Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN IMPACTS. LATER TONIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL
BECOME THE MAIN THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL
EXIST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT THURSDAY...TORNADO WATCH 380 CONTINUES THROUGH
8PM TONIGHT. SECOND AREA OF STORMS CONTINUES TO FORM OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK IN INSTABILITY MAXIMUM. INSTABILITY GRADIENT BOUNDARY HAS
ALSO BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.
THUS THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE. TREND
WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND REACH A LINE
FROM ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF
VERMONT BY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAVE
CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL, NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE LONGER TERM PORTION. STILL LOOKING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) AWAY FROM THE VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER WE'VE HAD AS WE START NEXT WEEK. HERE ARE THE DAILY
PARTICULARS.

SATURDAY...
STILL DEALING WITH A PESKY BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND IT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL START PUSHING NORTH AS THE
DAY GOES ON. HAVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WEST -- TOOK A BLEND
BETWEEN NAM AND SREF. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES, BUT WE
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND
CLOSE TO 80. WILL BE A BIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, THOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, SO
LESSER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR REGION. AGAIN, KEPT CLOSE
TO SREF/NAM BLEND. LESS PRECIP AND A LITTLE MORE SUN SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP EVEN A BIT MORE, PROBABLY MID 80S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REALLY STARTS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND NUDGING INTO OUR AREA. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP, BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 15-18C RANGE, WE'LL LIKELY BE WAY UP INTO THE 80S.
THAT HEAT COULD STILL POP A STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. WENT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. COULD SEE NEAR 90F IN THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE ALL ON BOARD FOR THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO REALLY BE IN
CONTROL. THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY PRECIP,
ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT DAY (AND HUMID TOO). AGAIN
WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
18-20C, WE WILL EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES OF 90-92F IN THE VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...
COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY, THOUGH THIS IS BASED ON ONLY SUBTLE
CLUES IN THE MODELS. WE STILL HAVE THE BIG RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
AND STRONG JET NEAR/JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THAT WOULD MEAN WE ARE
IN THE POTENTIAL RING OF FIRE. MODELS SHOW A LARGE EML (ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER) IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WE'LL
HAVE A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ZIPPING BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO IS ONE THAT CAN GIVE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY. NOT CONFIDENT IN ALL THOSE DETAILS TO COME
TOGETHER AT THIS POINT, SO JUST HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS -- BUT WE
COULD BE FACING SOME SORT OF MCS OR MCS REMNANT COMING ACROSS AT
SOME POINT IN THE DAY.

THURSDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, THE BIG UPPER RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH A
BIT, ALLOWING WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO COME ON DOWN BRINGING
A COOLER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...AS OF 1730Z, A CLUSTER OF T-STORMS ARE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN VERMONT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE A LOT OF VCTS IN THE TAFS, AND WILL
ATTEMPT TO BETTER TIME ANY STORMS THAT WILL IMPACT ANY TERMINALS.
WILL HAVE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AFTER T-STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THEN ULTIMATELY SOME
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS -- ESPECIALLY NORTHERN REGIONS. SUSPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, IT SHOULD BE VFR.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS. MAY BE LOCALLY IFR IN
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR.
00Z MONDAY-23Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 349 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND
EXIST AGAIN ON FRIDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH COMBINED
WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RISES ON SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE
FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SHIFTING
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 349 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BOATERS MANY HAZARDS STILL EXIST.
BREAKWATER AND OTHER ROCKS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO NAVIGATION MAY BE
OBSCURED BY THE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON THE LAKE. IN ADDITION...PLENTY
OF DEBRIS REMAIN IN THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER MOUTHS.
LASTLY...THE NEAR-SHORE LAKE TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY WARMED TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL HYPOTHERMIC
CONDITIONS IF ONE WERE TO FALL INTO THE WATER. DUE TO THE ABOVE
FACTORS...RECREATIONAL BOATING IS DISCOURAGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>009-
     016>018.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LAHIFF/NASH
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
MARINE...EVENSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>009-016>018-271915-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
315 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 380 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF VERMONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND
ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VTZ010>012-019-271915-
ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND-
315 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 380 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING AND ANY STORMS WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT ON FRIDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND
ANY PERSISTENT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

EVENSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW CAMBRIDGE         44.65N  72.89W
05/26/2011                   FRANKLIN           VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND PENNY SIZE HAIL

0600 PM     HAIL             1 WNW CAMBRIDGE         44.65N  72.89W
05/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100131
EVENT NUMBER BTV1100132

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMBRIDGE               44.64N  72.88W
05/26/2011                   LAMOILLE           VT   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE CAMBRIDGE
            JEFFERSONSVILLE AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100133

SLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 S IRASVILLE           44.16N  72.84W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100134

SLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             2 W BARRE               44.20N  72.55W
05/26/2011  E2.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         VT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL REPORTED BY LOCAL POLICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100135

SLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             1 S EAST JOHNSON        44.63N  72.66W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAMOILLE           VT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON COLLINS HILL ROAD BY
            LOCAL TV METEOROLOGIST

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100136

SLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BERLIN             44.24N  72.55W
05/26/2011                   WASHINGTON         VT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN ALONG POINT RIDGE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1100137

SLW