Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.UPDATE...

MOST FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST METRO AREA. WILL SEND A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES OTHER THAN TO
HOURLY TRENDS.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011/

PREV DISCUSSION...

..MARGINAL INCREASES TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011/
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. NORTH
OF THIS FEATURE...A VERY WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INTO
ALABAMA. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND
OUTFLOWS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT A FEW TICKS OF LIGHTNING AS WELL FROM TIME TO
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED LONGER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS
BUT EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO START THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY MEANDERING
SOUTHWARD DUE TO VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. OUTFLOWS SHOULD ALLOW
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD AND EXPECT THIS TO PERHAPS BE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE FROM ATL
NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH NEWER WRF MODELS COMING IN SUGGEST SCT
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL GA...AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP JUST 20 POPS IN
UNTIL ATMOSPHERE PROVES IT CAN SUSTAIN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. STILL
LOOKING AT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
STACKED STORM STRUCTURE MAY INHIBIT THIS TO AN EXTENT WITH WET
MICROBURSTS THE HIGHER CONCERN.

A NEAR CARBON COPY DAY IS WHAT THE MODELS DEPICT FOR FRIDAY WITH
THE NORTHERN ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY...ALBEIT
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
WEAKNESS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALLOWING FOR VERY SLOW STORM
MOTION WITH WET MICROBURSTS AND SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL BEGIN MONITORING POTENTIAL WAVE OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST AND POTENTIAL INDIRECT INFLUENCES ON LOCAL WEATHER. FOR
NOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PENCIL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA WITH ENHANCED DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR
VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH...IT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LOW END
SCT CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011/
WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. MORE
INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL HIGH
SHIFTS WEST AND ENERGY DIVES INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT WILL WAIT FOR A FEW MODEL CONFIRMATIONS WITH FUTURE
RUNS BEFORE INCREASING TOO MUCH.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 2008     70 1912     74 1981     51 1977
                                        1933        1931
   KATL      98 2008     66 1891     75 1995     53 1931
                                        1981        1930
                                        1899        1913
   KCSG      97 2008     76 1966     78 1981     54 1977
                1986
                1954

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
16Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
03Z WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WEST TO NORTH TENDENCY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  66  95  68 /  20  30  10  20
ATLANTA         93  71  92  71 /  20  20  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     87  61  86  65 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    95  63  95  65 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        98  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     94  69  91  70 /  20  20  20  20
MACON           97  65  96  66 /  10  10  10  10
ROME            96  64  95  66 /  20  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  95  62  94  64 /  10  20  10  20
VIDALIA         93  69  95  69 /  10   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
525 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WAS STRETCHED
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTH GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. IN
ADDITION...PENNY-SIZED HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO AUGUSTA FROM 4 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND THUS
WILL NOT HELP TO SUPPRESS AS MUCH CONVECTION AS IT HAS THE PAST
FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED FROM
ATLANTA TO MACON...WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH CAPES OF 1500 J/KG...WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AND THUS STORMS MAY BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ013-014-021-022-091830-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN PICKENS...CHEROKEE...DAWSON AND FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE HOLLIS LATHEM RESERVOIR...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PICKENS...CHEROKEE...DAWSON AND FORSYTH COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE REAVIS MOUNTAIN...
HOLLIS LATHEM RESERVOIR...MARBLEHILL...HIGHTOWER...BALL GROUND...
DREW...DUCKTOWN...FREE HOME...BUFFINGTON...HOLBROOK...LATHEMTOWN AND
UNION HILL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 8413 3415 8418 3416 8426 3419 8426
      3418 8434 3421 8445 3446 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 015DEG 7KT 3435 8426

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ002-011-091900-
209 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALKER AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 207 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM AROUND LAFAYETTE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WALKER AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NAOMI...LAFAYETTE...LINWOOD...SUTTLES
MILL...CENTER POST...TRION AND SUBLIGNA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8537 3473 8516 3472 8517 3472 8515
      3455 8512 3452 8515 3450 8520 3450 8531
      3453 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 359DEG 6KT 3464 8526