Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
107 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING
THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
MEANWHILE MODELS SIMILAR WITH BACK DOOR FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING OF THE DAY...GOOD CHANCE POPS SEEM
IN ORDER TODAY. GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING A WAVE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BACK
TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT SLIPPING FARTHER SOUTH.
SEVERE STORMS NOT SO MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...BUT FOCUS WILL
BE MORE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR BETTER. WITH SOME COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING
INTO THE STATE...INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HARD CALL. NAM MOS RUNNING SOME 5
TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN GFS MOS ON HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
COMPROMISE SEEMS BEST SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...AND WITH THIS
COMPROMISE EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MAV/MET MOS TEMPS ARE MORE IN LINE SATURDAY AND PLAN TO STAY
CLOSE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PROGS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK
BOUNDARY NEAR THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INDICATED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY WILL HOLD ON TO LOW CHANCE POPS
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS HINTING AT
ANOTHER BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MAY SEE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES BACK ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
READINGS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-14

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     101 1966     74 1940     79 1980     61 1967
                1954
                1932
   KATL      98 1954     75 1967     81 1980     59 1976
                1938        1940                    1967
                                                    1897
   KCSG     102 1977     82 1999     79 1981     64 1953
                1966        1967
                            1964
   KMCN     101 1977     76 1911     78 1980     61 1967
                                        1932        1918

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT NEAR STORMS. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS INCREASING TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SOME IFR-MVFR VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT
VARIABLE AT CSG. HOW MUCH CONVECTION WHERE AND WHEN STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BDL

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS...CEILINGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS NEAR ATL.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION AND IMPACT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          94  72  82  68 /  50  40  50  40
ATLANTA         93  73  83  69 /  50  40  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     88  70  77  64 /  40  30  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  84  71 /  50  30  60  40
COLUMBUS        95  75  87  73 /  50  50  60  50
GAINESVILLE     92  72  80  68 /  50  30  50  40
MACON           95  75  85  72 /  50  50  60  50
ROME            93  74  89  71 /  40  30  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  93  73  83  70 /  50  50  60  50
VIDALIA         95  76  88  73 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. CAPES ABOVE
2000 CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOW. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE BIGGER STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SUMMIT REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

BDL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
302 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ066-067-141930-
302 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN TROUP AND
MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SAINT MARKS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
AREAS AROUND SAINT MARKS...LUTHERSVILLE...LONE OAK...MOUNTVILLE...
HOGANSVILLE...LOUISE...HARRISONVILLE AND LAGRANGE. RESIDENTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD
NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 8495 3322 8487 3319 8486 3322 8486
      3322 8484 3323 8474 3305 8474 3300 8503
      3319 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 077DEG 9KT 3313 8486

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
306 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

GAZ091-102-103-141930-
306 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER...STEWART AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEMINOLE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WEBSTER...STEWART AND MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SEMINOLE...CHURCH
HILL...ZELLOBEE...RICHLAND...RENFROE...BROOKLYN...CHARLES...
WESTVILLE...LOUVALE...PROVIDENCE CANYON STATE PARK AND LUMPKIN. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8492 3222 8497 3224 8492 3223 8482
      3222 8481 3223 8480 3223 8466 3230 8465
      3230 8457 3209 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 078DEG 13KT 3219 8467