Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. RAIN WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS A
CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD. LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND SHOWERY
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
00Z NAM AND 01Z RUC SHOW A PERSISTENT NORTH/SOUTH RIBBON OF 850 MB
THETA-E CONVERGENCE CONTINUING RIGHT UP THE SUSQ MAINSTEM...AND
FLUCTUATING EAST/WEST A BIT UNDER THE QUASI STNRY RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 70-80 KT JET ACROSS THE REGION.

COMPACT VORT LOBES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE SAME
AREA...WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SPRIRALING REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS
ONCE TROPICAL STORM LEE /CENTERED NEAR KCMH THIS EVENING/.

THIS SCENARIO IS ABOUT AS BAD AS IT GETS IN THE FLOOD/FLASH
FLOODING DEPT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWE SUSQ VALLEY
HAVE ALREADY SEEN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL /OVER THE PAST 3-4 DAYS/
BETWEEN 7 AND 11 INCHES. OPTED TO INCLUDE THE RARE...FLASH
FLOOD EMERGENCY WORDING IN OUR FFWS.

THE NEARLY STATIONARY...EAST-WEST SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS FAR SERN PENN...AND THE 925 MB FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
KIPT...ENE TO KAVP WILL LEND ADDITIONAL HELP TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IN THIS REGION. PWAT VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE EXCESSIVELY
HIGH AND RIGHT AROUND 2.25 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR
OVERNIGHT ALONG...AND JUST TO THE WEST THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER RATES /OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR/
WILL OCCUR IN TRAINING TSRA ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY..AND
OCCASIONALLY INTO THE MID SUSQ REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE 925 MB
FRONT.

THIS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE ALREADY SERIOUS AND EXTENSIVE FLOODING
AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING IN THAT AREA. THE EXTENT OF FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS...COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS/LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR EASTERN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN/BECOME LESS ORGANIZED /AND LESS OF AN
IMPACT/ AFTER ABOUT 15Z ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE WATER IN CREEKS AND RIVERS AS IT
ROUTES DOWNSTREAM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHOWERY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE MODELS
HINT AT EASTERN AREAS NOT SEEING MUCH...THERE STILL COULD BE A
SHOWER. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO BE ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TS LEE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
LIFT OUT...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH DAY TO DAY CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TUE
INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

WHILE TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL REMAINS HARD TO SEE A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR DRY
WEATHER WILL BE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCLEMENT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BANDS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSS NEAR KLNS-KMDT. SCT SHOWERS LIKELY
IN THE WEST TONIGHT.

HIGHEST PROB OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE EAST THU...AS CHANCES AGAIN
RETURN TO THE WEST. CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...WITH
LOCALLY WORSE CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR.
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR.
MON...VFR/MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RNFL IS EXPECTED
NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
ADDITONAL RAINFALL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ARE PSBL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. SIGNIFICANT AREAL AND RIVER/STREAM FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF PENN FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. REFER TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER'S
HOMEPAGE MAP OF CLICKABLE STREAM/RIVER POINTS FOR THE LATEST ON
THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR /AND IN SOME CASES
RECORD/ FLOODING. THIS INFO CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ERH/MARFC

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-
026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
949 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ006-012-018-019-026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-090200-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
949 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-025-033>035-090200-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
FULTON-
949 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ058-080015-
SCHUYLKILL PA-
746 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLKILL
COUNTY...

AT 740 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BERNVILLE...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...WHICH COULD
EASILY DOWN TREES DUE TO THE WET GROUND. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT SUMMIT STATION...AUBURN
AND DEER LAKE.

LAT...LON 4067 7589 4063 7599 4058 7600 4057 7601
      4058 7605 4053 7617 4051 7626 4075 7622
      4070 7588

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
832 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ058-059-066-080100-
LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
832 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL...
EAST CENTRAL LEBANON AND EASTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 825 PM EDT...A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED FROM POTTSVILLE TO 28 MILES SOUTH OF WILLOW STREET...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH COULD
EASILY KNOCK TREES DOWN DUE TO THE VERY WET GROUND. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LAT...LON 3976 7627 4041 7631 4051 7629 4051 7631
      4080 7633 4086 7605 4058 7600 4051 7629
      4042 7630 4018 7593 4004 7593 3996 7599
      3987 7598 3977 7606 3972 7610 3972 7624

FORECASTER:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

PAZ052-057>059-080500-
DAUPHIN PA-LEBANON PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
1233 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DAUPHIN...
NORTHWESTERN LEBANON...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTHUMBERLAND AND WEST CENTRAL
SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...

AT 1229 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PENN NATIONAL
RACEWAY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT DEHART
DAM...LYKENS AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

SLIGHT ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THESE STORMS. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND 86.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
209...ROUTE 422.

LAT...LON 4074 7678 4071 7649 4029 7659 4031 7682

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL