Severe Thunderstorm Warning 379, NWS Atlanta, GA

407 
WWUS52 KFFC 261519
SVSFFC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAC295-261530-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0379.000000T0000Z-110626T1530Z/
WALKER GA-
1119 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT
FOR WALKER COUNTY...

AT 1114 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOPER HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LINWOOD...ROCK SPRING...NOBLE...LAFAYETTE...VILLANOW...SUTTLES MILL
AND NAOMI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8520 3478 8520 3477 8514 3472 8517
      3472 8505 3459 8506 3459 8515 3469 8545
      3484 8542 3487 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 287DEG 22KT 3475 8531

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MCS CURRENTLY OVER MO/IL/IN IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH 18Z...THEN SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS THE H7 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SPC BRINGS A MORE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT THROUGH TODAY BRINGING THE MCS INTO KY/TN/NRN AL AND NRN
GA. GFS POPS HAS 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA AND
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN 30
TO 50 POPS TONIGHT...AGAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE MCS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE
CURRENT MCS OVER MO/IL AND IT APPEARS LIKE A REPEAT MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND WILL THEREFORE KEEP 30 TO 50 POPS GOING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO WARM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND IT APPEARS IT STILL HAS NOT CAUGHT ON TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN. MET GUIDANCE IS DOING MUCH BETTER AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THE MET TEMPS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...ECMWF THE
SLOWER OF THE TWO. A LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND
ALSO BRINGING DRIER AIR. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND MOISTURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
THERE ARE A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG BUT THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY
VFR WITH VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
CONVECTION BEGINS TO FIRE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CEILINGS ND VSBYS IN
AND AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20Z-00Z. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT BUT LOOKING FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  70  95  72 /  40  30  40  20
ATLANTA         92  73  92  75 /  50  30  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     84  67  84  67 /  60  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  69  93  71 /  50  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  74  96  74 /  30  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     92  71  92  72 /  50  30  40  20
MACON           97  71  97  73 /  20  30  30  20
ROME            92  68  92  70 /  50  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  94  70  94  71 /  40  30  40  20
VIDALIA         96  72  96  75 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270930-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS BECAUSE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 RANGE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.