Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SUMMERTIME WEDGE FRONT OR BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST WEST OF
ATLANTA OR NEAR A DALTON TO NEWNAN TO MILLEDGEVILLE LINE. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL GA...AND IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
STRETCH FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO VIDALIA AND SOUTHWARD. THE 3000-3500
CAPES IN THE AREA SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE TO SEVERE
LEVELS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...
AS THE STORMS CLUSTER ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH... ALONG WITH OVER
2.0 INCH PW'S AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT... EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND THE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FOR MOST STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEDGE FRONT NOSING
IN FROM THE NE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH A COOLER/MORE STABLE
AIR MASS SPREADING IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... RESULTING IN MUCH
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW
AMPLE QPF ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS THE MEANDERING FRONT
PROVIDES A FOCUS AND OVERRUNNING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN BEHIND
THE FRONT. IT APPEARS A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD HELP SHUNT THE PRECIP FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY... WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT AT LEAST
NE GA WILL BE RAIN CHANCE FREE. AS FOR TEMPS...MOS GUIDANCE WAS
SURPRISINGLY CLOSE... BUT LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE ON SUNDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF THE WEDGE FRONT MEANDERING NEAR THE GA-FL LINE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN
OVER NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOTED IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS SUGGESTS
LITTLE PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM-UP
BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT NEAR STORMS. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SOME IFR-MVFR VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT
VARIABLE AT CSG. HOW MUCH CONVECTION WHERE AND WHEN STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BDL

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS...CEILINGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS NEAR ATL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  86  69  87 /  40  60  30  30
ATLANTA         74  86  70  85 /  40  60  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  81  67  82 /  30  60  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    72  86  70  87 /  40  60  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  88  73  87 /  40  60  40  50
GAINESVILLE     72  85  69  85 /  40  60  30  30
MACON           76  87  73  88 /  40  60  40  50
ROME            73  87  72  89 /  40  60  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  86  71  86 /  40  60  40  40
VIDALIA         76  88  73  88 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CAPES ABOVE
2000 CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOW. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE BIGGER STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SUMMIT REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

BDL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ106-142115-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL...45 MPH
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN CRISP COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL STATE PARK TO
ARABI THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS CRISP COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL STATE PARK...RAINES...
ARABI...WENONA...HATLEY AND CORDELE. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS
INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8394 3190 8394 3193 8392 3203 8396
      3203 8376 3197 8370 3190 8361 3182 8361
      3182 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 270DEG 2KT 3201 8389 3192 8380
          3187 8371

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
434 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ097-098-107>109-142115-
434 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL...45 MPH
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN
WILCOX...TREUTLEN...PULASKI...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOPERTON TO UNION THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WILCOX...TREUTLEN...PULASKI...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 PM EDT. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO
LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 8355 3230 8338 3227 8335 3232 8328
      3234 8330 3242 8320 3246 8274 3237 8245
      3229 8267 3231 8272 3225 8279 3200 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 271DEG 2KT 3236 8258 3229 8287
          3214 8325

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
512 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ104>106-142200-
512 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL...40 MPH
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN SUMTER...CRISP AND
DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DESOTO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SUMTER...CRISP AND DOOLY COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. DRIVERS
SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8393 3191 8394 3191 8413 3194 8426
      3211 8440 3218 8409 3210 8374 3184 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 117DEG 4KT 3199 8403

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
537 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LESLIE                  31.96N 84.09W
07/14/2011                   SUMTER             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 280

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA CROSSE               32.19N 84.24W
07/14/2011                   SCHLEY             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN

&&

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
541 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ085-086-097-142230-
541 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL...40 MPH
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN LAURENS...JOHNSON AND
EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEXSY TO
MEEKS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAURENS...JOHNSON AND EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT.
JUNCTION...NORRISTOWN...LEXSY...COVENA...NUNEZ...SCOTT AND ADRIAN.
DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8223 3250 8249 3250 8253 3254 8282
      3275 8262 3271 8229 3262 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 076DEG 4KT 3252 8221 3253 8235
          3259 8256

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
547 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ080>083-094-095-142230-
547 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL...45 MPH
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN
TWIGGS...PEACH...TAYLOR...BIBB...CRAWFORD AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NAKOMIS TO TARVERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TWIGGS...PEACH...TAYLOR...BIBB...CRAWFORD AND HOUSTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM EDT. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO
LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 8412 3273 8385 3270 8354 3253 8337
      3240 8367 3251 8386 3255 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 146DEG 4KT 3259 8401 3248 8373
          3253 8345