Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
352 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...SOME CONTAINING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WINDY...COOLER...AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY AND WILL
LAST INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MAY
BECOME STATIONARY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BKN STRATO CU...BASED MAINLY BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4.5 KFT AGL...COVERED
THE ENTIRE CWA AT 1830Z. ML CAPE ARE INCREASINGLY TWD 1000 J/KG ATTM
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS /AND 1000-1500 JOULES ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY/...AND THE DEEPENING VERTICAL MIXING IS TRANSPORTING
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS TO THE SFC.

SLIGHT STREAMLINE DIVERGENCE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER /AND SOME
MODERATION TO THE MID LEVEL...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES/ HAS HELPED TO
MINIMIZE DEEP CONVECTION SO FAR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM KUNV AND POINTS NE.

PRECIP CHCS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A AXIS
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SLIDES GRADUALLY
EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HPCS MDT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN EXCEEDING THE RELATIVELY LOW...1-3
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COVERS ALL BUT THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION OF OUR CWA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BEST SUPPORT FOR ROTATING SVR TSRA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE 0-1KM EHI
VALUES WILL BE HOLDING...OR RAMPING BACK UP IN THE RANGE OF
2-3M2/S2. THE NW MTNS WILL SEE INCREASING LAYERED CLOUDS...LIKELY
HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

JUST GOT OFF THE LAND-LINE WITH SPC...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY.

SVR CONVECTION WILL BE EVOLVING TO MORE OF A TRAINING TSRA/HVY
RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED 2 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY BY
12Z THU...WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL
OCCUR. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. EVENING OR MID SHIFT MAY
DECIDE TO EXPAND THIS WATCH SE IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEARLY MID-SUMMERLIKE...MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT...988 MB LOW WILL RACE NE ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE...AND THE
SWRN PENINSULA OF ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PENN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. STRONG...LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY HELP TO GENERATE STRONG WSW WINDS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND NW PLATEAU BEGINNING 11-13Z THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS
POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
AND SERN PENN...WHILE BKN-OVC STRATO CU WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCTD
-SHRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MAXS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.  LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. GEFS
SHOWS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND CHANCE POPS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDITIONS...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH-BASED STRATO
CU WERE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AT 1930Z.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST TO BEGIN ACROSS NWRN PENN...AS THEY
ADVECT QUICKLY TO THE NE FROM THE OHIO/PA BORDER. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF PENN THIS EVENING.

VFR WILL PREDOMINATE...THOUGH AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A BIG TICKET ITEM AFFECTING
TAKEOFF AND FAP OVERNIGHT BEGINNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-06Z. LLWS
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CFRONT THURSDAY MORNING OVER
CENTRAL AND WRN PENN...BUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z IN THE KMDT TO
KLNS AREAS.

WE SWAP THE LLWS FOR DEEP MECHANICAL MIXING AND POSS STRONG/GUSTY
WSW SFC WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND
WRN PENN. SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY
THURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KJST TO KBFD...WHERE
THE COOLER/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MTNS WILL FORM MVFR TO IFR
BKN-OVC CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT/FRI...SCTD MVFR CIGS EARLY..OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SUN...VFR WITH INCREASED CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
MON...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN LIKELY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...AND ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
HIGH PWAT AXIS OF 1.5-2 INCHES SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS PENN.

LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD WILL
OCCUR. &&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-
046-049>053-056.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ004-005-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...KREKELER
AVIATION...LAMBERT
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-
281930-
POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
317 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 236 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-063>066-281930-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
317 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 236 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-281930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-
317 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 236 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ010-011-017-272130-
CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-
442 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMERON...EASTERN ELK
AND NORTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 438 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TROUTVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR TREASURE LAKE AROUND 450 PM...PENFIELD AROUND
500 PM...FORCE AROUND 510 PM...ST. MARYS AROUND 520 PM AND EMPORIUM
AROUND 530 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 113.

LAT...LON 4144 7799 4092 7872 4095 7881 4113 7881
      4121 7876 4121 7872 4122 7872 4123 7873
      4123 7874 4158 7849

FORECASTER: KREKELER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ004-005-010-272130-
ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
449 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELK...MCKEAN AND WARREN
COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF ELK...MCKEAN AND
WARREN COUNTIES AT 442 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD 46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 66...STATE
ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255...STATE ROAD 446.

LAT...LON 4200 7821 4130 7856 4144 7907 4146 7906
      4145 7897 4162 7897 4163 7962 4200 7961

FORECASTER: GARTNER/KOZAR