Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS State College, PA

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, York County, PA

109 
WGUS61 KCTP 280753
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...

PAZ004-005-010-280900-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-
353 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS PASSED. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHTER...AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ANYMORE. 

$$

PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-281200-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
353 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CAMERON...CLEARFIELD... 
  COLUMBIA...FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA... 
  MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHERN CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON... 
  NORTHERN LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...POTTER...SNYDER...
   SOMERSET...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN 
  LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...TIOGA AND UNION. 

* UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
  PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNINGS...THEN SCATTERED
  SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THESE SHOWERS
  LATER IN THE DAY WILL CONTAIN GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN...THE HEAVY
  RAIN FROM LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED THE STREAMS
  HIGHER. LARGER RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES INTO THE
  DAY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVERS
  NORTH BRANCH EXPECTED TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF
  THIS WEEK.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DANGELO

789 
WGUS61 KCTP 280854
FFACTP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
454 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...

PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>027-033>035-045-281000-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
FULTON-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
454 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST.
STREAMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

$$

PAZ057>059-063>065-281400-
/O.EXB.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
454 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF CENTRAL 
  PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ADAMS... 
  CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...LEBANON...SCHUYLKILL AND YORK. 

* UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
  PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
  SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THESE SHOWERS
  LATER IN THE DAY WILL CONTAIN GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN...THE HEAVY
  RAIN FROM LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED THE STREAMS
  HIGHER. LARGER RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES INTO THE
  DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER NORTH AND
  WEST BRANCHES EXPECTED TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF
  THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

PAZ028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056-281400-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-
454 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...COLUMBIA...FRANKLIN...JUNIATA...MONTOUR...NORTHERN 
  LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...SNYDER...SOUTHERN 
  LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...TIOGA AND UNION. 

* UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
  PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
  SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE THESE SHOWERS
  LATER IN THE DAY WILL CONTAIN GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN...THE HEAVY
  RAIN FROM LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED THE STREAMS
  HIGHER. LARGER RIVERS WILL ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES INTO THE
  DAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER NORTH AND
  WEST BRANCHES EXPECTED TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF
  THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

954 
WGUS61 KCTP 281036
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
636 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING...

PAZ028-036-037-041-042-046-049-050-281145-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
636 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE. 

$$

PAZ051>053-056>059-063>065-281400-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-110428T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
636 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...LEBANON... 
  MONTOUR...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...SCHUYLKILL AND YORK. 

* UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
  ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
  THE THREAT FOR FLOODING END EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGER RIVERS
  WILL ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES TODAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
  THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER NORTH AND WEST BRANCHES EXPECTED TO SEE
  MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DANGELO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
826 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WEATHER/CLOUD AND
TEMP GRIDS FOR THIS MID MORNING UPDATE.

PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND BKN-OVC SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
HOLES DEVELOP VIA VERTICAL MIXING. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE AND HELP TO RAMP UP TEMPS AND ML CAPES
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

