAS, TX            66  70  47  55  44 /  60  90  60  70  50
TERRELL, TX           67  72  49  56  42 /  50  80  60  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  78  50  56  45 /  40  70  60  60  50
TEMPLE, TX            72  79  48  56  41 /  30  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  60  43  53  38 /  60  70  40  70  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-020215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
907 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME STORMS
COULD AGAIN BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BEGINNING IN EASTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.

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