Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
734 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11
PM AND TO ADD CUSTER...FALLON...CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES.
REMOVED YELLOWSTONE AND MUSSELSHELL. LINE OF CONVECTION IS
PUSHING INTO EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SEE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...PULLING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THIS SET UP SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL THAT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. STARTING TO SEE MID LEVEL
WINDS BEING DUCTED DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN ROSEBUD
COUNTY HELPING TO BOW OUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS WILL ALSO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FURTHER HELPING TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL STRONG
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ZONES. THREAT WITH STORMS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE STRONG WIND BASED THAN HAIL BASED...BUT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE MCS DEVELOPS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO POPS/WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS. BY MID EVENING A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN CREATING A POTENTIALLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS TO
THOSE AREAS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/092 060/092 064/097 064/098 064/097 063/091 061/090
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 051/091 052/095 052/095 055/092 053/088 049/089
    32/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/093 060/095 062/098 063/099 062/101 061/091 059/092
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/094 064/094 065/099 066/100 066/098 063/091 061/091
    52/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 064/093 062/092 065/099 067/099 065/096 064/090 061/088
    52/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 063/091 064/093 064/097 066/098 064/096 067/091 061/090
    52/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 058/092 058/092 060/096 060/096 060/097 059/089 057/090
    21/U    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
749 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-160200-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
749 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
733 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ031-032-150230-
CUSTER MT-NORTHERN ROSEBUD MT-
733 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROSEBUD AND
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
ROSEBUD AND NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY BETWEEN 730 PM AND 830 PM
MDT. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL AS THESE STORMS
PASS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO REACH MILES CITY BETWEEN 800 PM AND 830
PM MDT. OTHER TOWNS WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ANGELA...ROCK SPRINGS AND HATHAWAY.

LAT...LON 4684 10581 4684 10562 4676 10561 4674 10556
      4667 10556 4666 10549 4661 10548 4658 10543
      4657 10538 4615 10537 4616 10638 4686 10639
      4687 10583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 191DEG 28KT 4654 10619

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
747 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ030-035-057-150215-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-TREASURE MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
747 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BIG HORN...EASTERN
YELLOWSTONE AND TREASURE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 745 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF CUSTER...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
HARDIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CUSTER AROUND 805 PM MDT.
BIGHORN AROUND 815 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4648 10731 4634 10709 4606 10696 4585 10758
      4600 10779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 230DEG 23KT 4598 10756