EXPECT JUST A FEW ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN THE EAST PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS OVER LWX/S AREA AND THE ADDITION OF GRADUAL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT AIR. ALMOST IMPERCEPTIBLE PVA IN THE
SE WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT JUST BARELY...BUT THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO SCT --SHRA THERE THIS AM.
THE SCENARIO FOR THE MORNING LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE SETUP TUES
AM...NEARLY OVERCAST BUT NOT REALLY LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS LACK OF THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW SOLAR HEATING
TO WORK ON THE GOOD DEWPOINTS AND DROP STABILITY OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. AGAIN...THE ELEVATED SURFACES WILL HELP TO
MAKE A FOCUS FOR THE INITIAL CONGESTION/CONVECTION LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
2 TO 3 STANDARD-DEVIATION ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FROPA WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN PA THIS
AFTN...AND WILL PROBABLY KICK OFF OR MAKE MORE-WIDESPREAD ANY ON-
GOING CONVECTION. A LOOK AT THE HODOGRAPHS FROM THE NAM AND GFS
FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING ARE EYE-POPPING. AT UNV...A FANTASTIC CURVE
WITH 50KTS STORM MOTION TO THE NE. HELICITY IN THE 200-400 RANGE
AND CAPE AROUND 1000. THESE VALUES ARE ENOUGH TO PROMPT A SLIGHT
RISK FROM SPC AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR A MOD RISK...BUT
NOT YET...AS FOCUS MECHS TOUGH TO FIND. HIGHER CAPES WITH THE
HIGHER MSTR TO THE SOUTH...BUT MTS AND THE APPCH OF THE TROUGH
WILL KEEP BEST CHCS FOR THE TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTS THIS
AFTN. THE STORM MOTIONS WOULD RIDE THEM UP INTO THE NRN AND NERN
MTS AGAIN. THUS...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN - ESP IN THE PLACES
WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THESE PAST FEW DAYS.
SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTN AND INTO
THURSDAY EVEN...BUT COORD WITH SURR OFFICES AND ONLY A LOW PROB OF
1 OR 2 INCH RAINFALL FROM THE 21Z SREFS TALKED ME DOWN. COULD
EASILY SEE ONE BEING POSTED LATER TODAY AS CONVECTION TIPS IT/S
HAND. SEE MORE HYDRO TALK IN THE HYDRO SECTION. TEMPS VERY MUCH
ABOVE NORMALS...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN PRECLUDE ANY
RECORDS FROM BEING SET.

THE NEXT PROBLEM IS THE FROPA. SINGLE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WRN
GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST IS ALREADY GETTING MUDDIED BY A STRONG
WAVE ROLLING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THUS...SOME WOBBLE TO THE
SOUTH THEN EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SHORTER WAVE MOVES POLEWARD ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LONGER-WAVE FEATURE. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN WAVE WILL TAKE OVER TODAY...BUT A SECOND
EVEN STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER-LOW CENTER
FINALLY WRAPS INTO THE OTHER ENERGY AND GOES EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE
RESULTANT DEEPENING WILL RESULT IN TREMENDOUSLY DEEP FAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE 0-10KM BULK SHEAR OF 90 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND
PRECEDING 60+KT LLJET WILL GIVE AMPLE SUPPORT TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. A SOMEWHAT
RARE OVERNIGHT SEVERE EPISODE FOR PA IS ALMOST LIKELY. TEMPS WILL
STAY VERY MILD WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG SRLY WINDS.

THE FRONT SEEMS TO PASS THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT/S
RUNS DID AND MORE LIKE WHAT THE NAM HAD PAINTED THEN. EXPECT
SHRA/TSRA TO BE ON-GOING OVERHEAD AS THE DAY BEGINS ON THURSDAY.
EVERYTHING SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LITTLE
PRECIP LEFT BY 2 PM IN THE SERN COS. AS THE COLD AIR INVADES FM
THE WEST...TEMPS WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY ALL DAY IN THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THE UPSLOPE IN THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD. THE LEADING H5 TROUGH IS
FCST TO DEPART FROM NERN STATES BY SATURDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING EWD FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE MARGINALLY
COLD AIR ALOFT/BELOW NORMAL H7 HEIGHTS AND CYC/NWLY FLOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SUGGESTS ISOLD TO SCT
INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS ON FRI /GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR/.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY /LOW 50S NW TO LOW 60S SE/. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
FAIR/DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY...AS A NARROW HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EWD OVR CENTRAL PA.

