Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

UPDATE...
ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM OUTFLOW FROM
MCS IN TN VALLEY. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT THINK AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
BE ON TARGET...GIVEN THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. ALSO...THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS SEEM A LITTLE LOW IN
COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AND TENDED TOWARDS THE MORE REPRESENTATIVE MET GUIDANCE.

SPC HAS INCLUDED MORE COUNTIES IN THE LATEST UPDATE OF THE DAY 1
SLIGHT RISK...AND ENVIRONMENT SEEMS MOST CONDUCIVE TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE HAZARDS
OF DEVELOPING STRONG STORMS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MCS CURRENTLY OVER MO/IL/IN IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH 18Z...THEN SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE H7 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SPC BRINGS A MORE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT THROUGH TODAY BRINGING THE MCS INTO KY/TN/NRN AL AND NRN
GA. GFS POPS HAS 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA AND LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 50
POPS TONIGHT...AGAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE MCS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE
CURRENT MCS OVER MO/IL AND IT APPEARS LIKE A REPEAT MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP 30 TO 50 POPS GOING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO WARM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND IT APPEARS IT STILL HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN. MET GUIDANCE IS DOING MUCH BETTER AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THE MET TEMPS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...ECMWF THE
SLOWER OF THE TWO. A LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
ALSO BRINGING DRIER AIR. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND MOISTURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

17
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM TENNESSEE AND POP UP
STORMS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF IT. TEMPO THUNDER NORTHERN TAF SITES
GENERALLY 20Z-01Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO LOW VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AREAS WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR
RANGE IN STORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS EXCEPT STRONGER
AND GUSTY IN/AROUND STORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED TO HIGH ON MOST ELEMENTS...EXCEPT LOW TO MED ON TIMING OF
CONVECTION.

49
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  70  95  72 /  50  30  40  20
ATLANTA         92  73  92  75 /  60  30  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  67  84  67 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  69  93  71 /  60  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  74  96  74 /  50  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     92  71  92  72 /  60  30  40  20
MACON           97  71  97  73 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            92  68  92  70 /  60  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  94  70  94  71 /  50  30  40  20
VIDALIA         96  72  96  75 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WALTON...WARREN...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 RANGE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             1 S COOPER HEIGHTS      34.79N 85.39W
06/26/2011  E1.25 INCH       WALKER             GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AT THE
            PLEASANT GROVE BAPTIST CHURCH.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1201 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ002-004-011-261630-
1201 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN WHITFIELD...
WALKER AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1157 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTER POST...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD...WALKER AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTER POST...TRION...
SUTTLES MILL AND SUBLIGNA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 8538 3462 8503 3462 8506 3459 8506
      3458 8511 3446 8517 3444 8518 3455 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 289DEG 16KT 3460 8533

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ080-091-261900-
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL IN MARION AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MAUK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HOWARD...CHARING...MAUK...FIVE POINTS...
OAKLAND AND TAZEWELL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8459 3257 8447 3256 8441 3261 8441
      3263 8439 3252 8423 3240 8433 3238 8435
      3239 8436 3243 8436 3243 8438 3232 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 040DEG 4KT 3251 8438