Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHORTER DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...OR MCC
WITH LOTS OF RAIN...SOME SEVERE.  NOWCAST TOOLS SUGGEST LOTS OF
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS. CHALLENGE
WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INTERACTION WITH MORE CONVECTION IN
NE/KS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS IS
EVEN A BIT STRONGER THAN SOLUTIONS SHOW WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER DIGGING
OF THIS UPPER LOW INTO PLAINS NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS SUPPORTS DYNAMIC
CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD COOL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY...NORTH SECTIONS CONCEPTUALLY BASED ON CONVECTION AND TRENDS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 80S WITH SOME RISK IF
MORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FROM WEST AND CLOUDS FOR UPPER 70S FOR DAY
SHIFT TO MONITOR. EVEN CENTRAL SECTIONS MAY HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS.  LOCAL TECHNIQUES DO
SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION TO
END BY MID DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HENCE THE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SOUTH 1/3. PLAN TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL
18Z SINCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ATTM.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE AND MOVE INTO AREA LATE EVENING
AGAIN AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAR NW
SECTIONS.  PROBLEM WILL BE OUR EXISTING ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
IMPACT THIS NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION.  LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN MAIN RISK WITH PW/S 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.  HIGH DEWPOINTS TO
KEEP MOST MINS IN THE LOWER 70S.   ..NICHOLS..

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
...WARM AND HUMID WITH STORMS INTO TUESDAY...NEAR RECORD COOL HIGHS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS
THE LOCATION OF SEVERAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AGAIN MARGINALLY HANDLED.
BETTER WITH DYNAMIC UPPER LOW IN SW CONUS BUT EVIDENCE PER SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE STILL TOO TEPID ON
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. RESULT COULD BE MORE CONVECTION IMPACTING
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF SYSTEM INTO MID WEEK.  WENT WITH A 60/40 BLEND
OF 80KM NAM-WRF AND GFS INTO DAY 3.  THEN A 50/50 BLEND OF HI-RES
ECMWF AND GFS.

TUESDAY...LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WITH SURFACE FRONT.  THIS AGAIN IS DUE TO HOW CONVECTION IMPACTS
EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING OUT OF UPPER LOW.  LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ARE MARGINAL ATTM BUT IN INTENSE CONVECTION OCCURS ON
SOUTH END OF SYSTEM TONIGHT THEN THIS COULD ROTATE NORTH AND PRODUCE
A TORNADO RISK THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY RECONSIDERED.  KEPT 40
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHS LOWER 80S NW TO UPPER 80S SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EVENING STORMS WITH AGAIN SOME RISK OF
SEVERE IF UPPER ENERGY DOESN/T SHEAR.  MINS MID TO UPPER 60S AS WEST
WINDS AND COOLING TO ARRIVE LATE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TURNING COOLER AND CLOUDY WITH NEAR RECORD
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED BOTH DAYS.  MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE
60S FOR HIGHS WITH SOME SUGGESTION LOW TO MID 60S NORTH SECTIONS FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAINSHOWERS IN
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RISK OF PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND EVEN FOG
IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. MINS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH MODERATE WINDS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DAMP FOR LATE JUNE.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...CLEARING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
70S APPROACHING NEAR 80F ON SUNDAY. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
MODERATE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUGGEST SOME POPCORN SHOWERS OR STORM MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST RISK SW NEAR WARM FRONT
AND NEXT SYSTEM...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
MCS ACRS EASTERN IA WITH ANOTHER FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
IA. BOTH MAY MERGE AND FORM A LARGE MCC. TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST MCS WL BRING 1-2KFT CIGS AND POSSIBLY 1-2SM WITH TSRA THROUGH
12Z. AFT 12Z/20 3-5SM RA OR POSSIBLY 6SM RA WITH VCTS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR 15Z-18Z. POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSRA DVLPMT 20Z-23Z
SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS
AFT 00Z/21. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH VFR/MVFR VSBYS. POTENTIAL
THERE FOR 2SM AND 2KFT CIGS WITH TSRA AFT 00Z/21.   ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

NICHOLS/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1033 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201445-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1033 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
HOWEVER WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA... WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE GROUND IN THESE AREAS IS SATURATED
AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF AND POSE
A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 O

SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALSO...ANY
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH WOULD BE VERY MUCH
APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
151 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-076-077-200730-
BENTON-CEDAR-IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON-
151 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL..

AT 145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
CONROY TO WASHINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHMOND AND KALONA AROUND 155 AM CDT...
  RIVERSIDE...OXFORD AND AMANA AROUND 205 AM CDT...
  TIFFIN...HILLS AND WALFORD AROUND 210 AM CDT...
  UNIVERSITY OF IOWA AND UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS AROUND 215 AM CDT...

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4194 9175 4162 9126 4120 9181 4158 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 225DEG 34KT 4178 9209 4132 9164

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ078-088-089-099-ILZ024>026-034-035-MOZ010-200900-
CLARK-DES
MOINES-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY-LEE-LOUISA-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN-
245 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 240 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NEW LONDON TO 19 MILES WEST OF WAYLAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW LONDON AND LOWELL AROUND 250 AM CDT...
  WEST POINT AND FRANKLIN AROUND 255 AM CDT...
  MEDIAPOLIS...DANVILLE...NEW BOSTON AND WAYLAND AROUND 300 AM CDT...
  MIDDLETOWN AND DENMARK AROUND 305 AM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4022 9151 4024 9151 4025 9170 4110 9134
      4108 9043 4027 9045 4028 9090 4022 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 271DEG 38KT 4101 9140 4033 9187

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAZ068-ILZ009-015-016-200845-
HENRY-ROCK ISLAND-SCOTT-WHITESIDE-
302 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM

AT 258 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILAN...OR NEAR MOLINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EAST MOLINE AND RIVERDALE AROUND 310 AM CDT...
  SILVIS AND HAMPTON AROUND 315 AM CDT...
  COLONA AROUND 320 AM CDT...
  CLEVELAND AND RAPIDS CITY AROUND 325 AM CDT...
  OSBORN AROUND 330 AM CDT...

WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4172 9054 4158 9010 4132 9054 4145 9080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 247DEG 25KT 4145 9051

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