Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
734 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11
PM AND TO ADD CUSTER...FALLON...CARTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES.
REMOVED YELLOWSTONE AND MUSSELSHELL. LINE OF CONVECTION IS
PUSHING INTO EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SEE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...PULLING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THIS SET UP SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL THAT CURRENTLY SITS FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY. STARTING TO SEE MID LEVEL
WINDS BEING DUCTED DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN ROSEBUD
COUNTY HELPING TO BOW OUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS WILL ALSO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FURTHER HELPING TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL STRONG
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ZONES. THREAT WITH STORMS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE STRONG WIND BASED THAN HAIL BASED...BUT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE MCS DEVELOPS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO POPS/WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS. BY MID EVENING A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN CREATING A POTENTIALLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS TO
THOSE AREAS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/092 060/092 064/097 064/098 064/097 063/091 061/090
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 051/091 052/095 052/095 055/092 053/088 049/089
    32/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/093 060/095 062/098 063/099 062/101 061/091 059/092
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/094 064/094 065/099 066/100 066/098 063/091 061/091
    52/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 064/093 062/092 065/099 067/099 065/096 064/090 061/088
    52/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 063/091 064/093 064/097 066/098 064/096 067/091 061/090
    52/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 058/092 058/092 060/096 060/096 060/097 059/089 057/090
    21/U    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
749 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-160200-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
749 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
747 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ030-035-057-150215-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-TREASURE MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
747 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BIG HORN...EASTERN
YELLOWSTONE AND TREASURE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 745 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF CUSTER...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
HARDIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CUSTER AROUND 805 PM MDT.
BIGHORN AROUND 815 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4648 10731 4634 10709 4606 10696 4585 10758
      4600 10779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 230DEG 23KT 4598 10756

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
809 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             1 SSE COLSTRIP          45.88N 106.62W
07/14/2011  M1.75 INCH       ROSEBUD            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AARONG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
819 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ030-031-057-150300-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-NORTHERN ROSEBUD MT-TREASURE MT-
819 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ROSEBUD...EXTREME
NORTHERN BIG HORN AND EASTERN TREASURE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

AT 817 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HYSHAM TO 24 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CUSTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SANDERS AROUND 830 PM MDT.
VANANDA AROUND 840 PM MDT.
FORSYTH AROUND 900 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4664 10663 4601 10656 4584 10719 4637 10728
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 226DEG 31KT 4631 10720 4594 10712

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ031-057-150400-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-NORTHERN ROSEBUD MT-
903 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ROSEBUD AND NORTHEASTERN
BIG HORN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

AT 859 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORSYTH TO 14
MILES NORTH OF BUSBY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ROSEBUD AND COLSTRIP BY 930 PM MDT.
HATHAWAY BY 1000 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4635 10617 4572 10624 4567 10705 4587 10699
      4587 10694 4602 10694 4621 10688
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 258DEG 20KT 4619 10672 4573 10695

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             10 WNW COLSTRIP         45.97N 106.81W
07/14/2011  E1.75 INCH       ROSEBUD            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RNL

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