ANOTHER TROUGH REACHING THE WRN STATES LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD WILL MAKE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH
THIS SYSTEM INVOLVE TIMING AND DEPTH/AMPLITUDE...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND F120...WITH THE ECMWF/ECENS BECOMING SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS/GEFS. THE FAST GFS/SLOW ECMWF SOLN SPREAD
IS QUITE TYPICAL AT THESE RANGES. THE 26/12 ECMWF IS CONSISTENT
WITH ITS PAST 2-3 RUNS...CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW THAT WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH. CLIMATOLOGY IS IN
THE FAVOR OF A SLOWER/CUTOFF SOLUTION...AS THIS IS NOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR CLOSED LOW FORMATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

OVER THE PAST DAY THE RELATIVE SPREAD HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH
WITH THE PRIMARY OCCLD LOW PRES SYSTEM CROSSING THE NRN TIER
CONUS...WITH TRAILING FRONTS PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE GRT LKS INTO
THE UPPER OH VLY SUN-MON. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOMEWHAT LESS SOUTHWESTWARD ELONGATION WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH
VERSUS THE ECMWF AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...THOUGH THE GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED A BIT FROM 24 HRS AGO. ALTHOUGH UKMET/CMC RUNS
ALSO SHOW SOME HINTS TOWARD THE GFS IDEA...FAST BIASES AND A
SLOWER DOWNSTREAM PREFERENCE FAVOR LEANING SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT
THIS TIME. THIS COULD KEEP COOL AIR WEDGED IN OVR THE REGION WITH
DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT SHIFTING NEWD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON MON/DY6. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
ORIENTATION/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR NOW...SUN-MON LOOK TO BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RNFL..WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING E OF PA BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF SOLN VERIFIES...THE PATTERN WILL STAY VERY
UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STORMS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUE...THEN I EXPECTED...BUT
MDT AREA ONLY HAD A TRACE OF RAIN. THUS THE IDEA THAT THE
ACTION WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TO THE W AND N WAS CORRECT.
VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AIDED THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...UNLIKE MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...MAIN PROBLEM EARLY ON WILL BE FOG AND LOWER CLDS
SE. THINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.

ANYWAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS STILL
HINT AT A WAVE ON THE FRONT WED NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. BY LATE WED NIGHT...EARLY THU...EXPECT SE AREAS TO
SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THU AFT.
DRY SLOT SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LATER
ON THU.

FOR FRIDAY...A COOL...GUSTY NW FLOW...WOULD EXPECT SOME
SC AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

FOR SAT...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS LATER ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...AM TSRA IMPACTS LIKELY...IMPROVING AS THE DAY GOES
ON TO VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR WITH INCREASED CHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY MAINSTEM POINTS WILL BE NEARING FLOOD STAGES - WITH A FEW
ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING OVER FS TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS GETTING HIGHER - HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE TIME BEING...AND EXAMINE THE FULL 12Z MODEL
RUN AND FCST PACKAGE FROM THE RFCS BEFORE HOISTING THE FLAGS. SEE
RVSCTP AND RVDCTP FOR LATEST FORECASTS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN IN THE NRN
MTS AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. WITHOUT A GOOD/SPECIFIC
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING...WILL LET THE WHITES OF IT/S EYES
SHOW BEFORE POSTING ANY FLOOD WATCHES. BETTER FOCUS ALONG/JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE 1+ INCH RAINS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
FROM W-E TONIGHT/THURSDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT/DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-280615-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
214 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD
CAUSED LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1010 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND GST     JOHNSTOWN AIRPORT       40.32N  78.83W
04/26/2011  M61 MPH          CAMBRIA            PA   ASOS

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOHNSTOWN               40.33N  78.92W
04/26/2011                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON FRANKSTOWN RD

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EBENSBURG               40.49N  78.73W
04/26/2011                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN SE OF EBENSBURG IN CAMBRIA AND
            CROYLE TOWNSHIPS.

0440 PM     HAIL             TYRONE                  40.68N  78.25W
04/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       BLAIR              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHERN CAMBRIA        40.67N  78.78W
04/26/2011                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN SUSQUEHANNA TWP.

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M2.00 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SILVER DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GROUND COVERED IN HAIL

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS WINDOWS BROKEN

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN. WOMAN TRAPPED IN CAR SURROUNDED
            BY LIVE WIRES

0625 PM     HAIL             3 E LOCK HAVEN          41.14N  77.40W
04/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            PA   PUBLIC

            CARS DAMAGED ON RTE 220

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALTOONA AIRPORT         40.30N  78.32W
04/26/2011  M60 MPH          BLAIR              PA   ASOS

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISTOWN               40.60N  77.57W
04/26/2011                   MIFFLIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SILO BLOWN OVER. BARN AND
            TRACTOR TRAILER DAMAGED.

