Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD POOL HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND A DECENT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE CAN BE OBSERVED BETWEEN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE IT IS
82 IN DALTON AND THEN CARTERSVILLE SOUTHWARD WHERE IT IS 90 AT
CARTERSVILLE. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED FROM ROME TO
DAHLONEGA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THIS FEATURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AND HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED REPORTS OF HAIL TODAY WITH THE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. MCS
OVER WESTERN TENN IS HEADING SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA BUT IT WILL
SPREAD INTO GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

EXPECT TO SEE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WITH TO THE ABOUT TO PUSH
INTO GEORGIA...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE
NIGHT /LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON/.

ON MONDAY MAY HAVE THE LINGERING REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
TODAY TO HELP INITIATE STORMS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION
MAY SEE AN MCS FROM THE STORMS IN WESTERN MISSOURI TRY AND MAKE
IT INTO THE STATE. THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA. GIVEN THIS...THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE A
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON TUESDAY WITH IT ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE
DIRUNAL CONVECTION.

LOW TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY DEPEND ON A LOT OF HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN CLEARS
OUT AND IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT HOWEVER THE ECMWF
WANTS TO LINGER THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...GFS
IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BUT EVEN WITH THAT...CANT
RULE OUT DIRUNAL THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM TENNESSEE AND POP UP
STORMS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF IT. TEMPO THUNDER NORTHERN TAF SITES
GENERALLY 20Z-01Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO LOW VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AREAS WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN STORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXCEPT
STRONGER AND GUSTY IN/AROUND STORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED TO HIGH ON MOST ELEMENTS...EXCEPT LOW TO MED ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  95  72  96 /  30  30  20  30
ATLANTA         72  94  75  92 /  30  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     65  91  68  90 /  40  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    67  93  69  94 /  30  40  20  40
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  95 /  40  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     70  94  73  93 /  30  40  20  40
MACON           70  95  73  96 /  30  40  20  30
ROME            70  94  71  96 /  30  40  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  93  70  93 /  40  30  20  30
VIDALIA         74  95  75  95 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WALTON...WARREN...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 RANGE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
413 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ002-003-011-262100-
413 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN WALKER...CATOOSA
AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN THROUGH WEST OF
CLOUDLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WALKER...
CATOOSA AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN BEFORE ANY RAIN REACHES YOUR AREA. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CEDAR GROVE...COOPER HEIGHTS...
CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...CLOUDLAND...CHICKAMAUGA...
FAIRVIEW...MENLO...FORT OGLETHORPE...LAKEVIEW...CENTER POST...
BERRYTON...BLUE SPRING...LAFAYETTE AND LINWOOD.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8498 3488 8501 3486 8506 3482 8507
      3482 8513 3473 8517 3472 8506 3467 8505
      3444 8518 3438 8533 3428 8539 3429 8547
      3463 8554 3467 8549 3477 8545 3488 8544
      3497 8537 3499 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 313DEG 31KT 3526 8546 3500 8549
          3479 8558 3456 8574 3428 8617

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
413 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ016-023-024-262045-
413 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL IN WHITE...BANKS
AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CLERMONT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITE...BANKS AND HALL COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLERMONT...LULA...MOSSY CREEK...
PINEFIELD CROSSROADS...HOLLINGSWORTH AND LEAF. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8361 3451 8365 3444 8362 3450 8353
      3449 8348 3434 8339 3433 8385 3447 8392
      3446 8389 3450 8384 3454 8384 3464 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 252DEG 14KT 3445 8379

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
426 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MURRAYVILLE       34.39N 83.89W
06/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       HALL               GA   PUBLIC

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ086-262100-
432 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN EMANUEL
COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...TWIN CITY...LEXSY...
STILLMORE AND OAK PARK. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 8215 3248 8217 3243 8218 3241 8219
      3236 8225 3235 8233 3259 8232 3261 8211
      3255 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 355DEG 4KT 3251 8221