Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Kansas City, MO

017 
WWUS53 KEAX 230357
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

MOC001-197-230415-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T0415Z/
ADAIR MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1057 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SCHUYLER AND NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1053 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF GREENTOP...OR 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9234 4031 9252 4039 9252 4041 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 266DEG 51KT 4036 9237
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

CDB

801 
WWUS53 KEAX 230403
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

MOC001-197-230413-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110323T0415Z/
ADAIR MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER AND
NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4025 9234 4031 9252 4039 9252 4041 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 266DEG 51KT 4036 9224

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
848 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

.UPDATE...

EARLIER SEVERE THREAT...WITH AN EYE TOWARDS SUPERCELLS ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...LOOKS TO HAVE HAS
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A THREAT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE PROGRESSIVE LINE OF STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE BACK BUILDING LINE OF STORMS LOOK TO BE THE
RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT CATCHING UP WITH THE DRYLINE IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT THE EXTENT TO WITCH IT CAN BACK BUILD WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. BASED ON HOW THE STORM LINE AXIS
CROSSES THE DRY LINE ALOFT...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THIS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM ST JOSEPH TO
MACON. A NEW TORNADO WATCH BOX /NUMBER 54/ HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF NORTHERN MISSOURI ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 TO COVER THE
THREAT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS THAT MIGHT OCCUR.

CUTTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT RANGE (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING TO THE REGION...WILL HAVE SCOOTED OFF TO THE EAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT...WILL COME A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST REGION ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT STARTING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABLE TO RANGE
ABOVE NORMAL OWING TO THE INSOLATION...THE SIGNIFICANT DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT TO THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD...AND MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE STILL GUSTY WIND. HOWEVER...DID TRIM
TEMPERATURES ON THE IOWA BORDER WHERE SOME THICK CLOUD COVER MAY
WORK IN LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL
PUSH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER UNDER THIS
RIDGE A SURFACE HIGH -FROM CENTRAL CANADA- WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL TAKE THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND OF WEDNESDAY AND BACK IT TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR
OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO HAVE A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR
FORECAST...PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BELOW
SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.

CUTTER

MEDIUM RANGE (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE ON
A GENERAL SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH IN A WORD CAN BE
DESCRIBED AS...COLD. BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS
AND CANADA WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO NOT IMPEDE THE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVES TO CONTINUE TO ZIP EAST ACROSS THE NATION...WHILE COLD
AIR FILTERS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING THESE WAVES...HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVERTISED AHEAD AS THE SHORTWAVE
IN THE ROCKIES ORGANIZES. BY SATURDAY THE WAVE WILL HAVE EXITED THE
ROCKIES...BUT LOOKS TO BE SLIDING EAST JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
WARRANT LIMITING CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY TO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AND TRIMMING THEM DOWN TO A LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD MITIGATE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL...OWING TO THE
PRECIPITATION BEING FOCUSED IN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY SHORTWAVE WILL
BE YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SECOND
WAVE THAT IT WILL BE DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE WAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS WAVE COULD STILL BRING MORE RAIN AND OR SNOW TO
THE FORECAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO MONDAY MORNING. LASTLY...ON
THE FAR SIDE OF THE WEEKEND...COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST AT
THIS TIME AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL BE OOZING ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...HAVE KEPT VICINITY THUNDER IN THE KMCI AND KSTJ
TERMINALS THIS EVENING OWING TO THE FEW STORMS SEEN ON RADAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD NOTHING WILL EFFECT EITHER OF THE
KANSAS CITY TERMINALS /OR KSTJ/ FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT THE GUSTY WIND TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD CALM A BIT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
KICKS BACK IN WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TO THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
711 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-231130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
711 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MID EVENING
AS THEY SHIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE 60S...THIS MAY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
MIGHT ALLOW FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1023 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             MILAN                   40.20N 93.12W
03/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       SULLIVAN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1034 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             GREEN CASTLE            40.26N 92.88W
03/22/2011  E0.88 INCH       SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1034 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

MOZ014-022-023-029>031-230415-
CALDWELL MO-CARROLL MO-CLAY MO-DAVIESS MO-LIVINGSTON MO-RAY MO-
1034 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...
NORTHWESTERN RAY AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1032 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRECKENRIDGE TO KEARNEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LAWSON...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...CHILLICOTHE...BRECKENRIDGE...POLO...
  EXCELSIOR ESTATES...CRYSTAL LAKES...COWGILL...WOODS HEIGHTS...
  UTICA...BRAYMER...ORRICK...MOSBY...SPRING HILL...PRATHERSVILLE...
  HOMESTEAD...MOORESVILLE...KNOXVILLE...LUDLOW AND RAYVILLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3978 9343 3919 9411 3933 9443 3946 9427
      3946 9422 3950 9422 3993 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 305DEG 19KT 3984 9375 3938 9429

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1035 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     HAIL             13 ESE UNIONVILLE       40.40N 92.78W
03/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HMORGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1036 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREEN CASTLE            40.26N 92.88W
03/22/2011  E65.00 MPH       SULLIVAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH. 3/4 INCH DIAMETER
            HAIL OBSERVED AS WELL.

&&

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1043 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             KINGSTON                39.64N 94.04W
03/22/2011  E0.75 INCH       CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

&&

ABAILEY