Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

316 
WWUS55 KFGZ 122335
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

AZC017-130000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110913T0000Z/
NAVAJO AZ-
435 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 431 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR PINON...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF KEAMS CANYON...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 11004 3593 11000 3592 11040 3611 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 255DEG 21KT 3605 11021

$$

JJ

254 
WWUS55 KFGZ 122352
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
452 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

AZC017-130000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-110913T0000Z/
NAVAJO AZ-
452 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 449 PM MST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...OR 5 
MILES EAST OF PINON ALONG ROUTE 4...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ROUTE 4 EAST OF PINON
TO NEAR THE APACHE COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 11013 3612 11019 3615 11003 3598 11001
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 255DEG 21KT 3605 11008

$$
JJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST MON SEP 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY BUSY DAY WITH MULTIPLE SEVERE AND TORNADIC
CELLS. THE DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING WILL SUFFICE.

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS OVER ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH AND WEST TODAY WHERE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST. THIS RISK WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT. FLOODING RISKS
WILL BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOVEMENT...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS...OR TRAINING CELLS...COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS. BY THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIPITATION...AND TO THE MONSOON
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z THIS EVENING...THEN THE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE.
MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................PETERSON
AVIATION................MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
603 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-130700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
603 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND OR WIND GUSTS OVER
58 MPH. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME COULD
BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.