Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHORTER DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...OR MCC
WITH LOTS OF RAIN...SOME SEVERE.  NOWCAST TOOLS SUGGEST LOTS OF
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS. CHALLENGE
WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INTERACTION WITH MORE CONVECTION IN
NE/KS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS IS
EVEN A BIT STRONGER THAN SOLUTIONS SHOW WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DIGGING
OF THIS UPPER LOW INTO PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS SUPPORTS DYNAMIC
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD COOL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY...NORTH SECTIONS CONCEPTUALLY BASED ON CONVECTION AND TRENDS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 80S WITH SOME RISK IF
MORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM WEST AND CLOUDS FOR UPPER 70S FOR DAY
SHIFT TO MONITOR. EVEN CENTRAL SECTIONS MAY HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.  LOCAL TECHNIQUES DO
SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION TO
END BY MID DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HENCE THE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH 1/3. PLAN TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL
18Z SINCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ATTM.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE AND MOVE INTO AREA LATE EVENING
AGAIN AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAR NW
SECTIONS.  PROBLEM WILL BE OUR EXISTING ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
IMPACT THIS NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.  LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN MAIN RISK WITH PW/S 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.  HIGH DEWPOINTS TO
KEEP MOST MINS IN THE LOWER 70S.   ..NICHOLS..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
...WARM AND HUMID WITH STORMS INTO TUESDAY...NEAR RECORD COOL HIGHS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS
THE LOCATION OF SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AGAIN MARGINALLY HANDLED.
BETTER WITH DYNAMIC UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS BUT EVIDENCE PER SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE STILL TOO TEPID ON
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RESULT COULD BE MORE CONVECTION IMPACTING
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK.  WENT WITH A 60/40 BLEND
OF 80KM NAM-WRF AND GFS INTO DAY 3.  THEN A 50/50 BLEND OF HI-RES
ECMWF AND GFS.

TUESDAY...LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WITH SURFACE FRONT.  THIS AGAIN IS DUE TO HOW CONVECTION IMPACTS
EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING OUT OF UPPER LOW.  LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ARE MARGINAL ATTM BUT IN INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURS ON
SOUTH END OF SYSTEM TONIGHT THEN THIS COULD ROTATE NORTH AND PRODUCE
A TORNADO RISK THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY RECONSIDERED.  KEPT 40
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS LOWER 80S NW TO UPPER 80S SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EVENING STORMS WITH AGAIN SOME RISK OF
SEVERE IF UPPER ENERGY DOESN/T SHEAR.  MINS MID TO UPPER 60S AS WEST
WINDS AND COOLING TO ARRIVE LATE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TURNING COOLER AND CLOUDY WITH NEAR RECORD
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED BOTH DAYS.  MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE
60S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME SUGGESTION LOW TO MID 60S NORTH SECTIONS FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAINSHOWERS IN
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RISK OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN FOG
IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. MINS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE WINDS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DAMP FOR LATE JUNE.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...CLEARING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
70S APPROACHING NEAR 80F ON SUNDAY. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
MODERATE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUGGEST SOME POPCORN SHOWERS OR STORM MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST RISK SW NEAR WARM FRONT
AND NEXT SYSTEM...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
MCS ACRS EASTERN IA WITH ANOTHER FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
IA. BOTH MAY MERGE AND FORM A LARGE MCC. TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST MCS WL BRING 1-2KFT CIGS AND POSSIBLY 1-2SM WITH TSRA THROUGH
12Z. AFT 12Z/20 3-5SM RA OR POSSIBLY 6SM RA WITH VCTS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z. POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSRA DVLPMT 20Z-23Z
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS
AFT 00Z/21. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBYS. POTENTIAL
THERE FOR 2SM AND 2KFT CIGS WITH TSRA AFT 00Z/21.   ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

NICHOLS/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
846 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-211330-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
846 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND NIGHT

TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING OF 1 TO 4
INCHES. THE GROUND ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IS SATURATED AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AND POSE A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING
FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A SECONDARY THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK.

SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
859 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE KEOSAUQUA         40.72N 91.92W
06/20/2011  M4.20 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TOMO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
916 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
06/20/2011  M1.30 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FROM 6 TO 9 AM.

&&

TOMO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
934 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW BONAPARTE         40.68N 91.85W
06/20/2011                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.60 INCHES OF RAIN FOR STORM TOTAL. GRAVEL ROADS WASHING
            OUT. AT FARMINGTON WATER IS ACROSS THE ROADS AND DITCHES
            AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING HIGH.

&&

TOMO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1029 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 AM     HEAVY RAIN       W CANTRIL               40.64N 92.07W
06/20/2011  M2.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL FROM 1ST ROUND.

0642 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/20/2011                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FOX RIVER IS ENCROACHING ON JERSEY AVENUE ON THE SOUTH
            BANK AND IS ABOUT 10 YARDS WIDE. WATER FROM THE FOX RIVER
            IS APPROACHING JERSEY AVENUE ON THE NORTH BANK.

0642 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E CANTRIL             40.64N 91.98W
06/20/2011  M2.30 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0649 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S SALEM               40.84N 91.62W
06/20/2011  M1.86 INCH       HENRY              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0649 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE FORT MADISON      40.63N 91.33W
06/20/2011  M1.10 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE ANNAWAN            41.37N 89.87W
06/20/2011  M2.50 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0707 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W CAMBRIDGE           41.30N 90.20W
06/20/2011  M1.45 INCH       HENRY              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT STORM TOTAL.

0829 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW HENNEPIN           41.29N 89.37W
06/20/2011  M4.50 INCH       BUREAU             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

0850 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E WHAT CHEER          41.41N 92.28W
06/20/2011  M1.66 INCH       KEOKUK             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY SMALL CREEKS
            FLOODING.

0858 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE KEOSAUQUA         40.72N 91.92W
06/20/2011  M4.20 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
06/20/2011  M1.30 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FROM 6 TO 9 AM.

0931 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW BONAPARTE         40.68N 91.85W
06/20/2011                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.60 INCHES OF RAIN FOR STORM TOTAL. GRAVEL ROADS WASHING
            OUT. AT FARMINGTON WATER IS ACROSS THE ROADS AND DITCHES
            AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING HIGH.

&&

TOMO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1116 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W KAHOKA              40.42N 91.83W
06/20/2011                   CLARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLE DROVE INTO FLOODED GRAVEL ROAD. WOMAN AND
            DAUGHTER WERE RESCUED.

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SOUTH GORIN             40.36N 92.02W
06/20/2011                   SCOTLAND           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER SEVERAL GRAVEL ROADS.

&&

TOMO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E BONAPARTE           40.69N 91.71W
06/20/2011  M2.60 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24HR AMOUNT.

&&

TOMO