Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHORTER DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...OR MCC
WITH LOTS OF RAIN...SOME SEVERE.  NOWCAST TOOLS SUGGEST LOTS OF
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS. CHALLENGE
WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INTERACTION WITH MORE CONVECTION IN
NE/KS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS IS
EVEN A BIT STRONGER THAN SOLUTIONS SHOW WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DIGGING
OF THIS UPPER LOW INTO PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS SUPPORTS DYNAMIC
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD COOL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY...NORTH SECTIONS CONCEPTUALLY BASED ON CONVECTION AND TRENDS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 80S WITH SOME RISK IF
MORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM WEST AND CLOUDS FOR UPPER 70S FOR DAY
SHIFT TO MONITOR. EVEN CENTRAL SECTIONS MAY HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.  LOCAL TECHNIQUES DO
SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION TO
END BY MID DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HENCE THE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH 1/3. PLAN TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL
18Z SINCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ATTM.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE AND MOVE INTO AREA LATE EVENING
AGAIN AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAR NW
SECTIONS.  PROBLEM WILL BE OUR EXISTING ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
IMPACT THIS NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.  LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN MAIN RISK WITH PW/S 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.  HIGH DEWPOINTS TO
KEEP MOST MINS IN THE LOWER 70S.   ..NICHOLS..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
...WARM AND HUMID WITH STORMS INTO TUESDAY...NEAR RECORD COOL HIGHS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS
THE LOCATION OF SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AGAIN MARGINALLY HANDLED.
BETTER WITH DYNAMIC UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS BUT EVIDENCE PER SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE STILL TOO TEPID ON
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RESULT COULD BE MORE CONVECTION IMPACTING
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK.  WENT WITH A 60/40 BLEND
OF 80KM NAM-WRF AND GFS INTO DAY 3.  THEN A 50/50 BLEND OF HI-RES
ECMWF AND GFS.

TUESDAY...LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WITH SURFACE FRONT.  THIS AGAIN IS DUE TO HOW CONVECTION IMPACTS
EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING OUT OF UPPER LOW.  LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ARE MARGINAL ATTM BUT IN INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURS ON
SOUTH END OF SYSTEM TONIGHT THEN THIS COULD ROTATE NORTH AND PRODUCE
A TORNADO RISK THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY RECONSIDERED.  KEPT 40
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS LOWER 80S NW TO UPPER 80S SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EVENING STORMS WITH AGAIN SOME RISK OF
SEVERE IF UPPER ENERGY DOESN/T SHEAR.  MINS MID TO UPPER 60S AS WEST
WINDS AND COOLING TO ARRIVE LATE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TURNING COOLER AND CLOUDY WITH NEAR RECORD
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED BOTH DAYS.  MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE
60S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME SUGGESTION LOW TO MID 60S NORTH SECTIONS FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAINSHOWERS IN
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RISK OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN FOG
IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. MINS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE WINDS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DAMP FOR LATE JUNE.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...CLEARING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
70S APPROACHING NEAR 80F ON SUNDAY. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
MODERATE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUGGEST SOME POPCORN SHOWERS OR STORM MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST RISK SW NEAR WARM FRONT
AND NEXT SYSTEM...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
MCS ACRS EASTERN IA WITH ANOTHER FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
IA. BOTH MAY MERGE AND FORM A LARGE MCC. TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST MCS WL BRING 1-2KFT CIGS AND POSSIBLY 1-2SM WITH TSRA THROUGH
12Z. AFT 12Z/20 3-5SM RA OR POSSIBLY 6SM RA WITH VCTS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z. POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSRA DVLPMT 20Z-23Z
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS
AFT 00Z/21. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBYS. POTENTIAL
THERE FOR 2SM AND 2KFT CIGS WITH TSRA AFT 00Z/21.   ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

NICHOLS/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-210900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
430 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND NIGHT

TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING OF 1-4 INCHES.
THE GROUND ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IS SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AND POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY RISK.  A
SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE BRIEF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK.

SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE LARGE
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
430 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     TSTM WND GST     MACOMB MUNICIPAL AIRPOR 40.52N 90.65W
06/20/2011  M53 MPH          MCDONOUGH          IL   AWOS

            AWOS. TIME APPROXIMATE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ063-064-076-077-087-088-201115-
HENRY-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-
514 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...

AT 511 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WHAT CHEER TO 9 MILES WEST OF DELTA TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HEDRICK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WHAT CHEER AND DELTA AROUND 525 AM CDT...
  MARTINSBURG...HEDRICK AND HAYESVILLE AROUND 530 AM CDT...
  SIGOURNEY AND KESWICK AROUND 535 AM CDT...
  MILLERSBURG AND BATAVIA AROUND 540 AM CDT...
  SOUTH ENGLISH AROUND 545 AM CDT...

WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4151 9242 4152 9230 4163 9230 4164 9172
      4095 9168 4094 9219 4115 9219 4117 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 269DEG 32KT 4153 9250 4128 9246
          4102 9252

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 AM     HEAVY RAIN       W CANTRIL               40.64N 92.07W
06/20/2011  M2.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL FROM 1ST ROUND.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ063>068-076>078-087-ILZ015-024-201145-
CEDAR-CLINTON-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LOUISA-MERCER-MUSCATINE-
ROCK ISLAND-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-
552 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...

AT 548 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
KINROSS TO RICHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHMOND...KALONA AND BRIGHTON AROUND 605 AM CDT...
  OXFORD AND WASHINGTON AROUND 610 AM CDT...
  TIFFIN...RIVERSIDE AND HILLS AROUND 615 AM CDT...
  NORTH LIBERTY AND UNIVERSITY OF IOWA AROUND 620 AM CDT...

WINDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4193 9088 4126 9089 4115 9203 4173 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1052Z 260DEG 38KT 4166 9200 4151 9188
          4116 9201

08