Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Burlington, VT

884 
WWUS51 KBTV 261709
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYC019-031-033-VTC007-011-013-261800-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110526T1800Z/
GRAND ISLE VT-ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-FRANKLIN NY-CHITTENDEN VT-
FRANKLIN VT-
109 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN...CLINTON AND NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND FRANKLIN...NORTHERN CHITTENDEN AND GRAND
ISLE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

AT 106 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS
EXTENDED FROM BUTLER ISLAND TO PERU...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  SHELDON SPRINGS...EAST HIGHGATE...LAKE CARMI STATE PARK...WEST
  BERKSHIRE...RICHFORD...BERKSHIRE...STEVENS MILLS...ENOSBURG
  CENTER...MONTGOMERY CENTER...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOATERS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW! STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS MAY OVERTURN BOATS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY
IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 7256 4486 7254 4480 7261 4479 7274
      4473 7279 4470 7280 4471 7285 4466 7289
      4465 7293 4457 7285 4445 7298 4443 7401
      4489 7354 4503 7281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 249DEG 43KT 4484 7318 4459 7353

$$

020 
WWUS51 KBTV 261723
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYC019-031-033-VTC007-011-013-261800-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110526T1800Z/
GRAND ISLE VT-ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-FRANKLIN NY-CHITTENDEN VT-
FRANKLIN VT-
123 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON AND NORTHEASTERN
ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND FRANKLIN...NORTHERN
CHITTENDEN AND GRAND ISLE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

AT 119 PM EDT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING ONE INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM ST. ALBANS BAY STATE PARK TO EXIT 35
I87...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

AT 120 PM EDT HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL IN SCHUYLER 
FALLS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  SHELDON SPRINGS...EAST HIGHGATE...SHELDON...SHELDON JUNCTION...
  ENOSBURG FALLS...BERKSHIRE...EAST FAIRFIELD...FAIRFAX...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOATERS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW! STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS MAY OVERTURN BOATS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY
IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 7256 4486 7254 4480 7261 4479 7274
      4470 7280 4471 7285 4466 7289 4465 7292
      4456 7287 4445 7298 4443 7401 4483 7352
      4503 7283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 255DEG 29KT 4485 7310 4460 7344

$$

641 
WWUS51 KBTV 261736
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYC033-261746-
/O.CAN.KBTV.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110526T1800Z/
FRANKLIN NY-
136 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK IS CANCELLED...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4501 7256 4486 7254 4480 7261 4479 7274
      4472 7279 4471 7281 4471 7285 4466 7289
      4465 7293 4456 7287 4445 7298 4445 7346
      4486 7343 4503 7284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 255DEG 29KT 4488 7294 4463 7329

$$

NYC019-031-VTC007-011-013-261800-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110526T1800Z/
GRAND ISLE VT-ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-CHITTENDEN VT-FRANKLIN VT-
136 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CLINTON AND NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK...AND FRANKLIN...NORTHERN CHITTENDEN AND GRAND ISLE COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

AT 132 PM EDT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED PRODUCING
ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM SHELDON TO JACKSON POINT...AND WERE
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  FAIRFAX...ENOSBURG FALLS...EAST FAIRFIELD...EAST ENOSBURG...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP.
IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY
IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 7256 4486 7254 4480 7261 4479 7274
      4472 7279 4471 7281 4471 7285 4466 7289
      4465 7293 4456 7287 4445 7298 4445 7346
      4486 7343 4503 7284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 255DEG 29KT 4488 7294 4463 7329

$$

244 
WWUS51 KBTV 261749
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYC031-261759-
/O.CAN.KBTV.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110526T1800Z/
ESSEX NY-
149 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK IS CANCELLED...

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4501 7256 4486 7254 4480 7261 4479 7274
      4472 7280 4471 7285 4466 7289 4465 7293
      4456 7287 4457 7336 4487 7334 4503 7285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 255DEG 29KT 4490 7279 4465 7315

$$

NYC019-VTC007-011-013-261800-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110526T1800Z/
GRAND ISLE VT-CLINTON NY-CHITTENDEN VT-FRANKLIN VT-
149 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND
FRANKLIN...NORTHERN CHITTENDEN AND SOUTHERN GRAND ISLE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST VERMONT...

AT 144 PM EDT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING ONE INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE
SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM ENOSBURG FALLS TO WEST MILTON...AND WERE
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  EAST FAIRFIELD...FAIRFAX...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 7256 4486 7254 4480 7261 4479 7274
      4472 7280 4471 7285 4466 7289 4465 7293
      4456 7287 4457 7336 4487 7334 4503 7285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 255DEG 29KT 4490 7279 4465 7315

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
VERMONT. AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHWEST VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
PRONOUNCED CLOUD SHIELD. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY/EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAME AREA AS STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT COULD
ALSO ENHANCE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 451 AM EDT THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO THE LOCATION OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH MID-RANGE MODELS DIFFERING A BIT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. A LARGE FACTOR IN THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
BE WHATEVER STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY COOL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE REGION ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BEST INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH LESSER CHANCES AND COOLER
AIR NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHEAR NEWD
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OVER REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE AND NARROW
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PW
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS. WITH
GENERALLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS...SOUTH WINDS...AND MOIST
CONDITIONS...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. BNDRY RETREATS NWD
AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY WITH NORTH COUNTRY GENERALLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND SW FLOW IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SHOULD BE THE START OF
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. THAT
SAID...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 21Z SREF/SPC
CALIBRATED TSTM PROBS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT BETWEEN 18-21Z
SATURDAY. DAYTIME WINDS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S-SW
AT 10-15 MPH AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE LOW TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD FROM THE GULF
COAST ALL THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL REPRESENT A
TRANSITION TOWARD HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS. AIR MASS
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. LOW 90S CAN/T BE RULED OUT
FOR THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY WITH 00Z GFS
INDICATING 850MB TEMPS +18 TO +20C...AND ECMWF +20C TO +22C. HAVE
NOTED IN THE PAST A SLIGHT WARM BIAS IN ECMWF TEMPS IN SIMILAR
SITUATIONS...SO WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THEREAFTER STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP SUN NIGHT THRU TUESDAY DRY.

