Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS LLVL JET
WEAKENS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD TREND TO THE WARM SIDE OF
THE FRONT...THEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD START
UP AGAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT NEAR MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...BUT MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME. WILL LEAVE THE CB IN THE METROPLEX TAFS
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT A BREAK UNTIL NOCTURNAL STORMS
START UP AGAIN.

AT WACO...EXPECT THUNDER TO THREATEN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
OCCURS...THEN WHEN WACO IS NORTH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT.    84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF A PARIS...TERRELL...CLEBURNE...
BROWNWOOD LINE AS OF 3 AM. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE
SUNSET. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE ELEVATED
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
AREA NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OF NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL SEE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AFTER BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WE WILL START TO SEE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  47  54  44  70 /  90  80  80  40   5
WACO, TX              79  45  56  41  72 /  70  80  70  40   5
PARIS, TX             66  48  53  45  68 / 100  80  80  50   5
DENTON, TX            62  45  53  39  70 /  90  70  70  30   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  44  53  39  69 / 100  80  80  40   5
DALLAS, TX            68  47  54  45  70 / 100  80  80  40   5
TERRELL, TX           74  46  54  43  68 / 100  80  80  50   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  50  56  46  68 /  80  80  70  50   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  46  56  42  71 /  60  80  60  40   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  44  51  37  71 /  80  80  70  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
525 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TORNADO RISK IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS SHOULD MULTIPLE STORMS
PASS THROUGH A GIVEN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LESS...BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     HAIL             4 E NOCONA              33.78N  97.66W
05/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 4 MILES EAST OF NOCONA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ092-011215-
COOKE TX-
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  COOKE COUNTY

AT 641 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES EAST OF
NOCONA TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CALLISBURG...
GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY AND MUENSTER.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3344 9694 3343 9694 3344 9747 3387 9748
      3383 9739 3390 9731 3388 9726 3391 9720
      3387 9716 3383 9720 3377 9719 3373 9715
      3373 9710 3380 9710 3382 9706 3385 9709
      3385 9702 3389 9699 3394 9700 3395 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1141Z 261DEG 38KT 3383 9745 3336 9740

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

TXZ115-011215-
STEPHENS TX-
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 649 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES WEST OF CISCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...CRYSTAL
FALLS...GUNSIGHT AND NECESSITY.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN CLYDE.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3260 9910 3284 9911 3296 9875 3296 9869
      3255 9858 3252 9873 3252 9910 3259 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 243DEG 36KT 3255 9933