Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND DOWN TO CUBA COULD
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON OUR EAST SIDE AS THIS SLIDES NORTHWARD. THE
NAM IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS
AN OPEN WAVE WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF. OVER THE SHORT TERM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HOLDS OVER
NORTH AND INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION
FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
THE RISK IS LOW. PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT. NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THEREFORE NO RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL ON TRACK. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AS FOR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. GFS KEEPS THE
CWA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES
THE EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID WEEK. AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-10

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1953     56 1913     74 1981     50 1977
                1926
                1911
   KATL      99 1953     56 1913     74 1898     48 1977
                                        1880
   KCSG      98 1993     75 1957     75 2010     60 1980
                1968                    1998
                1963                    1981
   KMCN      99 1993     58 1913     76 1981     50 1913
                1963
                1898

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
16Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
03Z WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WEST TO NORTH TENDENCY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  94 /  30  20  20  20
ATLANTA         72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  85  67  84 /  40  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  94 /  40  30  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  96  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  40  30  30  30
MACON           69  95  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
ROME            67  95  67  94 /  40  30  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  66  95  66  93 /  30  20  20  20
VIDALIA         68  95  68  94 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
313 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR 40 MPH. THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THE BEST TIME FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 10 MPH THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ONCE AGAIN AIDED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND SLOWLY DRIFT
WEST AND SOUTH...HOWEVER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
528 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ059-092200-
528 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN JASPER COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR ADGATEVILLE OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
MONTICELLO MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE ADGATEVILLE AND MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS
...MOVE INDOORS AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8375 3318 8380 3331 8378 3328 8363
      3317 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 095DEG 2KT 3323 8369

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
533 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE BOSTWICK          33.68N 83.50W
06/09/2011                   MORGAN             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MORGAN COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF SEVERAL DOWNED TREES
            ALONG GA HWY 83 NORTH OF MADISON.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ066-067-092200-
535 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR STOVALL...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENVILLE ALSO MOVING WEST
AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE STOVALL...GREENVILLE AND BIG SPRINGS.
MOVE INDOORS IF THREATENED BY THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8504 3297 8499 3312 8474 3307 8461
      3301 8464 3299 8472 3303 8481 3299 8488
      3296 8474 3287 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 093DEG 9KT 3292 8485