Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

021 
WWUS55 KFGZ 122231
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
331 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

AZC005-122239-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110912T2230Z/
COCONINO AZ-
331 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING JUST SOUTH OF
BITTER SPRINGS HAS WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.


LAT...LON 3664 11128 3638 11122 3635 11169 3652 11174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 257DEG 24KT 3646 11141

$$
JJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS OVER ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD TODAY WHERE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST. THIS RISK WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT. FLOODING RISKS
WILL BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOVEMENT...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS...OR TRAINING CELLS...COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS. BY THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION...AND TO THE MONSOON
SEASON. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE THESE TRENDS WELL COVERED...NO
UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 18Z-20Z. MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER
03Z-05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................PETERSON
AVIATION................MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
603 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-130700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
603 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND OR WIND GUSTS OVER
58 MPH. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME COULD
BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.