Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
202 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THE BIG STORY TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH GFS AND EC ARE NOT DOING MUCH...THE NAM KEEPS BRINGING
WAVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS AND PRECIP. HIGH CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG JET IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. COMBINE THESE WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION...AND WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS ALSO INDICATED...SO WEATHER IS LOOKING A BIT LESS
LIKELY. STORMS DO LOOK LIKE THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE IF THEY DO
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT GREAT...SO HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT DID RAISE POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GILSTAD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS. BY MID EVENING A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN CREATING A POTENTIALLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS TO
THOSE AREAS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/092 060/092 064/097 064/098 064/097 063/091 061/090
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 051/091 052/095 052/095 055/092 053/088 049/089
    22/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/093 060/095 062/098 063/099 062/101 061/091 059/092
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/094 064/094 065/099 066/100 066/098 063/091 061/091
    52/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 064/093 062/092 065/099 067/099 065/096 064/090 061/088
    52/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 063/091 064/093 064/097 066/098 064/096 067/091 061/090
    52/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 058/092 058/092 060/096 060/096 060/097 059/089 057/090
    21/U    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-151630-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE...SO PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF YOU ARE
PLANNING ON PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

EXPECT WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE GRADUALLY. NONETHELESS...RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
FAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AND CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
NEAR ANY WATERWAY UNTIL LEVELS SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
344 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ034-039-056-142215-
EASTERN CARBON MT-NORTHERN STILLWATER MT-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS MT-
344 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARBON AND EASTERN
STILLWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 339 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS TO BRIDGER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT BRIDGER...FROMBERG...JOLIET...ROCKVALE...
SILESIA...PARK CITY AND EDGAR THROUGH 415 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4524 10917 4557 10932 4570 10891 4566 10889
      4559 10879 4556 10880 4556 10877 4553 10876
      4552 10874 4544 10868 4524 10870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 258DEG 19KT 4555 10915 4526 10895

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
407 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ035-038-057-142300-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-SOUTHERN BIG HORN MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
407 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BIG HORN AND SOUTHERN
YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 400 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH...OR 31 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ST. XAVIER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 477 AND 489.

THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF BILLINGS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4585 10793 4560 10746 4539 10783 4532 10814
      4542 10837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 221DEG 18KT 4542 10816

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
417 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ039-056-142315-
EASTERN CARBON MT-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS MT-
417 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM MDT...

AT 412 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF RED LODGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRIDGER...FROMBERG...JOLIET...
EAST BRIDGER AND EDGAR.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 99.

THIS INCLUDES MONTANA HIGHWAY 310 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22 AND 40.

THIS INCLUDES MONTANA STATE HIGHWAY 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND
21.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4519 10927 4555 10899 4540 10868 4535 10870
      4517 10900 4513 10915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 217DEG 18KT 4520 10913

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
431 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 S LAUREL              45.65N 108.77W
07/14/2011  E1.75 INCH       YELLOWSTONE        MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCATION ESTIMATED. PASSED ON FROM BILLINGS DISPATCH.
            DRIVER WAS ON HWY 212 SOUTH OF LAUREL.

&&

RNL

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