Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
202 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO FORECAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THE BIG STORY TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH GFS AND EC ARE NOT DOING MUCH...THE NAM KEEPS BRINGING
WAVES THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS AND PRECIP. HIGH CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG JET IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. COMBINE THESE WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION...AND WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THAT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS ALSO INDICATED...SO WEATHER IS LOOKING A BIT LESS
LIKELY. STORMS DO LOOK LIKE THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE IF THEY DO
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE STILL NOT GREAT...SO HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT DID RAISE POPS ACROSS THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GILSTAD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS. BY MID EVENING A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY DEVELOP EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN CREATING A POTENTIALLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CONDITIONS TO
THOSE AREAS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/092 060/092 064/097 064/098 064/097 063/091 061/090
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/089 051/091 052/095 052/095 055/092 053/088 049/089
    22/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/093 060/095 062/098 063/099 062/101 061/091 059/092
    42/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 064/094 064/094 065/099 066/100 066/098 063/091 061/091
    52/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 064/093 062/092 065/099 067/099 065/096 064/090 061/088
    52/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 063/091 064/093 064/097 066/098 064/096 067/091 061/090
    52/T    31/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 058/092 058/092 060/096 060/096 060/097 059/089 057/090
    21/U    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-151630-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
1025 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES CAN LEAD TO HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE...SO PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF YOU ARE
PLANNING ON PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

EXPECT WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE GRADUALLY. NONETHELESS...RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
FAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AND CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
NEAR ANY WATERWAY UNTIL LEVELS SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
228 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028-034-042-142130-
GOLDEN VALLEY MT-NORTHERN STILLWATER MT-SOUTHERN WHEATLAND MT-
228 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEATLAND...
SOUTHWESTERN GOLDEN VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHERN STILLWATER COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 225 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RYEGATE...MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT RYEGATE BETWEEN 300 PM AND 330 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4629 10905 4602 10935 4603 10942 4604 10942
      4604 10951 4605 10960 4636 10950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 201DEG 11KT 4607 10946

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028-041-142200-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS MT-SOUTHERN WHEATLAND MT-
300 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WHEATLAND AND NORTHERN
SWEET GRASS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 257 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLOWTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TWODOT AROUND 315 PM MDT.
BARBER AROUND 320 PM MDT.
HARLOWTON AROUND 335 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4645 10968 4616 10999 4624 11020 4655 11010
      4655 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 217DEG 24KT 4626 11001

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
323 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ028-063-142200-
JUDITH GAP MT-SOUTHERN WHEATLAND MT-
323 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WHEATLAND COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

AT 321 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARLOWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL WHEATLAND COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4658 10937 4627 10983 4640 11002 4670 10965
      4670 10957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 223DEG 28KT 4640 10983

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
344 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ034-039-056-142215-
EASTERN CARBON MT-NORTHERN STILLWATER MT-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS MT-
344 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARBON AND EASTERN
STILLWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 339 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS TO BRIDGER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT BRIDGER...FROMBERG...JOLIET...ROCKVALE...
SILESIA...PARK CITY AND EDGAR THROUGH 415 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4524 10917 4557 10932 4570 10891 4566 10889
      4559 10879 4556 10880 4556 10877 4553 10876
      4552 10874 4544 10868 4524 10870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 258DEG 19KT 4555 10915 4526 10895

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
407 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

MTZ035-038-057-142300-
NORTHERN BIG HORN MT-SOUTHERN BIG HORN MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
407 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BIG HORN AND SOUTHERN
YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 400 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH...OR 31 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ST. XAVIER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 477 AND 489.

THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF BILLINGS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4585 10793 4560 10746 4539 10783 4532 10814
      4542 10837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 221DEG 18KT 4542 10816