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIFFLINBURG             40.92N  77.05W
04/26/2011                   UNION              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN. POWER OUT IN THE TOWN

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTONVILLE         41.05N  76.68W
04/26/2011                   MONTOUR            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

1038 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUSHORE                 41.53N  76.40W
04/26/2011                   SULLIVAN           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW FREDERICKSBURG    40.46N  76.44W
04/26/2011                   LEBANON            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON MTN DR NR
            FOREST DR AND N. MECHANIC ST

0103 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DUSHORE                 41.53N  76.40W
04/27/2011                   SULLIVAN           PA   PUBLIC

            2 FEET OF WATER IN TOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100026 CTP1100027 CTP1100029 CTP1100028 CTP1100030
CTP1100031 CTP1100032 CTP1100034 CTP1100035 CTP1100036 CTP1100033
CTP1100042 CTP1100037 CTP1100038 CTP1100039 CTP1100041 CTP1100043
CTP1100040

STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND GST     JOHNSTOWN AIRPORT       40.32N  78.83W
04/26/2011  M61 MPH          CAMBRIA            PA   ASOS

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOHNSTOWN               40.33N  78.92W
04/26/2011                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON FRANKSTOWN RD

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EBENSBURG               40.49N  78.73W
04/26/2011                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN SE OF EBENSBURG IN CAMBRIA AND
            CROYLE TOWNSHIPS.

0440 PM     HAIL             TYRONE                  40.68N  78.25W
04/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       BLAIR              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHERN CAMBRIA        40.67N  78.78W
04/26/2011                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN SUSQUEHANNA TWP.

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M2.00 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SILVER DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GROUND COVERED IN HAIL

0615 PM     HAIL             LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS WINDOWS BROKEN

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCK HAVEN              41.14N  77.45W
04/26/2011                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN. WOMAN TRAPPED IN CAR SURROUNDED
            BY LIVE WIRES

0625 PM     HAIL             3 E LOCK HAVEN          41.14N  77.40W
04/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            PA   PUBLIC

            CARS DAMAGED ON RTE 220

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOOLRICH                41.19N  77.38W
04/26/2011                   CLINTON            PA   PUBLIC

            6-8 LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND POWER OUTAGES

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALTOONA AIRPORT         40.30N  78.32W
04/26/2011  M60 MPH          BLAIR              PA   ASOS

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISTOWN               40.60N  77.57W
04/26/2011                   MIFFLIN            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SILO BLOWN OVER. BARN AND
            TRACTOR TRAILER DAMAGED.

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIFFLINBURG             40.92N  77.05W
04/26/2011                   UNION              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN. POWER OUT IN THE TOWN

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTONVILLE         41.05N  76.68W
04/26/2011                   MONTOUR            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUSHORE                 41.53N  76.40W
04/26/2011                   SULLIVAN           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED. SEVERAL HOUSES DAMAGED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER AND TWO WATER RESCUES IN CHERRY AND COLLEY
            TWPS. GERMAN ST BRIDGE SR 220 DAMAGED FROM FLOOD WATERS.
            ABOUT 30 DUSHORE RESIDENTS DISPLACED DUE TO FLOODING IN
            DOWNTOWN DUSHORE.

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW FREDERICKSBURG    40.46N  76.44W
04/26/2011                   LEBANON            PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON MTN DR NR
            FOREST DR AND N. MECHANIC ST

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100026 CTP1100027 CTP1100029 CTP1100028 CTP1100030
CTP1100031 CTP1100032 CTP1100034 CTP1100035 CTP1100036 CTP1100033
CTP1100044 CTP1100042 CTP1100037 CTP1100038 CTP1100039 CTP1100041
CTP1100043

STEINBUGL