Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND DOWN TO CUBA COULD
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON OUR EAST SIDE AS THIS SLIDES NORTHWARD. THE
NAM IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP IT AS
AN OPEN WAVE WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF. OVER THE SHORT TERM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HOLDS OVER
NORTH AND INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION
FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
THE RISK IS LOW. PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT. NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THEREFORE NO RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS...BOTH MAX AND MIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL ON TRACK. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AS FOR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. GFS KEEPS THE
CWA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES
THE EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID WEEK. AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-10

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1953     56 1913     74 1981     50 1977
                1926
                1911
   KATL      99 1953     56 1913     74 1898     48 1977
                                        1880
   KCSG      98 1993     75 1957     75 2010     60 1980
                1968                    1998
                1963                    1981
   KMCN      99 1993     58 1913     76 1981     50 1913
                1963
                1898

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND
16Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
03Z WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WEST TO NORTH TENDENCY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  70  94 /  30  20  20  20
ATLANTA         72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     67  85  67  84 /  40  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  94 /  40  30  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  96  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     71  92  71  91 /  40  30  30  30
MACON           69  95  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
ROME            67  95  67  94 /  40  30  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  66  95  66  93 /  30  20  20  20
VIDALIA         68  95  68  94 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
313 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL...AND WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR 40 MPH. THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF AN ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THE BEST TIME FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 10 MPH THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ONCE AGAIN AIDED IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AND SLOWLY DRIFT
WEST AND SOUTH...HOWEVER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ033-034-092015-
330 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS IN GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DULUTH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SUWANEE...LAWRENCEVILLE...JOHNS
CREEK...DULUTH...PLEASANT HILL...NORCROSS...MECHANICSVILLE...LILBURN
AND BERKELEY LAKE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8395 3389 8400 3385 8416 3386 8417
      3390 8424 3396 8428 3397 8426 3398 8426
      3407 8420 3408 8418 3406 8415 3405 8410
      3407 8412 3412 8410 3413 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 061DEG 5KT 3401 8410

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ005>007-092015-
337 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS IN MURRAY...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CONASAUGA LAKE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MURRAY...FANNIN AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOUNTAINTOWN...CONASAUGA
LAKE...FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...ETON AND CRANDALL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8462 3491 8454 3481 8447 3472 8448
      3470 8458 3471 8468 3476 8474 3480 8479
      3486 8479 3491 8476 3495 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 057DEG 3KT 3483 8464

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ006-092030-
349 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS IN FANNIN COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM COHUTTA WILDERNESS TO MORGANTON THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS FANNIN COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DIAL...BLUE RIDGE...EPWORTH...HIGDON...
COLWELL...JONES MILL...MINERAL BLUFF...MORGANTON...MINERAL BLUFF...
MORGANTON...COHUTTA WILDERNESS...HEMP...HURST...LOVING AND
MCCAYSVILLE-COPPERHILL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8420 3482 8414 3472 8426 3480 8431
      3483 8436 3487 8440 3486 8462 3499 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 230DEG 2KT 3495 8459 3495 8432
          3485 8424

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ008-009-015-016-092015-
354 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE...UNION...TOWNS AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR TURNERS CORNER IN NORTHERN LUMPKIN
COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF VOGEL STATE PARK IN UNION COUNTY ALSO MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITE...UNION...TOWNS AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. MOVE
TO A SAFE PLACE IF THREATENED BY THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8384 3464 8411 3497 8408 3498 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 185DEG 11KT 3466 8390

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ068-069-071-079-081-082-092030-
400 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT...PIKE...MONROE...UPSON...BIBB AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENETERED NEAR THOMASTON...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF LAKE TOBESOFKEE IN
WESTERN BIBB COUNTY...ALSO MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT...PIKE...MONROE...UPSON...BIBB AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH
430 PM EDT. MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THIS STORM THREATENS.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8448 3296 8412 3293 8412 3293 8406
      3295 8405 3290 8379 3273 8379 3279 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 099DEG 9KT 3288 8433

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
409 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

GAZ057-092045-
409 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN HENRY COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR OLA OR 3 MILES WEST OF MCDONOUGH
...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS HENRY COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE OLA...BLACKSVILLE AND MCDONOUGH. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 8415 3350 8416 3349 8399 3339 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 093DEG 3KT 3343 8405