Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SUMMERTIME WEDGE FRONT OR BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST WEST OF
ATLANTA OR NEAR A DALTON TO NEWNAN TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
STRETCH FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO VIDALIA AND SOUTHWARD. THE 3000-3500
CAPES IN THE AREA SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE TO SEVERE
LEVELS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...
AS THE STORMS CLUSTER ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH... ALONG WITH OVER
2.0 INCH PW'S AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT... EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND THE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FOR MOST STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEDGE FRONT NOSING
IN FROM THE NE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH A COOLER/MORE STABLE
AIR MASS SPREADING IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW
AMPLE QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS THE MEANDERING FRONT
PROVIDES A FOCUS AND OVERRUNNING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. IT APPEARS A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD HELP SHUNT THE PRECIP FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY... WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT AT LEAST
NE GA WILL BE RAIN CHANCE FREE. AS FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE WAS
SURPRISINGLY CLOSE... BUT LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE ON SUNDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF THE WEDGE FRONT MEANDERING NEAR THE GA-FL LINE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN
OVER NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOTED IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS SUGGESTS
LITTLE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM-UP
BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT NEAR STORMS. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SOME IFR-MVFR VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT
VARIABLE AT CSG. HOW MUCH CONVECTION WHERE AND WHEN STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BDL

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS...CEILINGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS NEAR ATL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  86  69  87 /  40  60  30  30
ATLANTA         74  86  70  85 /  40  60  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  81  67  82 /  30  60  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    72  86  70  87 /  40  60  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  88  73  87 /  40  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     72  85  69  85 /  40  60  30  30
MACON           76  87  73  88 /  40  60  40  50
ROME            73  87  72  89 /  40  60  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  86  71  86 /  40  60  40  40
VIDALIA         76  88  73  88 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CAPES ABOVE
2000 CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOW. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE BIGGER STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SUMMIT REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

BDL

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