RIDGE FLATTENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING PERIOD OF POSSIBLE SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
35 MPH AFTER FROPA BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. SEEING SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD
AFFECT TEMPS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO +3 TO +4C LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES ALSO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY
THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR 850MB TEMPERATURES. WILL INDICATE HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAY ONLY SEE 60S FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS AS WARM FRONTAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT HAS EXITED THE REGION AND
WE'LL BE IN THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. MAIN AVIATION ISSUE
THEREAFTER WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND AND AFTER 18Z. HARD TO NAIL DOWN EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS AT
THIS JUNCTURE SO HAVE JUST MENTIONED VCTS AND CB'S FOR NOW. SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE TERMINAL IMPACTS CLOSER TO THE 18Z TAFS
AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. DO EXPECT TO EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR/IFR
AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...AND SO DO THE WINDS.
LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR LOW CIGS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOCALLY DOWN TO VLIFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...LOW CIGS/VSBY BURNING OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR.
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPING...LIKELY REDUCING CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES.
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH COMBINED WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RISES
ON SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
DISCUSSIONS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME A MAJOR FACTOR ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING WITH WAVES
BUILDING INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. SEICHE EFFECTS FROM THE WIND
WILL CAUSE THE LAKE LEVEL TO RISE TO NEAR 102.7 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY...WITH SOME EROSION TO SOUTH
FACING SHORELINES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME BY LATE AFTN /15-25
KNOTS/...THEN BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

FOR BOATERS MANY HAZARDS STILL EXIST. BREAKWATER AND OTHER ROCKS
OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO NAVIGATION MAY BE OBSCURED BY THE HIGH WATER
LEVELS ON THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...PLENTY OF DEBRIS REMAIN IN THE
LAKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER MOUTHS. LASTLY...THE NEAR-SHORE LAKE
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY WARMED TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO POTENTIAL HYPOTHERMIC CONDITIONS IF ONE WERE TO FALL INTO
THE WATER. DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS...RECREATIONAL BOATING IS
DISCOURAGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ001>009-016>018.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>009-016>018-271415-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF NEW YORK BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
VERMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND
ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VTZ010>012-019-271415-
ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOWARD EVENING AND ANY STORMS WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND
ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

EVENSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ026-027-029-030-087-261515-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
1015 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ST. LAWRENCE AND WESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 1013 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FOWLER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
TALCVILLE...EDWARDS...SOUTH RUSSELL...RUSSELL...SOUTH COLTON...WEST
PIERREPONT...PARISHVILLE...STARK...NICHOLVILLE...HOPKINTON...ST.
REGIS FALLS...DICKINSON...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FUTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

LAT...LON 4492 7440 4429 7424 4410 7519 4424 7552
      4425 7552 4442 7548

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1055 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ029-087-261600-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
1055 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...

AT 1048 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEAR PHILADELPHIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
FOWLER...TALCVILLE...EDWARDS...SOUTH RUSSELL...DEGRASSE...RUSSELL...
STARK...SOUTH COLTON...CARRY FALLS RESERVOIR...PARISHVILLE...LAKE
OZONIA...NICHOLVILLE...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

LAT...LON 4472 7461 4465 7459 4411 7455 4405 7509
      4429 7562

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1153 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ028-030-031-261700-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-WESTERN CLINTON NY-
1153 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND CLINTON
COUNTIES...

AT 1151 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 4 MILES EAST OF
MADAWASKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
DEBAR MOUNTAIN...WOLF POND...LOON LAKE...STANDISH...RIVERVIEW...CHAZY
LAKE...LYON MOUNTAIN...DANNEMORA...CADYVILLE...JERICHO...WEST
BEEKMANTOWN...WEST CHAZY...

WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. STAY IN SAFE SHELTER AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER
YOU HEAR THE LAST CLAP OF THUNDER.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FUTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

LAT...LON 4500 7350 4463 7345 4448 7439 4455 7443

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1201 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     HAIL             SOUTH EDWARDS           44.27N  75.21W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC

1158 AM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTH EDWARDS           44.27N  75.21W
05/26/2011  E65 MPH          ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100067
EVENT NUMBER BTV1100068

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             SOUTH EDWARDS           44.27N  75.21W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC

1125 AM     TSTM WND GST     SOUTH EDWARDS           44.27N  75.21W
05/26/2011  E65 MPH          ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100067 BTV1100068

CM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001-002-005-016-261745-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE
VT-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-
WESTERN ESSEX NY-WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-
1244 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN TO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BY 1 PM...

AT 1240 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM WEST
PLATTSBURGH TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALDER BROOK...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
POINT AU ROCHE...BEEKMANTOWN...KNIGHT ISLAND STATE PARK...NORTH
HERO...EXIT 20 I89...SWANTON JUNCTION...SHELDON...SHELDON JUNCTION...
NORTH WILLISTON...EXIT 17 I89...WESTFORD...FAIRFAX...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

BOATERS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR. STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS MAY OVERTURN SMALL BOATS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 4502 7286 4444 7305 4442 7422 4500 7347